How much faith do you have in an online betting site to pick the winner in the Republican primary?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
While some of us obsess over the polls, maybe there's a better way:
In Ireland there is an online betting parlor which boasts stunning accuracy in predicting the outcome of elections.
Intrade is a website which lets users swap contracts on events and its users are amazingly good at getting election results right.
In the 2004 presidential election Intrade bettors correctly picked the winner of every single state. In 2008 - they missed only two.
And, not to discourage the gaggle of GOP wannabees this year, but according to Intrade they have no shot. None.
Intrade pegs Romney at an 80% chance of winning the nomination. The next closest candidate is Newt Gingrich at 5%.
Which means the crop of Republican hopefuls can probably go home now and dream of what might have been.
Granted some of them will now that Iowa is over - see Michele Bachmann - and especially after New Hampshire is over, where Romney is expected to win by a landslide.
But there will likely be a few who refuse to recognize reality and instead stumble forward into South Carolina and beyond, spending other people's money, banging their jaws together in a never-ending quest to avoid what in their heart of hearts they know is going to happen anyway: They're going to lose.
And according to Intrade, if their name isn't Romney, they've already lost.
So wouldn't it be better if they just went away? Yes, it would. For all of us.
We're one week into the election year and I'm already tired of it.
I remember the national root canal that was Barack Obama vs. Hillary Clinton... as the two of them lurched from one primary to the next in a vicious knife fight for delegates that I thought would never end.
In the end, the country has a clear case of political fatigue.
If you believe Intrade, we can avoid all that.
Here’s my question to you: How much faith do you have in an online betting site to pick the winner in the Republican primary?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Doug in Massachusetts:
You could ask an Aboriginal tribesman, from the deepest outback in Australia, who the Republican nominee is going to be and he will correctly say Mitt. The special interest groups have gotten so powerful they don't even try to hide it anymore. They just say: Here, here is your candidate, so go out and vote, have a good time, and don't try to rock the boat. Doesn't matter who you pick because the special interest groups own them all.
George in New Hampshire:
I have a lot of faith in it. Have you ever watched how well Vegas sets the betting lines for the NFL games? Come on Jack! Give me $50 on Mitt.
Andy in Massachusetts:
Oh, please! I'm still sweating out Punxsutawney Phil's prognosis about six more weeks of winter.
Mark in Houston:
Best part of your question was: "We're one week into the election year and I'm already tired of it". Couldn't agree more. As for having faith in a betting system, sure why not? Seems to work as well as any of the 24/7 panels of experts and their never ending dissections of polls. Why not just skip all that hot air and watch the odds out of Ireland...report of them couple of times a day and let us watch some news of value.
Douglas in Connecticut:
An interesting concept, and impressive numbers, but I think I’ll stick to the more conservative opinion of Wolf Blitzer and just wait for them to count the vote.
Cheryl in South Carolina:
Jack, While I believe Intrade is 100% correct that Romney will be the candidate, why in the world would you want to end this circus early?
@jackcafferty on Twitter
None. They are not showing who they are voting or cheering for but who they think the uninformed American voter will vote for. There is a huge difference there. For example I'm an fan of Dr. Paul's but I would "bet" Santorum is going to win.
Jack,
Not much. Although I'd put it above the Iowa Caucuses.
Jim
Reno, Nevada
I have every bit of faith in this thing it deserves, absolutely none. Hallelujah and pass the plate. This is another get rich quick scheme and will do nothing else.
As much faith as Tim Tebow will take the Bronco's to the Super Bowl.
Jack: Faith is a big word when used along with betting. I do believe the off-site can predict a winner in the primary with a 4.5% error rate.
Haha zero, I have zero faith in Republicans as well to choose their own representative. They don't even have in the candidates themselves.
More faith than I have in the GOP electorate to pick one.
If the polls are going to be as accurate as they were in Iowa, they could do it easy, just adjusting the odds according to the polls. But you could ask an Aboriginal Tribesman, from the deepest outback in Austrailia, who the Republican nominee is going to be and he will correctly say Mitt. The special interest groups have gotten so powerful they don't even try to hide it anymore. They just say here, here is your candidate, so go out and vote, have a good time, and don't try to rock the boat. Doesn't matter who you pick because the special interest groups own them all. The only real vote you have left, is not to vote at all. Doug, Pepperell, MA.
Apparently Americans will bet on anything. The other things bet on the outcome is always known in advance-we just watch to see what the bookies have decided. Hope it's not this way with an election. I
About as much faith as I have in the GOP picking a winner. None.
As much faith as I put into a Nostradamus predection. Or the world will end on Dec 21, 2012. But, I've made my reservations just in case..... I'm number 1 on the list to go...by the way Jack. Cheers!
As good a chance as the voters in Iowa.
If they're the same people who provide programming services for the voting machines then a lot of faith.
