Cafferty File

Do Mississippi and Alabama represent Newt Gingrich's last stand?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

Today's Southern primaries - in Mississippi and Alabama - might be Newt Gingrich's last stand. Or not. But they probably should be. He's not going to be our next president.

The former House Speaker has staked much of his campaign on the South. His only two victories so far were in South Carolina and his home state of Georgia. And he's hoping to deliver two more today.

He should have an advantage in the South. But the polls say he doesn't. They show him virtually tied with Romney in both Alabama and Mississippi.

A piece in The Daily Beast suggests that even if Gingrich wins today it won't matter. Patricia Murphy writes that historically Republicans who won in the South alone were doomed - candidates from Barry Goldwater to Mike Huckabee.

She describes a Southern strategy as a "recipe for disaster... not a path to the nomination."

CNN's Howard Kurtz also writing in The Daily Beast suggests that the media drumbeat for Gingrich's exit is growing louder because we want the race to go on longer. If Gingrich and Rick Santorum keep splitting the conservative vote, Romney is likely to wrap things up sooner, rather than later.

One top Republican, Senator Lindsey Graham, already says the race is "about over." Graham says that it's Romney's to lose due to his commanding delegate lead. CNN estimates that Romney has 459 delegates compared to 203 for Santorum and 118 for Gingrich.

But back to Newt. He says even if he doesn't have a "good day" today, he will stick around until the convention in Tampa. Maybe not.

If Gingrich loses in one or both Southern states today money might become harder to get; and without money, he goes nowhere.

Here’s my question to you: Do Mississippi and Alabama represent Newt Gingrich's last stand?

Tune in to the Situation Room at 4pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.

And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.