How will you know when recession ends?
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
Some of the sharper financial minds out there think the worst recession in decades may be ending soon. Economist Nouriel Roubini says: "There is now potentially light at the end of the tunnel." He thinks the recession will end at the end of the year.
He's worth listening to. He predicted the financial crisis. But his prediction isn't all rosy. He says there's a chance the economy will start to recover - only to drop back into a recession by late 2010 or 2011 because of growing government debt - among other things.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says he's pretty sure we've seen the bottom; and that economic growth may even pick up at a faster rate than what experts are predicting. But, Greenspan warns that recovery depends a lot on the housing market - which could possibly take another downward turn.
Other positive signs include recent reports on improving home and auto sales along with GDP numbers that show the economy shrank much less in the second quarter.
President Obama has credited the economic stimulus package for helping get things back on track. He says it helped "put the brakes on recession," and that he's optimistic about the economy, although there's still "a lot more work to do."
One of the biggest areas of concern is unemployment. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner says even as the economy on the whole improves - the unemployment rate may not peak until the second half of next year.
Here’s my question to you: How will you know when the recession ends?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Gary from Scottsdale, Arizona writes:
It will be in steps: First, my youngest son will buy his first house after much searching. Second, my oldest son will buy a new car for the first time. Third, my middle son will take his family on a postponed vacation to Europe. And finally, I will take my wife back to the nearby Indian casino.
Dave writes:
For me, when I get a job. It has been a year and a half, so I can't blame it on Obama. This recession started long before he came into office.
Cody from New Jersey writes:
When we finally stop asking this question.
Jeff from Houston writes:
When things get comfortable enough for Joe Six-Pack to forget the degree to which corporate America destroyed the American dream. Probably about the time the Republicans get back into office. Maybe we’ll get the government we deserve.
Maria from Brunswick, Maryland writes:
When I don't have to worry about having enough food to feed my dogs.
Michael from Pennsylvania writes:
When I can go to the grocery store and buy the food I want to, not what I can afford. Honestly, Jack, I'd really like a good steak or piece of fish but the prices the markets are charging are so ridiculous.
Bob from Woodland Park, Colorado writes:
It's like porn, Jack. You know it when you see it.
Iris from Saugatuck, Michigan writes:
You'll know the recession is over when the "Skinny Lady" sings. You remember the Skinny Lady, don't you, Jack? She used to be the Fat Lady before she was forced to tighten her belt during the recession.
@jackcafferty on Twitter
If it ends within the next year, we'll be very fortunate. We need to get back to a mentality of every one from the top to the bottom EARNING their paycheck. 15 years of bad habbits don't change over night.
IF by the recession ending you mean a comeback in employment, that will be NEVER, Jack.
the so called "free market" trade policies of the last three decades and esp during the Bush administration have de-industrialized America. any "growth" in jobs will be either "welcome to WalMart" or "do you want fries with that order?" minimum wage with NO benefits.
Atleast one more year. The adjustment as well as a hike in employment will take longer. Difficult times will continue to be the new normal.
I can’t see that happening in my lifetime – at least what’s left of it. I just hope my grandchildren will some day know the freedom of economic independence as I once did – prior to 2000.
I'm really hoping to see some sort of indication it's getting better at the very least toward the end of this year. It's getting harder and harder to make ends meet. I myself had to yet again downgrade my insurance. It's the only way to give myself a raise at this point.
According to my latest Newsweek, it is already over. And they are technically correct. Economic indicators show positive GDP growth in July and expect that trend to continue. So, technically, since GDP is again growing, the Great Recession is over! Unfortunately, the jobless recovery is expected to continue for a year or more.
Jobless in Seattle
Jack,
As the term is defined, the recession has probably already ended. But, it will take months ... maybe a year for all of us to feel the change. This business cycle is different, though. We've never had one where the government took such a large role. I'm not sure the dishwasher cleaned all the plates.
Rick, Medina, OH
I think it's easing, but I don't think we'll ever see a bona fide economic recovery in this country until our jobs are brought back from overseas. The last administration fudged the manufacturing numbers by adding the hamburgers so many of us flip for a living to the list of what we make. Burgers cannot sustain the nation. We need textile manufacturers, furniture manufacturers, shoe manufacturers, steel producers and appliance manufacturers as well.