An online betting site is probably more objective than the hundreds of talking heads in the national media who pretend to know already who the nominee is and how the presidential election will play out.
As much faith as the American voter
forget about faith in betting sites.. What happened to "who can lead this country with answers to the most pressing needs of the electorate".
How much faith do you have in an online betting site to pick the winner in the Republican primary?
It seems like that's what a lot of folks are doing, now days, Jack. Lots of people can't travel to Vegas every time you turn around. So – the on-line betting has been going on for a long time. Being a "non-better" myself, I don't have much faith in it, to be perfectly honest.
But whomever it may be, The GOP'ers really need to focus on who they are going to end up with, against Obama. All the clowns that was on that stage in those debates better "endorse" somebody before they get into Florida, because just barely beating someone by just a few votes, ain't gonna cut it.
Even though I did not like McCain ( in 2008) I have a lot more respect for him, especially since I've actually seen and heard him "endorse" Romney, especially when Romney was his rival, in 2008.
Larry in Houston
About as much faith as I have in Donald Trump being elected president.
They go hand in hand.
Anything connected to the world of betting or gambling is Sleazy..............................with a capital S.
Jack, what the hell happened to you on vacation did you fall on your head? Why not ask a question like do you think Romney will be forced to reveal his taxes?
Nope!
No faith at all!
The 2012 Republican primary is chaos!
Are there 3 candidates in contention?–
or 4 !–
or 5 !–
or 6 !
Chaos–you cannot bet on chaos!
Looking over the card, I wouldn't put any money down on any of the existing Republicans for President or any on the Republicans in Congressional or Senate races either. That said, I don't trust any online betting service to predict anything. I will tell you this, the dog and pony show the Republicans are putting on for us,via Carl Rove, is only appealing to people who hate the President, because thats all they really talk about. They all say they are going to do this, going to do that, but when you ask how, they only spew incoherent jibberish or just plain nonsense. Now if the Online Betting Service was offering to take action on which candidate will spout the most idiotic,racist,hateful and the most malarky, I may be inclined to visit the site and compare notes, even possibly make a wager.
Jack, Republicans have to bet based on the hands they have been dealt in this case 4 jokers and a blank. I don't think that WATSON the IBM super computer could pick a winner.
They likely have a better track record than the Iowa GOP, just ask Presidents Huckabee and Robertson.
Online betting just tells you how people who participate in online betting view the odds. It isn't representative of the voting public, and doesn't take into account where people live, which is important when you don't elect people by nationwide popular vote.
A devout evangelical probably isn't doing online betting, so his opinion won't be factored into the odds, but he'll definitely be out there voting.
This bunch is more of a crap shoot than Off Track Betting.
If the republicans have anything to do with the betting site,forget about it.They will cook the books an fudge the numbers.
Jack, that's a terrific idea. Not only they get our votes but we get some of their money if we pick up the winner. And how about if we pick up both President and Vice President. There is money there to be made. I'll go for it.
I bet they are all losers, no matter who gets the nomination. Nothing better to do then bet on the outcome of a primary and election? Such productivity, no wonder we lag.
An interesting concept, and impressive numbers, but I think I’ll stick to the more conservative opinion of Wolf Blitzer and just wait for them to count the vote.
Jack, while I believe Intrade is 100% correct that Romney will be the candidate, why in the world would you want to end this circus early? Comedians, pundits and writers, oh my!
About as much as I have of them picking a daily double winner.
How much faith do you have in an online betting site to pick the winner in the Republican primary?
What, those moral Republicans are using an online 'betting', aka gambling site, to pick their winner of the Republican primary? LOL
It really doesn't matter which GOP candidate wins, he will lose big to Obama.
Jenna
Roseville CA
Isn't Intrade just another polling site? Only you buy and sell shares about your opinion.
Only CNN would even ask such a silly question.
Well i don't think Intrade has any more insight then anyone else when it comes to picking candidates. Common sense said that Romney was going to walk away with Iowa and New Hampshire is a sure thing barring no serious guffaws by Romney. The problem going forward is that Romney is not electable. Even if by some chance the guy won the nomination and the general election no one would follow him. He simply does not have enough political influence and clout to get anything done because no one owes him anything. He would be another lame duck president. The republicans Carter.
It's already a prime time reality show so why not throw in a little gambling too? And perhaps the candidates could throw a hundred bucks in the kitty for every time they tell a lie. Should make quite a haul.
Better than the Republican voters.
My vote and bet is on Romney and CNN, FOX News has missed with their flavors of the Month. I chose the one they don't like. Romney2012
Great Idea! Bet on yourself to loose and then throw the election!
I have more faith in Intrade than I do in the American voter. The only thing more corrupt than our election process, are the people who use that process to get elected, and that will never change, even if it ruins us. The American public is just too ill-informed, scared, and distracted too defend themselves against the "Gamers" in Congress.
