How much faith do you have in an online betting site to pick the winner in the Republican primary?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
While some of us obsess over the polls, maybe there's a better way:
In Ireland there is an online betting parlor which boasts stunning accuracy in predicting the outcome of elections.
Intrade is a website which lets users swap contracts on events and its users are amazingly good at getting election results right.
In the 2004 presidential election Intrade bettors correctly picked the winner of every single state. In 2008 - they missed only two.
And, not to discourage the gaggle of GOP wannabees this year, but according to Intrade they have no shot. None.
Intrade pegs Romney at an 80% chance of winning the nomination. The next closest candidate is Newt Gingrich at 5%.
Which means the crop of Republican hopefuls can probably go home now and dream of what might have been.
Granted some of them will now that Iowa is over - see Michele Bachmann - and especially after New Hampshire is over, where Romney is expected to win by a landslide.
But there will likely be a few who refuse to recognize reality and instead stumble forward into South Carolina and beyond, spending other people's money, banging their jaws together in a never-ending quest to avoid what in their heart of hearts they know is going to happen anyway: They're going to lose.
And according to Intrade, if their name isn't Romney, they've already lost.
So wouldn't it be better if they just went away? Yes, it would. For all of us.
We're one week into the election year and I'm already tired of it.
I remember the national root canal that was Barack Obama vs. Hillary Clinton... as the two of them lurched from one primary to the next in a vicious knife fight for delegates that I thought would never end.
In the end, the country has a clear case of political fatigue.
If you believe Intrade, we can avoid all that.
Here’s my question to you: How much faith do you have in an online betting site to pick the winner in the Republican primary?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
What does Mitt Romney have to do to recapture his front-runner status?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
With three weeks to go until the Iowa caucuses, the pressure is squarely on Mitt Romney. It wasn't supposed to go this way at all. The Republican presidential nomination was supposed to be a coronation for Romney. But instead, Romney finds himself chasing Newt Gingrich, and Gingrich is pulling away.
In New Hampshire, Romney and Gingrich took off the gloves, throwing direct jabs at each other. Romney can no longer simply remain above the fray. The fray has frayed his lead rather badly.
New Hampshire was once considered a sure thing for Romney. Now it could be a make-or-break contest for him.
One New Hampshire pollster tells The New York Times that expectations are so high for Romney there that Gingrich could lose by 10 percentage points and still spin it as a win.
Gingrich – who is leading in the national polls as well as in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida – has narrowed the gap in New Hampshire to just 9 points in one recent poll.
What's working in Romney's favor is that New Hampshire voters think he's much more likely to beat President Obama than Gingrich is.
But these voters don't appear excited by Romney ... and the momentum is clearly with Gingrich.
For example, Gingrich held a town-hall-style meeting for a 1,000-person overflow crowd at a New Hampshire high school on Monday night. The applause was described as "deafening."
Meanwhile, Howard Kurtz writes in the Daily Beast that it's not time to rule out Romney just yet. Kurtz suggests that Romney is still a plausible president in these tough economic times and that his campaign is financed for the long haul. Maybe so, but remember, Romney already lost this race once. He's the same guy voters rejected four years ago.
Kurtz says Romney needs to demonstrate real passion and can't simply wait for Gingrich to self-destruct.
Oh, and he should probably stop making $10,000 bets.
Here’s my question to you: What does Mitt Romney have to do to recapture his front-runner status?
Tune in to the Situation Room at 4pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.
And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.
GOPers say Gingrich a favorite uncle, Romney a missing father?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
In a presidential election, a lot of things come into play when determining the outcome.
Our country is beset with countless serious problems. For starters, we're broke, we're not creating jobs the way we need to and congress and Washington are a divided, dysfunctional mess.
So every four years we get to listen to candidates who come forward with ideas about how to make our lives better. Like the candidates themselves, some of the ideas are good and others are not.
But at the end of the day, it's often the likeability or the power of a candidate to connect with voters that makes the difference.
On the Republican side, the choice increasingly looks like it's between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.
And one study found some interesting differences between the two men. Democratic pollster Peter Hart has described a focus group of Republican primary voters done for the Annenberg Public Policy Center.
When asked what relative Gingrich reminded them of, several Republicans said a favorite uncle or a grandfather. They described Romney as a "missing father" or a second cousin. Not exactly warm and fuzzy feelings for Romney.
Just one more strike against the one-time presumed nominee.
Meanwhile, Politico reports on the many reasons why Gingrich might win this thing, including:
Romney being forced to play catch-up; Gingrich's message being perfect for the anti-Washington Times; Gingrich rocking the debates, which are drawing huge audiences; the Obama campaign doing much of the anti-Romney work; social conservatives distrusting Romney, and Gingrich has momentum on his side, with the first four states voting in January.
Here's my question to you: What does it mean when Republicans say Newt Gingrich reminds them of a favorite uncle or grandfather, while Mitt Romney reminds them of a missing father or second cousin?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Which GOP candidate – Romney or Gingrich – is more likely to beat Pres. Obama?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
It's a high stakes game the Republican nominees for president are playing. If the election was held today, President Obama would likely lose. At this moment he is vulnerable and then some.
