Would Pres. Obama win a 2nd term if election held today?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
Tonight has the potential to be one of "those" moments for a president - a defining slice in time for Mr. Obama that could determine his relevancy from here on out.
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Nearly 60 days since the worst environmental catastrophe in U.S. history - Pres. Obama will address the American people from the Oval Office for the first time since he was elected.
And the pressure is definitely on. The Gulf Coast oil spill could carry a tremendous political price for Pres. Obama - perhaps putting re-election in 2012 out of his reach.
Lots of people - and we're not just talking Republicans here - are disappointed with the president's response to the oil spill. According to a U.S.A. Today/Gallup poll, seven out of 10 Americans say Mr. Obama has not been tough enough on oil giant BP and a majority rate his response as "poor" or "very poor." An Associated Press poll shows 52 percent disapprove of the way the president is handling the spill.
That means when it comes to tonight's speech - there better be some real meat on that bone and not just more fancy rhetoric delivered with the aid of a teleprompter.
And it's not just about the oil spill. Dana Milbank writes in the Washington Post about Pres. Obama's shrinking popularity. The president's 2008 rival, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, is now more popular than Pres. Obama by any measure - favorability ratings or job approval.
Of course, Clinton is on much safer ground than the president - as she tends to stick to relatively low-profile issues.
But it's still not a good sign for Pres. Obama when the polarizing former First Lady is beating him in the polls... one more reason why all eyes will be on the president tonight.
Here’s my question to you: If the election were held today, would President Obama win a second term?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Will you vote to re-elect your member of Congress in Nov.?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
With only five months before the midterm elections - fewer than one in three Americans say they plan to vote for their member of Congress in November.
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A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows an increasing dislike of elected officials and the anti-incumbent mood at an all-time high. It's about time…
Only 29 percent of those surveyed say they plan to vote for their House representative. That's even lower than in 1994 - when the Democrats were swept out of power. 69 percent say they they're dissatisfied or angry with the government.
Of course Republicans are hoping for big gains; but it might not be that easy. This poll also shows a majority of people have a negative view of the GOP's policies; and only one-third say they trust Republicans over Democrats to handle the country's problems. As for the Tea Party, half of the public has an unfavorable view of them.
Meanwhile voters across the country went to the polls yesterday for the busiest primary day so far this year.
And the results were mixed.
It was a big day for women candidates - in California, Republican primary voters overwhelmingly chose two female business executives. Former Hewlett-Packard head Carly Fiorina will go on to face longtime Senate fixture Democrat Barbara Boxer; and former eBay CEO and billionaire Meg Whitman will run for governor.
In Nevada - the Tea Party-backed candidate, Sharron Angle won the Republican primary and will now challenge Majority Leader Harry Reid in November.
And in Arkansas, Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln managed to hold onto her seat in a tight race... no doubt giving hope to incumbents everywhere.
Here's my question to you: Do you plan to vote to re-elect your member of Congress in November?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
What stories will shape debate going into midterm elections?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
With the midterm elections only months away, Americans are fed up with both major political parties.
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A new Gallup Poll shows near record-low favorable ratings for both Democrats and Republicans. The GOP has a measly 36 percent favorable rating - that's only five points above their all-time low in 1998 when the Republican-led Congress voted to impeach President Clinton.
The Democrats aren't much better. Their favorable rating is only 43 percent - just a couple points higher than their record low, which came during the recent health care debate.
Gallup says that low ratings don't usually occur for both parties simultaneously. Typically when one is down, the other is up. But this just goes to show you how disgusted Americans are with politicians of all stripes these days.
Meanwhile in a piece called "Stories that Could Rock the Summer," Politico looks at some of the issues that could shake up the elections in the next couple of months.
At the top of the list, no surprise: The Gulf oil spill - which could continue into August.
Then there's hurricane season - which is expected to be "very aggressive" and could once again put the focus on the government's preparedness, or lack thereof, for a natural disaster. Plus, don't forget all those other oil wells in the Gulf where the hurricanes blow.
There's also the possibility of a summertime terrorist attack which could certainly affect the midterms... and of course there's the economy. History suggests if unemployment is in double digits, that's bad news for the party in power. Right now we're hovering just below 10 percent. And we'll get a big jobs report on Friday.
Here’s my question to you: What stories will shape the debate going into the fall's midterm elections?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Election results a referendum on Pres. Obama?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
For someone who electrified the electorate during his run for the White House, President Obama isn't getting it done when it comes to helping out his fellow Democrats.
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The losses just keep piling up: First his candidates lost the governor races in New Jersey and Virginia; then came the shocking loss of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts.
