If gasoline hits record prices this summer, how much will it hurt President Obama's re-election chances?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
Americans' pain at the gas pump could mean pain on election night for President Obama come November.
The national average for regular unleaded gasoline is now $3.52 a gallon, according to the Energy Department. That's up more than 4 cents a gallon from a week ago, and experts are predicting that this summer, gas prices could go higher. Much higher. Think record highs.
Gasoline could top $4 a gallon by June, and in some places it could be near $5. Big cities like Chicago and San Francisco could be especially hard hit.
According to AAA, the all-time high U.S. average was $4.11 a gallon in the summer of 2008. We could easily hit a new record as summer driving season kicks into high gear and Obama gears up for the fall campaign.
Consider that when Obama took office in January of 2009, the average cost for a gallon of gas was $1.79. Gas prices have almost doubled since he took office, and they're headed higher.
There are several reasons for the jump in gasoline prices - including the possibility of war in the Middle East. There's also the closing of refineries, along with the increased demand for gasoline as summer travel season approaches. Plus the government requires a switch from cheaper winter gas formulations to more expensive summer ones.
But all those reasons aside, whether it's fair or not - the American motoring public has always tended to blame the guy in the White House for high gas prices.
Here’s my question to you: If gasoline hits record prices this summer, how much will it hurt President Obama's re-election chances?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
How worried should President Obama be about winning a second term?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
As the Republican candidates keep tearing each other apart, President Obama may want to start worrying about November - if he hasn't already.
New Gallup state-by-state polling on the president's approval rating suggests he might be in trouble.
Overall, President Obama averaged a 44% job approval in his third year in office - down from 47% in his second year.
According to gallup, his approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in 47 of the 50 states. Not good.
The president's approval rating was above 50% last year in only 10 states plus the District of Columbia.
Gallup suggests that the state approval rating could provide some clues into how President Obama will fare in the electoral college.
If the president were to carry only the states where more people approved than disapproved of him last year, he would lose to the Republican nominee 323 to 215. That's landslide territory.
And Politico reports on several additional factors working against the president.
The congressional budget office says unemployment is likely to climb to 9% by the election.
There's polling that shows President Obama tied or trailing Mitt Romney in key swing states.
And there's growing evidence that the idea that the president will raise a lot more money than the Republicans just isn't true.
Of course there are still nine months to go before the election; and we don't know yet who the Republican nominee will be, or if there will be a third party candidate - which could work to Mr. Obama's advantage.
Nevertheless...
Here’s my question to you: How worried should President Obama be about winning a second term?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
What does it mean for President Obama that Americans' dissatisfaction with the economy has skyrocketed since 2008?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
As President Obama heads out to campaign for re-election, he has his work cut out for him.
A new Gallup poll shows Americans are "broadly dissatisfied" with the state of the nation on many issues – and in some cases, that satisfaction has dropped off a cliff since 2008.
The most toxic issue for Americans? The economy, which also happens to be the top issue on most voters' minds.
Only 13% of those surveyed in this poll say they are satisfied with the state of the economy. 13%.
Most ominously for Mr. Obama, that's a 23-point drop since January of 2008, the year before he took office.
This is the lowest rate of satisfaction and the biggest decline in the last four years for any of the 24 issues Gallup measured.
Up next: Fewer than 3 in 10 Americans are satisfied with both the moral and ethical climate in the country and the size and power of the federal government. There's been a double-digit drop in satisfaction for both these issues since 2008.
There's more: Most Americans are also dissatisfied with the level of immigration into the country and with the nation's efforts to deal with poverty.
No surprise there with more than 46 million Americans living below the poverty line and a record number on food stamps.
On the plus side, Americans are most satisfied with the overall quality of life in the U.S. along with the nation's security from terrorism and its military strength.
But if you buy the election year admonition, "It's the economy, stupid," then where President Obama is concerned, it's a problem.
Here’s my question to you: What does it mean for President Obama that Americans' dissatisfaction with the economy has skyrocketed since 2008?
Tune in to the Situation Room at 4pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.
And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.
How would President Obama's second term look different from his first?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
President Obama wants four more years in the White House, but if he wins a second term - which is still a big "if" at this point - it's unclear what exactly it would look like.
A piece in Politico describes the president's agenda as "blurry" this time around.
Which is a far cry from the 2008 campaign. In addition to "hope," "change" and "Yes we can," then-candidate Obama ran on a long list of issues from health care reform to ending the Iraq war to imposing tighter regulations on Wall Street.
He also promised a new era of bipartisanship in Washington - and we all know how well that turned out. Washington, and the entire country, may be more bitterly divided today than at almost any time in our history.
