Cafferty File

Will unemployment get worse before it improves?

[cnn-photo-caption image=http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/18/jobseekers.jpg caption="Will unemployment get worse before it improves?"]

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty

The man who predicted the worst recession since the Great Depression says the jobs picture is a lot worse than the numbers imply.

Economist Nouriel Roubini says real unemployment is closer to 17.5% and that job losses will likely continue until the end of 2010 - at the earliest. Roubini suggests the official unemployment rate will peak at close to 11% and remain at "a very high level for two years or more."

Roubini also points out that a lot of the lost jobs just are not coming back including those in construction, finance and manufacturing. He suggests that the government extending unemployment benefits isn't the solution; instead they need to create jobs through infrastructure projects and provide temporary tax credits to companies that hire more workers.

Roubini says the poor jobs situation along with a weak recovery could increase the risk of a "double dip recession." In fact, while most economists agree that the U.S. economy is in recovery, many of them are calling for another round of stimulus to prevent another downturn. They point to factors like retail, car and home sales, along with oil prices and the stock market as potential trouble spots.

And Pres. Obama is also warning that too much government debt could lead to a double-dip recession.

Meanwhile a new Gallup poll shows 31% of Americans name the economy as the most important problem facing this country - that's the top of the list. Another 20% cite unemployment.

SO HERE'S MY QUESTION FOR YOU: When it comes to unemployment, are things going to get worse before they get better?

Interested to know which ones made it on air?

Jerry in Jacksonville, Florida
Yes, it will. I don't see any signs that the economy is picking up. We've shipped our manufacturing jobs overseas and the economy can't survive on being a service-based economy.

Carlos
It'll get worse, clearly. And to those e-mailing you asking "How could it possibly get worse?" Well, just imagine having your $10 being able to purchase 50% less than it was able to previously. Can you say "currency crisis?"

Joe

It was rather easy to see that "free trade" would ship jobs overseas and create a jobless situation here in the U.S. I believe that is what has created the depression that we are experiencing now. From that frame of reference, I see little hope for things to get better anytime soon.

Dick in Indiana
The only reason jobs in manufacturing, construction and finance are not coming back is because we don't pass laws bringing them back. Until we get a Congress with some backbone and common sense we will continue down a path of self-destruction fueled by greed, low taxes and lack of protection of our marketplace.

John in Nevada

Jack, of course it's going to get worse before it gets better. Employers will have no incentive to start adding employees until our economic engine starts running again, and there are no bright signs of that on the horizon…. The solution is a government-assisted push to put Americans to work building a new clean energy infrastructure for America's future. Those jobs will create more jobs.

Anna in Chicago
Tax cuts for business will not bring jobs that went to China and India back. Small business can not produce the jobs that our big companies send oversees every month. Jobless recovery is only for the rich and they did not suffer in this economy. For working people, I do not see recovery.