About as much faith that I'll win the lottery tonight. Slim to none.
I don’t care. It no longer matters who wins any of our elections. Any candidate who wins, no matter how ideal he or she may have been to win, will eventually drink the Kool-Aid and sell us out just as Obama has. There is no part of our government that has our interests at heart. In fact just the opposite.
I have lot more faith in intrade than all the so called "political experts" yacking on the cable news channels.
I have as much faith in betting as I have in polls. Never mind the fact it seems to work in Ireland. Though, if the idea takes full root here, maybe the government can use the money collected from the obsessive gamblers to fix the national deficit.
Good grief Jack. That question should make Anderson's Rediculist.
About as much as I have in reality shows and pro wrestling. To ask a question such as this of the American public on a world wide news cast, is in the first place ludicrous, secondly pitiful and thirdly very scary. If our election process has become so trivial and degenerated to the point it apparently has, is very sad indeed. To top it off that it is asked seriously by the largest news organization in the world makes it absolutely frightening and shameful. Is it any wonder we are the laughing stock of the world? We no longer have a responsible government and matters of life, death, liberty, freedom, war, peace, religion, society and economics are reported by talk show hosts instead of journalists and reporters. The woes of the world have been turned into talk shows by TV Networks and news organizations for the sake of ratings and ad monies. Our political leaders are jokes, our newscasts are jokes and now our election process is the biggest joke of all thanks to this adolescent mentality which is able to even conceive to ask questions like this one. We will get what we deserve. Nothing more.
Thom Richer
Negaunee, MI
We need to stop the far left and far right dictating our leadership. Until the middle decides to get back into the game, there is little that will change.
I always thought of gambling as an addiction it's best to steer clear of but if it will save us from even a fraction of this clown show, what the hell, go for it! But we should all be worried if our elections start to resemble American Idol more than a serious contest over who should run the country. Know where to draw the line. The question is: do we?
ZIP. I am believe the statistician from MIT who has predicted presidential elections correct since Reagan. He predicts Obama will win. Hurrah!
Beware America, of politicians who want to control what goes on in your bedroom and would take away birth control and the right for women to choose.
So long as PayPal isn't involved, great idea!
None.
The reason we're tired of the election so soon is because these candidates have been campaigning for well over a year. We've been subjected to their wacked-out statements, to the nonsense of their "debates" (hard to call it a debate when several of the candidates–Perry, Bachmann, Cain–can't speak in complete sentences, with subjects and verbs), and even scarier beliefs (Dominionism with Bachmann, Perry; Santorum wanting to start WWIII in the Middle East by bombing Iran; Paul on the opposite end–would remove the US from all participation in the world and isolate us; Romney getting testy, telling us that "corporations ARE people" and trying to make a $10,000 bet with Perry–only shows how out-of-touch he is with ordinary, working Americans; Paul and Gingrich wanting to eliminate government services and all of them wanting to give away ever more to the richest Americans and big corporations while defunding education, public safety, health, and more.)
I'm sick of it because I'm scared and because none of the candidates are making any sense. I voted for Hilary in the primaries (2008), didn't like Obama but voted for him given the alternative (scary McCain and even scarier-crazy Palin). None of these republicans are moderates. None of them represent my concerns (jobs, economy, getting the country back to work, protecting the civil rights of ALL U.S. citizens, protecting our borders, being a good force internationally, not a bully). Instead they want to deny me the basic right to make decisions about my own body and own health, don't believe in regulations that would help workers, help the economy, protect consumers, protect kids, the environment, women. They would deny consenting adults the right to marry if they're gay, they would deny me the right to USE all/any forms of birth control, and come across as greedy, whiny, it's all about me me me I got mine I don't care about the next guy. None of them are putting the country first–their corporate masters come first, then themselves, and they don't care about anyone or anything else.
Best pat of your question was...."We're one week into the election year and I'm already tired of it". Couldn't agree more.
About having faith in a betting system....sure why not. Seems to work as well as any of the 24/7 panels of experts and their never ending dissections of polls. Why not just skip all that hot air and watch the odds out of Ireland...report of them couple of times a day and let us watch some news of value.
Will what do we have to lose? The media obviously can't predict it. They didn't think H.W. Bush would lose in 1992. They didn't think Obama could win in 2008 and they didn't think Santorum could come eight votes away from winning Iowa. Need I say more? If the media can't predict elections, what do we have to lose with websites?
About as much faith as I have in Republicans.
I have alot of faith in it. Have you ever watched how well Vegas sets the betting lines for the NFL games? Come on Jack! Give me $50 on Mitt.....
As much faith as I have in the media to pick the winner in the Republican primary.
There is a fundamental problem with asking whether one should have faith in betting, an action based largely on chance. Couldn't there be some room for logic in the political equation, especially given that there are actually 2 ideological distinctions of note between Romney and Ron Paul.