Here's the thing about a potential second term: Unless Democrats win big in Congress, it's likely the next four years would only bring more division. That's why Mr. Obama's message may be more about stopping the Republicans than about what he can get done.
There are some items left on the president's to-do list, like a long-term budget deal and immigration reform. But don't hold your breath on those political hot potatoes in a divided Washington.
Other than that, the president is expected to campaign on the proper role for government and creating more fairness in society. This is the class warfare stuff we talked about last hour in the Cafferty File.
Meanwhile don't bet on getting too many answers in President Obama's State of the Union tonight.
Past presidents have mostly used the address to defend their first term record - instead of laying out an agenda for a second term.
Here’s my question to you: How would President Obama's second term look different from his first?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Can President Obama win re-election without the support of independents?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
President Obama has a serious problem with independents - and it just might cost him a second term.
A new CBS/New York Times poll shows only 31% of independents have a favorable opinion of Mr. Obama.
Compare that to 2008, when Mr. Obama defeated John McCain by winning 52% of the independent vote.
According to this poll:
2/3 of independents say the president has not made real progress in fixing the economy, the nation's top issue.
More than half say they don't have a clear idea of what Mr. Obama hopes to accomplish if he is re-elected.
6 in 10 independents say the president doesn't share their priorities for the country.
None of this is good news for the president. It's no coincidence Mr. Obama is out with his first major TV advertising campaign today in several battleground states. One of the targets of this campaign: the crucial swing voters.
The news is not all bad here for Mr. Obama, though. There could be an opening for the president to win back some of these independents.
Although Republicans think Mitt Romney has the best chance of beating Mr. Obama - and it's looking more and more like Romney will be the nominee - almost half of independents say they haven't formed an opinion of him yet.
Nevertheless, for the time being, many independents are disappointed and disillusioned with President Obama and the state of the country. They think the president has failed to deliver on many of his promises of four years ago; and if the election were held today, a lot of them wouldn't vote for him.
Here’s my question to you: Can President Obama win re-election without the support of independents?
Tune in to the Situation Room at 4pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.
And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.
How damaging is it when a Democratic congressman criticizes President Obama as a "professor" who is arrogant and alienating?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
It's the kind of thing you'd expect to hear from Republicans, but not Democrats.
Congressman Dennis Cardoza - a Democrat - is blasting President Obama as being more like a professor who is arrogant and alienating.
The five-term congressman from California, who's retiring at the end of this term, writes in "The Hill" that it's become obvious that the president might prefer to be a university professor.
Cardoza says the Obama administration suffers from something he calls idea disease: They roll out new programs weekly - and sometimes daily - without any priorities and often with little follow up.
Cardoza also writes that President Obama has an "I'm right, you're wrong" attitude. He says this arrogant demeanor has alienated many potential allies.
The Democratic congressman suggests the president avoids personal contact with members of Congress and people outside the beltway - it's not the first time we've heard this critique.
Although President Obama gives speeches to big crowds, he avoids individual contact. This sounds like the polar opposite of Bill Clinton, who fed off contact with "regular people."
This "arms length" attitude extends to top Obama officials. Cardoza describes a senior housing official who crafted policies for the foreclosure crisis - but who never bothered to personally meet with a homeowner who had been foreclosed on. Pretty shocking.
Despite this disparaging picture of the president, Cardoza says he would still take "Professor" Obama over the "goat rodeo clowns" the Republican field offers."
But he worries the voters might give the president a failing grade in November if he doesn't improve his performance.
Here’s my question to you: How damaging is it when a Democratic congressman criticizes President Obama as a "professor" who is arrogant and alienating?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Which GOP candidate – Romney or Gingrich – is more likely to beat Pres. Obama?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
It's a high stakes game the Republican nominees for president are playing. If the election was held today, President Obama would likely lose. At this moment he is vulnerable and then some.
A recent Gallup Poll puts President Obama's approval rating almost three years into his first term lower than any other president in modern history...including Jimmy Carter. That's being vulnerable and then some. Jimmy Carter?
Gallup has President Obama's approval at 43%. The only other president in modern times with an approval rating almost that low was Lyndon Johnson - 44%... and he didn't run for a second term.
Over on the Republican side, Newt Gingrich has to be scaring the hell out of long-time presumed nominee Mitt Romney.
Gingrich has jumped to the top of the pack in national polls - and he's leading in key early voting states like Iowa and South Carolina.
And check out these numbers in the critical swing state of Florida:
A new American Research Group poll shows Gingrich with 50% to Romney's 19%. That's a 39-point jump for Gingrich since last month. If numbers like these hold in a state like Florida, it may be difficult for any of the other candidates to touch Gingrich.
Actually at this point it's probably safe to say the Republican nomination boils down to a race between Romney and Gingrich.