Very shortly but it will leave the economy weak, enormous negative balance of trade, hugh debt . A long way from the past US economy. Stanndard of living going down.
Jack: I believe the recession will end in September 2009, but unemployment will be terrible until April of 2011. It usually takes 20 to 48 months after the recession ends until employment drops below 6% nationally. The turning point for the economy better known as that feel good feeling will be December 2010.
I believe we are already entering the recovery phase........it will be slow going, but we are headed back in the right direction.
When the next Republican president is inaugurated.
Good question ! The economy is showing a glimmer of light, but it won't be over until we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. That means anyone who wants to work will have a job, prices stabilize, everyone can have a guarantee of health care the cost of energy goes down
Good question ! The economy is showing a glimmer of light, but it won't be over until we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. That means anyone who wants to work will have a job, prices stabilize, everyone can have a guarantee of health care. energy becomes more efficient , and cost go down goes down.
When my College Educated Fiance no longer has to work at a "hand to mouth" job to pay the bills, There's actually Jobs for Americans that pay 25 an hour, Car credit is fair and extended to deserving folks, Wall Streets speculative powers are finally limited, and regular Americans have a genuine chance to Pursue Fruition ..................I'm not holding my breath.
When we run out of money ... to let Obama spend !!
Jack,
Easy, when I come to work at the Department of Labor at 7:45 am and find a parking space easily. Honest! We are that crowded and busy.
The recession will end when there are enough jobs to go around for everyone who wants to work. OR until, at least, I find a job!
Delia
Katy, TX
When we see all of the now hiring signs at the fast food places since most people now are working at these jobs instead of some good paying one.
Signs that the recession is ending will come when the millions of people who lost their jobs start finding work; when the millions who lost their homes will be able to buy homes. We need to find out who is really buying all the homes?????
things may still be looking good for those with money but not those who lost their jobs and homes. I think we have a few more years before main street stops hurting!!!!
Just because the market is going slowly up doesn't mean that main street America is on the mend. trading on the market is, and mostly has been, done by Corporate American.
When you started asking questions about the recession in past tense. And there are more Christmas gifts under the tree.
Simple. When the unemployment rate decreases, the recession will be over. Until then, its simply starting to stabilize. We've about hit bottom. That doesn't mean we've recovered.
When my IRA regains all that was lost and my balance is what it was prior to the Wall street mess and not before then. It would be nice to be back on the positive after all that was lost is regained by us all. Then the recession has ended.
When banks stop raising good standing credit cards to 28% interest, "to keep your account profitable".
I'm talking to you, Chase Bank!
Well it certainly isn't when Obama says so!! The recession will be over when the jobs lost are regained. Businesses start growing and start hiring again, if Obamas policies don't force them out of the country.
When the demand for anti-depressant drugs begins to decline.
Ed
Port Aransas, TX
I will know the recession is over when Republicans and Democrats walk hand in hand through the Halls of Congress and begin legislating in the best interests of this great nation and its diverse people and not for the special interest groups. I hope that I live long enough to see our elected legislators remember that they are elected by, "We the people," and not the demon lobbyists.
When Obama's out of office.
When the job and housing market situation changes for the better.
When my wife and I are both working and actualy get pay "raises"!!
Jack,
It depends on good paying jobs to support the marketplace, and to pay taxes to sustain our government. No jobs, no economy, it is that simple.
When no new technology creating new products to employ millions of well paid workers coupled with continuing layoffs, the recession will be over, and the depression will start.
Answers may vary based on your income class. From " What recession, Rutherford, what is this talk of recession?" to "never sir, we are in permanant recession, eh tiny tim."
The Democrats are no longer spending like drunken sailors, our government is no longer taking over private industries or banking and we have politicians who truly listen to “We the People” instead of the special interests, lobbyists or are simply self serving.
For Me personally. When a job starts to exists for Me so I can feed My family. And pay My now out standing bills!
A recession ends only when people are back to 'full employement.' The end goal is not profits and gains in economic activity so much as it is the success working people have in gaining full employment. This is why a 'demand oriented' economy is more successful that a 'supply oriented' economy. Trickle-down doesn't work for the majority of citizens, that only works for Wall Street and others at the top of the U.S. income structure.
I will know when our economy reaches a sustainable level for the long term. The spiral we were on was absolutely out of control and invited all of the consequences that we are now enduring.