A recent Gallup Poll puts President Obama's approval rating almost three years into his first term lower than any other president in modern history...including Jimmy Carter. That's being vulnerable and then some. Jimmy Carter?
Gallup has President Obama's approval at 43%. The only other president in modern times with an approval rating almost that low was Lyndon Johnson - 44%... and he didn't run for a second term.
Over on the Republican side, Newt Gingrich has to be scaring the hell out of long-time presumed nominee Mitt Romney.
Gingrich has jumped to the top of the pack in national polls - and he's leading in key early voting states like Iowa and South Carolina.
And check out these numbers in the critical swing state of Florida:
A new American Research Group poll shows Gingrich with 50% to Romney's 19%. That's a 39-point jump for Gingrich since last month. If numbers like these hold in a state like Florida, it may be difficult for any of the other candidates to touch Gingrich.
Actually at this point it's probably safe to say the Republican nomination boils down to a race between Romney and Gingrich.
A recent CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll shows 40% of Republicans think Romney has the best chance of beating President Obama. 21% say Gingrich. But maybe this particular poll didn't ask you... so we will.
Here’s my question to you: Which Republican candidate – Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich – is more likely to beat President Obama?
Tune in to the Situation Room at 5pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.
And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.
Which GOP candidate benefits most from Gov. Christie's decision not to run for president?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has shut the door on a 2012 presidential run, saying "now is not my time."
Christie says he won't abandon the commitment he made to his state as governor – you know, unlike a certain half-term dropout governor of Alaska.
Christie put it this way: "New Jersey, whether you like it or not, you're stuck with me."
This also means that whether Republican voters like it or not, they are stuck with the current crop of Republican candidates.
Unless, that is, Sarah Palin decides she'll get in. But it's getting a little late for that. Plus, more than two-thirds of Republicans say they don't want Palin to run for president.
So with Christie out, it looks like Republicans will nominate either Mitt Romney or Rick Perry, who's sinking fast in the polls.
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Romney leading the pack at 25%.
Perry is now tied for second place with businessman Herman Cain at 16%.
For Perry, that's a whopping 13 percentage-point drop in this poll.
The Texas governor's stock has been falling after a shaky debate performance and questions about where he stands on Social Security and immigration.
Cain, on the other hand, has been surging in national polls after his surprise win in the Florida straw poll – and a flurry of media attention.
Ron Paul is the only other candidate receiving double-digit support in this survey, at 11%.
With primary season sneaking up on us, it's time for Republicans to pick their poison.
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Should Chris Christie join the Republican race?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has said "no" just about every way imaginable when it comes to a presidential run in 2012.
But with a splintered Republican field and lack of enthusiasm, many GOP donors are hoping that "no" really means "yes."
And this time it might. Former New Jersey Governor Tom Kean tells the National Review that Christie is "very seriously" considering running.
Politico reports that he will decide in about a week.
As Rick Perry seems to be fizzling out, supporters think there's a rare historic opportunity for Christie to jump in.
Here's the thing: Chris Christie is the rare politician who does what he says.
As New Jersey governor, he's made tough budget cuts and taken on teachers unions and other entrenched interests.
Christie is pro-life - but not an ideologue - and he doesn't engage in the more extreme rhetoric of the tea party.
As one top Republican who watched Rick Perry's debate performance put it, Christie "can string a sentence together."
Christie's aides tell the Wall Street Journal that the governor has received a "relentless" stream of calls over the last week urging him to run; but they insist that his answer is still "no."
And there are several reasons Christie might yet decide to sit this one out:
He has no national fundraising apparatus. He's been governor for less than two years - which limits his record.
Christie himself has said he doesn't feel in his heart that he is "ready"... and Politico reports a source close to Christie says the governor doesn't think he's prepared on all the issues and is "leery of learning on the fly."
Here’s my question to you: Should Chris Christie join the Republican race?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Are Rick Perry's 15 minutes up?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
Turns out Rick Perry may be all hat and no cattle.
Opponents lobbed the same criticism at another Texas governor and pretend cowboy, George W. Bush.
Watching Perry's most recent debate performance, it looked like he got his cowboy boot stuck in his mouth.
The Texas governor may be fading out of the Republican race as quickly as he shot to the top of the polls last month.
The signs of trouble are stacking up everywhere around Perry, starting with Mitt Romney closing the gap in the national polls. Although Perry is still at the top of the pack, Romney polls stronger against President Obama.
On the state level, Perry is losing one straw poll race after another:
In Florida, businessman Herman Cain pulled a surprise landslide victory. Cain's 37% win topped Perry and Romney combined. Perry was expected to win the Florida straw poll at the start of the weekend, but his underwhelming debate performance put him a distant second.
In Michigan's straw poll, Perry also finished second, this time to Romney, a native of Michigan.
And last week, Perry placed a distant second to Ron Paul in a California straw poll.
These straw polls are only mock elections and don't necessarily reflect how the primaries will go. But, if you are the Republican front-runner, there is an expectation that you win some of them.