A recent CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll shows 40% of Republicans think Romney has the best chance of beating President Obama. 21% say Gingrich. But maybe this particular poll didn't ask you... so we will.
Here’s my question to you: Which Republican candidate – Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich – is more likely to beat President Obama?
Tune in to the Situation Room at 5pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.
And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.
When it comes to being president, which is more important: the ability to solve the country's problems or personal character?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
As Newt Gingrich continues his meteoric rise in the polls, there's one key issue that could hold him back: Character. Or will it?
A new Quinnipiac Poll shows the former House Speaker scores higher than Mitt Romney on most key leadership traits - except for personal character.
For example: Republican voters say Newt Gingrich is a stronger leader than Romney - by 34% to 24%.
They say he's stronger on foreign policy... 46% to 16%.
And they say Gingrich has the right "knowledge and experience" to be president - by 48% to 22%. These are huge margins.
But Gingrich trails Romney 32% to 9% when it comes to who has a "strong moral character."
A lot of that likely goes back to Gingrich's personal baggage, including his three marriages and his infidelity.
Overall, Gingrich places at the top of the Republican pack in this survey, with 26% compared to Romney's 22%. In a head-to-head match-up, Gingrich does even better, topping Romney by 10 points.
But it might not matter. Even though Republicans find Gingrich competent and ready to deal with the nation's problems, they worry about his character.
And this is at least part of the reason why: By a double-digit margin, Republicans say Romney has the best chance of beating President Obama; and by an overwhelming margin, they say Romney is most likely to be the Republican nominee.
It's interesting that at a time when our nation is facing a boatload of very serious problems - from the national debt to the economy, unemployment, ongoing wars, etc. - a lot of people are more hung up on personal character than about the ability to lead.
Here’s my question to you: When it comes to being president, which is more important: the ability to solve the country's problems or personal character?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Should Pres. Obama hand the reins of the Democratic Party to Hillary Clinton?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
It's time for President Obama to step aside and hand the reins of the Democratic Party to Hillary Clinton.
This rather radical idea is coming from two Democratic pollsters in a Wall Street Journal piece called "The Hillary Moment."
Patrick Caddell and Douglas Schoen argue that Obama should follow in the footsteps of Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson. Both presidents "took the moral high road" and abandoned a run for a second term when they realized they could not effectively govern.
Caddell and Schoen say that never before has there been such an "obvious potential successor" as Hillary Clinton. They say she would save the Democratic Party and be able to get things done in Washington. They think Clinton is the only leader capable of uniting the country around a bipartisan economic and foreign policy.
They point to Clinton's experience as first lady, senator and now secretary of state - suggesting she is more qualified than any presidential candidate in recent memory, including her husband.
Although Clinton says she's not interested in running, polls suggest she might do pretty well:
In September, her approval rating was at an all-time high of 69%. Another poll shows Clinton leading Mitt Romney by 17 points in a hypothetical matchup.
Caddell and Schoen say Obama could still win re-election in 2012, but only by waging a negative campaign, which would ultimately make the gridlock in Washington even worse.
If Obama isn't willing to step aside, they think Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi should urge him to do so.
The pollsters say they're writing as "patriots and Democrats," have had no contact with Clinton's people, and don't expect to play a direct role in any potential campaign.
Here’s my question to you: Should President Obama step aside and hand the reins of the Democratic Party to Hillary Clinton?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Can President Obama win re-election if almost two-thirds of whites are opposed to him?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
With just about a year to ago until Election Day, the U.S. is a racially divided nation when it comes to President Barack Obama.
Consider this: A new CNN/Opinion Research Poll shows 61% of whites disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job vs. 36% who don’t – that’s almost two-to-one. For non-whites, it's almost the mirror image. Only 32% disapprove while 67% approve.
For a president who was supposed to symbolize a post-racial America, this is not good news. When Obama defeated John McCain in 2008, he did it with significant support from white Americans.
Exit polls showed Obama won 43% of white voters. That was the largest share of white support in a two-man race since 1976. Among young white voters, Obama did even better, getting 54% of their support. If Obama wants a second term, he needs to win back support from more white Americans in the coming months.
Meanwhile our new poll shows other results that could spell trouble for Obama. Overall, he gets a 46% approval rating, with 52% saying they disapprove.
When you compare that rating with recent incumbents running for re-election, the president ranks only above Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford. They both lost their re-election bids. Most incumbents who win re-election had an approval rating above 50% a year before the election.
Finally, the poll shows 54% of the crucial independent voters disapprove of the job Obama is doing.
The president has got his work cut out for him.
Here’s my question to you: Can President Obama win re-election if almost two-thirds of whites are opposed to him?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
@jackcafferty on Twitter
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