Jack,
Recession is part of a continum extending from an individual's personal struggle to a major Depression. It all depends on how many people are affected and in what ways they are affected. I'm sure every "expert" economist has his or her own opinion. In my humble opinion, the Recession will be "over" when unemployment is under 7%, the Dow is above 10,000, and wages will increase at least at the same rate as inflation. For an individual, a Recession ends when he or she finds steady, satisfying employment, is able to save and spend some money, and not feeling overwhelmed at how to get along paying bills, mortgage, college expenses/loans, or whatever else is on the plate.
This recessin is here to stay and all the good economic signs are smoke and mirrors. The USD will never increase in value as long as there is a federal reserve; we are going to collapse, its mathematically impossible not to. When tax rates are over 50% the gov't will see negative revenue, but democrats are so ignorant they probably will tax more thinking that will fix it. The total deficit is around 12 trillion, and since everythig in this country runs on a socializd credit system it can never be payed off, because if we pay it we will collapse.
When gas prices goes down less than $2.00.
I suppose when the government tells us it has. Those of us in the continuously sinking middle class will more than likely be in a recession for the rest of our lives. Those below us in poverty will never see an end to their recession. The government will not know or care about our problems once the UPPER
Jack
When I get a job and get off of food stamps.
I suppose when the government tells us it has. Those of us in the continuously sinking middle class will more than likely be in a recession for the rest of our lives. Those below us in poverty will never see an end to their recession. The government will not know or care about our problems once the UPPER CLASS is back in business. Best wishes to those on the way up from those of us still on the way down.
Jack
The recession will have ended when our portfolio no longer looks like Fort Polio.
Pablo
Arlington Tejas
Jack
The media will tell us when the recession has ended. They will tell us on and on and on until another politician ends the story by doing something stupid.
Jack Martin
Boynton Beach FL
When unemployment is under 5% - maybe 2011.
when obama gets all his bills through
When the media stops talking about it. Life will be too boring to mention it.
When I don't have to worry about having enough food to feed my dogs.
Brunswick,MD
I'm sure Joe Biden will let me know.
When I walk into any store, Lowe's, Home Depot, Macy's, Target, Kohl's or take your pick, and buy products that are, Made in America. Then I will know the recession is over. When there are more jobs than people can fill. It wasn't that long ago when that was the case.
A good sign will be when all my friends and family members are employed again; and if my job has enough business and is willing to rehire some of those laid-off.
When the Democrats are voted out of power in 2010 and Obama voted out of office in 2012................then we can finally restore common sense and stop this out of control spending.
Jack, I'll know it's over when home sales and values begin to increase and construction begins again.
When unemployment switches direction.
When people are back to work and my income keeps up with the cost of living! When the free giveaways stops to all who Obamahood feels deserves it the most meanwhile you and I foot the bill!
When the media tells us that the recession is over Jack. The media was correct in telling us that we were in a recession many months prior to the former administration informing us of the recession. Its the media indeed Jack!
I believe we are already seeing signs of the end. Some of the comments posted here are SO depressing!
Good grief, folks, we have been through deep recessions before! How about the Twin Recessions of '81 & '82! When Reagan was president! Do you remember? I do! There were some serious problems back then and we DID overcome and we DID return to prosperity!
I am an optimist! I believe that American intelligence and smarts, will save the day by coming up with an alternative to OIL! And then...... our Nation will rise up to FREE itself from slavery to Big Oil!
i will know when we start measuring the health of the economy by how much it expanded compared to estimates versus the current approach of "we didn't lose as much as we thought". Take away all the spin, and take aIl the rose-colored-glasses-wearing-silver-lining-searchers, and is still getting worse out there. Not as quickly as some have forecasted, but all the news is still negative.
WHEN I FINALLY GET A JOB!!! I have a beautiful diploma tucked in the corner from Georgetown, declaring me a recipient of a BA in Psychology, and the moment that is actually put to use, I will say this recession is over.
Lucy, SF, CA
When there are real jobs not mcjobs, and there is actually common sense wealth distribution. The richest 400 americans can bailout all 50 states and still be millionaires, there's something wrong with that picture.