An adviser to Jon Huntsman's campaign suggests it is becoming increasingly clear Perry can't perform, saying he has a case of "electile dysfunction."
Perry's people claim the Florida straw poll is a big loss for Mitt Romney, who has been in the campaign for much longer.
Here’s my question to you: Are Rick Perry's 15 minutes up?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Does Rick Perry's lavish lifestyle match his country boy image?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
Rick Perry would have us believe he's a country boy at heart, a down-home cowboy who can relate to the plight of ordinary Americans.
But there's another side to the Texas governor.
Politico reports that for years, Perry – who makes $150,000 a year as governor – has enjoyed additional lavish perks and travel, mostly funded by wealthy supporters.
Texas donors have paid for the governor and his family to travel around the world, sometimes on private jets; stay in luxury hotels and resorts; vacation in Colorado ski towns; and attend tons of sporting events and concerts.
Perry has also accepted a wide range of expensive gifts over the years, including 22 pairs of cowboy boots, some costing more than $500 a pop. Somebody even pays his cable TV bill.
Also, the taxpayers are paying the rent, at $8,500 a month, for Perry's 4,600-square-foot Austin mansion. The governor and his family have been living in the five-bedroom, seven-bath mansion since 2007 while the governor's mansion undergoes repair. Four years? What kind of repairs are those?
But it's all copacetic in the Lone Star State, which has some of the loosest ethics and campaign rules in the country.
Nonetheless, it's hard to imagine that supporters aren't buying influence when they lavish all these perks on the governor.
Some donors have wound up with appointments to state commissions or million-dollar state grants to businesses they're involved in.
Perry's camp insists that this is all on the up and up. A spokeswoman tells Politico that the governor fully discloses all gifts and travel in his financial disclosure statements.
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Is another religious, conservative Republican governor from Texas the answer to our prayers?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
The great Yogi Berra said, "it's like deja vu all over again."
[cnn-photo-caption image=http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/08/09/art.rick.perry.jpg caption=""]
What we have here apparently is another religious, conservative Republican governor from Texas who wants to be president.
Only this one's last name isn't Bush.
Texas Governor Rick Perry is expected to strongly signal his intention to run for president in a speech in South Carolina on Saturday.
Perry's announcement is timed perfectly to upset the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames which is also on Saturday. Although Perry's name isn't on the ballot in Iowa, supporters are waging a write-in campaign.
After the speech in South Carolina, Perry is off to New Hampshire and then to Iowa to headline a fundraiser Sunday night.
The tea party favorite already has a certain appeal among conservatives who are looking for more options in a pretty sad Republican field. Working in Perry's favor, the Texas economy is doing better than most. Almost 40% of all the new jobs created in the U.S. since the recession started are in Texas. The state also has a balanced budget.
But Haven't we been here and done this? We already lived though eight years of a Christian evangelical governor from Texas in the White House... and we're still in therapy from the trauma of that little experiment gone awry.
This past weekend, Perry addressed believers at an all-day prayer vigil in Houston. Perry asked God to help comfort Americans stung by the troubled economy. He also prayed for President Obama.
He did all this in a stadium that was less than half full. And what about that separation of church and state thingy?
Here’s my question to you: Is another religious, conservative Republican governor from Texas the answer to our prayers?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Michele Bachmann's leading in Iowa and Sarah Palin thinks she can be president. Are the Republicans in trouble?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
For a second straight day, a new poll of likely voters in the Iowa caucuses has Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann as the front-runner of the current field of GOP candidates.
[cnn-photo-caption image=http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/07/12/art.bachmann.jpg caption="Michele Bachmann"]
She's big with Tea Party voters, running on smaller government, no new taxes, but she's come under criticism most recently by fellow Minnesotan and GOP hopeful Tim Pawlenty for not having much of a record on anything in Congress. She also has some strong views on social issues that will likely turn independents and more moderate Republicans off.
Last week Bachmann signed something called "The Marriage Vow" penned by a conservative group in Iowa. It's a vow to be faithful to one's spouse and to the Constitution. It condemns adultery, "quickie divorces," and pornography. It also describes homosexuality as a choice. And the initial draft suggested that life was better for black children under slavery because more African-American children are born out of wedlock now than they were back then. Lovely. That part was later edited out and the group claimed it was a misinterpretation.
Is someone who would sign a document like that really the best Republicans can do? Apparently a lot of voters in Iowa think so.
Then there's the question of who else may enter the race...specifically former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin who has been playing games with the media for months now. In this week's Newsweek cover story, Palin says she thinks she can be president. She made these comments following the premiere of a documentary produced by a conservative filmmaker highlighting all the positive aspects of her political career. It's not a long film. Palin also said that even if she's not the nominee - she's not even in the race yet - she thinks President Obama is beatable in 2012. Maybe so…but not by her or Michele Bachmann.
Here’s my question to you: Michele Bachmann's leading in Iowa and Sarah Palin thinks she can be president. Are the Republicans in trouble?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
@jackcafferty on Twitter
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