And now, Republican-turned-Democrat Senator Arlen Specter - who was backed by the president - has been turned out. His career in the U.S. Senate is over
Suddenly Democratic incumbents are like deer on the opening day of hunting season, running for cover and fearing the worst.
Come November...one or both houses of Congress could fall to the Republicans. As one top Democrat tells the New York Daily News: "If the election were held today we'd lose both houses."
And it seems like the White House is starting to get it. After his guys got their hats handed to them in Massachusetts, Virginia and New Jersey, President Obama pretty much stayed away from Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania.
But it's worth pointing out that some of these candidates didn't want the President's help either; they don't want to get too close to a president with mediocre approval ratings whose policies - like health care reform - aren't popular everywhere.
Meanwhile the White House is busy spinning another awful day the best they can. They claim the race that meant the most was the Pennsylvania congressional seat - where Democrats managed to hold onto the late Congressman Murtha's seat.
The White House also cites weak candidates in the other races as well as a toxic political environment for incumbents.
Here’s my question to you: To what extent are yesterday's election results a referendum on President Obama?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Do you plan to join the political rebellion this year?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
November is shaping up to be a blood-bath for incumbents.
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House Minority Leader John Boehner describes it as a "political rebellion" that's brewing in America. Boehner says the public is awake, involved and irritated at the arrogance of Washington... he says the message is "politicians beware."
And he's right... so far, we've seen incumbents from both parties lose in primaries - including 18-year Utah Republican Senator Robert Bennett and 28-year Democratic congressman Alan Mollohan of West Virginia.
And there are signs that they are only the first to drop... in Pennsylvania, Senator Arlen Specter may soon be on his way to the unemployment line. His primary challenger - congressman Joe Sestak - is surging in the polls and appears to have the momentum headed into next week's election.
Another Democrat, Senator Blanche Lincoln, seems to be on shaky ground in Arkansas' upcoming primary... polls suggest she may not win in the first round of voting and be forced to enter a run-off with her Democratic challenger.
Republicans have been predicting they'll make big gains in November... but that's not necessarily a safe bet. You see, the people are sick of pretty much all the politicians in Washington... Republicans and Democrats.
Take it from someone who's been there... former Idaho Democratic Congressman Larry LaRocca says the 2010 elections will be worse than 1994 for incumbents - that's the year he lost his seat in the big Republican sweep of Congress.
LaRocca believes the atmosphere is even more toxic now... but that this time, the anger is evenly divided between the two major parties. As it should be. One is as bad as the other.
Here’s my question to you: Do you plan to join the political rebellion this year?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Should Hillary challenge Pres. Obama in 2012?
Clinton and Obama exchange comments during the Democratic Presidential Primary Debate in 2008. (PHOTO CREDIT: STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images)
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
It could be the greatest of rematch of all time.
Hillary Clinton and Pres. Barack Obama nearly tore the Democratic Party apart two years ago. What if they go at it again in 2012?
A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll shows Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a favorable rating of 61 percent and an unfavorable rating of 35 percent...
Clinton's numbers have improved since the 2008 primaries... and she fares better than Pres. Obama, who gets a 57 percent favorable rating; but his job approval rating is below 50 percent in most of the major polls. Obama's unfavorable rating of 41 percent has more than doubled since early last year.
There's more: Clinton's numbers also top all other Democrats and Republicans in this poll... including potential GOP presidential candidates like Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.
Clinton insists she's "absolutely not interested" in running again for president... although she has suggested that she doesn't envision serving as Secretary of State in a second Obama term.
Of course a lot can happen between now and 2012... including whatever Pres. Obama does or doesn't accomplish in the remainder of his term. If the economy recovers and the jobs come back, he could be tough to beat. But as of right now, one survey shows a majority of Americans don't think the president deserves a second term.
And when it comes to politics, it's probably wise never to count a Clinton out.
Here’s my question to you: Should Hillary Clinton challenge Pres. Obama in 2012?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Started thinking about your 2012 vote?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
Here in the Situation Room, it's never too soon to start thinking about the next big election... So here goes:
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A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll - taken before the health care vote - shows Americans are split right down the middle on whether Pres. Obama should be re-elected in 2012.
47 percent of registered voters say they would vote for him... while 47 percent say they would back an unnamed Republican.
It's worth pointing out that at the same point in Bill Clinton's first term - he was trailing an unnamed Republican by 15 points... yet he went on to win two years later.
The poll also shows a majority - 54 percent - believe that Mr. Obama will be a one-term president.