Welcome to American politics where big bucks from big corporations and their loyal lobbyist have more influence than ordinary citizens.
It still boils down to people who will take the time and make the effort to participate in "Intrade", the same as participating in polls. The average citizen isn't going to do that, although he/she WILL vote.
Considering the Republican party's recent show of indesiciveness in Iowa, I think an online betting site is just as formidible a tool for picking a winner. While we're at it, let's just draw a name from a hat. Regardless of who gets picked, the chances of defeating Obama are still slim to none.
I wouldn't take it too seriously Jack. It depends on people's ever changing opinions and whatever scandals break loose during the campaign, and trust me there will be many scandals. I believe "Intrade" is probably getting something for predicting such an unpredictable outcome. They could have said the same thing about Gingrich last month.
Plenty; but, why stop there? How about on-line voting? How about on-line legislatures so the bums can stay home and listen to their constituents, face to face? What a great idea – the internet!
Intrade isn't always right they said that Paul would finish second. You can perdict all you want but you have to see it when it happens. Would you bet the world will end in 2012? I won't but 1.1 % on Intrade would
Republicans should agree – the free market produces the best outcome. So yes, I believe in the site. Prudent gamblers are less susceptible to the media drama that has led to the riidiculous capriciousness of republican voters.
Barack Obama will destroy him, nuff said!
Jack: the online markets are indeed very accurate at political prediction, but they use up-to-date, last-minute information based on the polls. Very few of the online sites correctly chose Obama OR McCain as the nominee of their respective parties BEFORE the New Hampshire primaries; most chose Clinton and Romney. The online sites got the winner of most of the primaries right because the polls they relied on also got most of the primaries right, and these were chosen a day or two before each primary in question.
That said, Romney will probably be the nominee, if only by default, as each new challenger goes down in flames due the negative media attacks by his supporters.
I think these statements you have made sound somewhat rash and irresponsible.to tell Americans that Romney has it in the bag already and to tell other candidates to just go away is unamerican! How can Americans besure that we are getting the best candidate ifthere is only one to choose from?competition brings out the best and the worst in people.and I hate all these polls and statistics.people are going to be more apt to vote for Romney if polls have him winning.its a mind game.and I dislike Romney very much andam filled with hope that he will not be the nominee!
If you had seen the Romney/Santorum contracts go from 0 to 100% value back and forth about 7 times over a period of about 1 hour in the wee hours of the morning today, you would not put too much stock in the projedted values there right now.
I think that creating a market and examining probabilities through them is valid, and has a history of accuracy. I have alot of faith that they are relatively good predictors, in the same way the the econometrics of 538.com at predicting outcomes.
The second observation you make I find less compelling. Most of these candidates know their chances are small that still run. Winning is not the only way to impact an election and I think that most candidates goal is impacting the discussion of key issues.
I have no faith in an online betting website. To find out what nominee you want to vote for, you should research him or her. Putting all your'e eggs in one basket is just plain stupid. Sorry if you are offended by that but it is true.
I have none. Betting is based on statistics and numbers. These, however, do not chose party nominees. The people do. Statistics and numbers don't have minds that can change on the flip of a dime; and this, my friend, is how upsets happen.
In this case I hope they are wrong. If not I hope that it still will be a win-lose situation for the Republican nominee – win the nomination – lose the Presidential election. After the debacle in the Bush-Gore and Bush-Kerry elections I am afraid of the Mormon church "buying" the presidency through the electoral college.. Historically the Mormons have great difficulty in separating Church and State and I would not want a Mormon puppet in the White House.
About the same as the people...Half of the people who vote do not know or understand what the candidate stands for especially when it comes to the voters personal economic interest...if they did we would never have a republican anywhere in office...all this country cares about is if a person looks good and speaks well on TV...so why not just let a betting program choose??..it is all a gamble anyways
If blind monkeys can pick stocks with darts and make money, let them throw darts at pictures of candidates faces and choose a winner also
I prefer reading tea leaves or letting my dog pick the winner by peeing on their photo.
I bet i'm gonna change the channel.
Mr. Cafferty:
I guess the game would be "craps" ?
Maybe an online betting site to pick the winner in the Republican primary and maybe it can't. But winning the primary is only one reason people run for the presidency and people support candidates for the office. Win or lose I support Dr. Paul's run for the presidency, because that is the only way I can help move the country in a more reasonable direction. And whether Dr. Paul wins or loses, America WINS because he is forcing all the candidates to address important issues that they would prefer to ignore.
Why are we following these clowns around the country again?
Jack, gambling is just a crap shoot and this years election cycle is pure crap.
Allot more faith than mainstream news coverage. Intrade users make money from being right, CNN makes money from candidates surging and fading, close caucuses, scandals and all around drama. Please cover something else, or heaven forbid I change the channel!