Dems down to the wire in Texas, Ohio?
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FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
It's down to the wire in Texas and Ohio, where Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama could potentially face each other for the last time.
Both candidates are spending lots of time and money in the two delegate-rich states which will vote on Tuesday, along with Vermont and Rhode Island.
At this point, the momentum seems to be all in Obama's favor. He has won the last 11 contests in a row and continues to improve his standing in the polls in these two key states as well as nationally.
In Texas, CNN's poll of polls shows Obama now up by 4, leading Clinton 48% to 44%.
In Ohio, our poll of polls shows Obama has narrowed what was once a much larger gap. He now trails Clinton by 7 points, at 47% to 40%. One poll even shows him only behind by 2 in Ohio – a statistical tie.
The stakes are huge. Hillary Clinton must win big next Tuesday, not only to keep her campaign alive and move on to Pennsylvania, but also to stop another troubling sign for her. She's beginning to lose her advantage among the superdelegates. In the last few days, at least 9 superdelegates have declared their support for Barack Obama. One survey even shows that Clinton's lead among superdelegates was more than halved in the month of February.
Here’s my question to you: With four days to go before the Texas and Ohio primaries, what will decide the outcome of the Democratic race in these two states?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Lone Star state Clinton’s last stand?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
President Clinton says if his wife doesn't win Texas in a week and a half, it's over. And in case you've forgotten, Bill Clinton knows something about campaigns and elections.
At the moment, polls show Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama practically tied in Texas.
And while she hopes to get a big share of the Latino vote, there are factors in Texas that actually might tend to favor Obama. For example, Texas has its own unique system where two-thirds of the delegates are decided on the primary results. The remaining one-third are based on the results of caucuses that take place that night. Obama has killed Clinton in every caucus state but one.
Texas is also an open primary, which means independents and Republicans can vote. We've seen this type of contest work to Obama's advantage time and time again. Think Wisconsin.
And Texas Democrats have set up a system that rewards parts of the states that have voted heavily Democratic in the past with more delegates – places like Dallas and Houston, which have lots of African-Americans, and Austin, which has lots of white liberals. Advantage Obama. On the other hand, low Latino turnout for Democrats in the past two elections means some of those districts are awarded as few as 2 delegates each.
Here’s my question to you: Bill Clinton says if his wife doesn't win Texas, her candidacy is doomed. Is he right?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Advice for Clinton’s campaign?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
Hillary Clinton got a good old fashioned beating in Wisconsin yesterday at the hands of Barack Obama.
Pick a way to lose… she lost. Popular vote, delegates, you name it. Obama is taking away Clinton's base. In Wisconsin, almost 9 out of 10 Democratic voters are white. Obama won more than 60% of the votes of white men, and split the support of white women with Clinton. He beat her by double-digits among voters whose families make less than $50,000 dollars. He beat her among voters who don't have college degrees.
It gets worse. Obama did well not only in cities like Madison – winning large numbers of upper-income liberals – he also got a lot of support in parts of the state with lower-income voters and union households.
And if you're Hillary Clinton, the worst part is this: Obama's support among working class, blue-collar voters in Wisconsin could be an indication there is more trouble ahead for Clinton in the large industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Oh, and as for independent and Republican voters in Wisconsin, Obama won both by margins of about 2-to-1.
One Democratic pollster told the Washington Post, quote: "There's no question that Senator Clinton is on the defensive. Senator Obama has proven that he can win the kinds of voters that he needs to win" in states like Texas and Ohio.
At this point, Hillary Clinton's chances of becoming the Democratic candidate for president are hovering somewhere between slim and none.
Here’s my question to you: If you were advising Hillary Clinton’s campaign, what would you tell them?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Whose endorsement would matter in Dem. race?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both want the same thing from their former rival, John Edwards: his endorsement.
Clinton made a secret visit to Edwards' North Carolina home last week to ask for his support, and Obama is also planning to meet with Edwards. With his strong following among working-class white voters, it's expected an Edwards endorsement could give either candidate an important edge in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.
But Edwards isn't the only big-name Democrat who hasn't picked sides yet. How about Al Gore?
Sources close to the former vice president say not to expect him to endorse either Clinton or Obama during the primary season. They say he's on good terms with the two candidates and talks to both of them.
But there's another reason. If it becomes necessary down the road, Gore would be in a position as an elder statesman of the Democratic party to negotiate a deal between Clinton and Obama.
As for two other top Democrats – Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – sources say neither has plans to endorse a candidate.
It's very much an open question how much endorsements matter. Even with the support of both senators, John Kerry and Edward Kennedy along with other members of the Kennedy family, Barack Obama still lost the Massachusetts primary to Hillary Clinton.
Here’s my question to you: Whose endorsement would make a difference in the Democratic presidential race?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
@jackcafferty on Twitter
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