What's interesting is a lot of the same gender and generation gaps that we saw at the polls in 2008 still hold true: Pres. Obama has a significant advantage among younger voters and women... yet he loses among men and older voters. And, in what might be keeping some Democrats up at night: Independents currently favor the Republican by 11 points.
Among Democrats - more than three in four say they want the president re-nominated in 2012... Of course, there are some still holding out hope that Hillary Clinton will make another go at it... which would be something to watch.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side - no clear front-runner, with three potential candidates - Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee - all within a few points of each other at the top of the pack.
Here’s my question to you: Have you started thinking about who you will vote for for president in 2012?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Are you willing to vote against the incumbent?
(PHOTO CREDIT: GETTY IMAGES)
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
It turns out the Democrats were too clever by half.
In four vacant Senate seats - they managed to go zero for four in putting people in place who have virtually no chance of being re-elected.
It's not bad enough that the midterm elections are shaping up as a bloodbath for the Democrats - but now they'll be forced to defend what should have been safe Senate seats in some of the bluest states of the country.
Joe Biden's old seat in Delaware - Hillary Clinton's old seat in New York... they managed to put a moron into President Obama's old senate seat in Illinois... thank you, Rod Blagojevich... and one of the senate seats in Colorado could also fall to the Republicans.
Plus - they just lost Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts... and the governorship in New Jersey... and the governorship in Virginia... they're on a real roll.
Of course - voting against incumbents has a certain appeal. The government is broken, the only way to fix it is term limits. And there's no way the weasels in Congress will ever agree to do away with their own jobs. So that leaves it up to us.
Scott Brown certainly got everyone's attention. The Senate seat he won had been held by the late Edward Kennedy for 46 years... so you see, it can be done.
It is possible for us the voters to create some real change we can believe in. All we have to do is get over this stupid idea that because somebody has been there, they should always be there.
Here’s my question to you: Are you willing to vote against the incumbent in this year's midterm election?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
How effective is deficit panel that can't make Congress act until after elections?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
President Obama is backing a bill to create a bipartisan budget commission, which could force Congress to vote on doing something about the country's skyrocketing deficits - the likes of which we haven't seen since World War II.
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But here's the catch - this panel would report after the November elections and Congress would vote on its recommendations in December. Wouldn't want lawmakers to have to vote on raising taxes or cutting spending before re-election, right?
President Obama says the deficits didn't "happen overnight and won't be solved overnight." He adds the only way to solve long-term fiscal challenge is with Democrats and Republicans working together.
Haven't we heard this song before? And not even starting the process for at least ten more months guarantees nothing will happen "overnight."
This proposed panel is getting push-back from members of both parties. Most Republicans don't want an entity that would likely lead to tax increases - even though most economists agree that deficits can't be brought under control by only cutting spending.
As things stand now - officials expect the U.S. will hit the current $12.4 trillion cap on borrowing in the the next few weeks; so Democrats are trying to raise this cap by almost $2 trillion. This would allow the government to keep paying its bills through the rest of this year, and - this is key - the Democrats wouldn't have to try and raise the debt ceiling again for November's elections.
The Democrats just increased the debt ceiling by almost $300 billion last month...
Here’s my question to you: How effective is a deficit panel that can't force Congress to act until after the November elections?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
How can Democrats avoid getting noses bloodied in midterms?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
Democrats could be in for some serious bloodshed come the midterm elections - if yesterday's races in New Jersey and Virginia are any indication. Voters in both those states elected Republicans governor. The message was pretty clear: "It's the economy, stupid."
[cnn-photo-caption image=http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/04/art.va.gov.jpg caption="Republican Governor-elect Bob McDonnell of Virginia greeted the crowd at his victory party last night in Richmond. McDonnell beat out Democratic challenger Creigh Deeds."]
Exit polls showed more than 80 percent of voters in both states said they were worried about the direction of the economy in the next year; more than half said they were very worried.
Another trouble spot for Democrats - those independents who were a key to President Obama's White House victory last year broke big for the GOP yesterday. And, exit polls suggest Democrats had a hard time turning out their base - including the first-time minority voters and young people who voted for Obama last year.
Nevertheless, most voters in both Virginia and New Jersey said President Obama was not a factor in their vote. But if the administration can't do more to lessen the impact of this recession in the next year - yesterday's elections could be a sign of serious trouble in the midterms, when most governors, all of the House and a third of the Senate will be on the ballots.
Of course the White House is dismissing the New Jersey and Virginia losses as "two very local elections" that say nothing about the president's standing with the American people right now. They have to say that. President Obama campaigned for both these candidates.
Here’s my question to you: What can the Democrats do to keep from getting their noses bloodied in next year's midterm elections?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
@jackcafferty on Twitter
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