I will know when the recession/depression ends when our government and our people stand up to Big Oil and stop allowing them to rake us over the coals. Outrageous gasoline prices are the main cause of our economic woes and this economy will never improve as long as Big Oil gets its way.
Brownwood, Texas
Frankly, Jack,... anyone could have predicted the financial crisis and recession. And there are plenty of people whose responsibility it is to tell us it will soon be over. Unfortunately, they are the same people telling us that unemployment is only 10%. They are the same people unwilling to point out that the corporatocracy exerts near-monolithic control over government and media, as seen in the health care reform debate.
Telling unpleasant truths to the electorate has rarely been a successful reelection strategy or resume-builder.
Problem with all these so called leading indicators is from yes the home and car industry which by the way have had huge sums of money poured into them in bailouts and plain ole free giveaways! Problem is the majority of homes bought were repo`s bought by first time home buyer with a credit of $8000 tax dollars and most of these people should be still renting. Cars flew off the parking lots problem is they only unloaded huge stores of inventory that HAD to be liquidated or else and the majority of these buyers were people who really cant afford a car loan right now but thanks to Obamahood they can and get $4500 for a piece of crap while the rest of us working tax payers who pay their bills and taxes never get any break, all we get is the bill!
When I stop feeling so hungry.
We will know that the depression is over when unemployment drops below 5%, When the government is running a surplus, when businesses and jobs are being shipped to America.
When unemployment is down to 4% or under.
Larry
Cincinnati, OH
How will I know when it's over....when someone other than an opinionated media and a group of "no sayers" explains that it is.
The recession ends for me on Aug 17th. That;s when I start my new job. For millions of Americans now unemployed, I’m sure a new job will be their measure of when the recession ends for them as well.
Jack,
The recession will be over when a person can graduate from high school and get a job that pays enough to raise a family. The recession will be over when two middle-class salaries can pay for a reasonable house and send the kids to college. The recession will be over when a person in their fifties or sixties can get a job that pays salary and benefits commensurate with their skills and experience.
In other words, Jack, the recession will never end, because the America that provided those job opportunities has been utterly destroyed and will never return. A jobless 'recovery' is no recovery at all.
Ted
Rockaway, NJ
When people are back to work with better jobs!
Jack,
I'll know the recession is over when unemployment numbers dip back down to the 3-4 percent level – where they were when Bush was in office. The really sad thing is, our grandchildren's children will be paying for all of this unsuccessful "stimulus" money that we have stolen from their yet-to-be-filled piggy banks. Just who do we think we are?
Arcy,
New York, NY
I believe that the recession ends when the media, the Republicans, and all the people who are always pessimistic quits spreading negative vibes...Just like a person who is ill and thinks for sure he will die or not survive, he more than likely won't...
When we lick our wounds and declaw Wall Street and irrational financial thinking.
I will know the 'recession' has ended when someone finally gets the courage to start calling it a DEPRESSION.
Or when my husband gets a job, whatever comes first.
We'll know it's over when former Pres. Bush's mess is finally cleaned up and people are back to work again. People need to remember a Republicans get us in these messes and Democrats clean them up.
It all depends on your perspective, if you are still out of a job or you are about to lose yor home, then the end of the resession looks far away. If you are working and are able to stay in your home and have some spending money, it might look a little closer to being over. Does anyone really know?
It won’t, unless congress realizes corporations shipped our jobs overseas and banks ripped us blind out of sheer greed and lax laws. That would be the same congress owned by said companies and banks. Change campaign contribution laws, then maybe ...
Jack,
The government tells us that employment is the lagging indicator. OK, if that's so, then the recession will end when the unemployment rate begins to decline by some significant amount.
Robert
When most of the talking heads say it is over! We're just like sheep! We will follow any lead!
When I have money in the bank and I am on vacation with out feeling guilty
When the republicans tell us "cash for clunkers" and national health care was their idea.
I think we need to realize that the signs will not be so clear. We need to understand that the economical dominance of the USA is over, similar to the ending of the economical world leadership of the UK once their colonial empire collapsed. For years to come we will be in big debts and it will takes years to get back in black numbers. Basically this means that we all have to learn to be more modest and humble in achieving our personal goals and the time of fast money and the American Dream is difficult to realize. We need actually to learn to safe our money first before we can buy anything and not to buy and then realize that we are not be able to afford it.
Are we in a recession? I hadn't noticed, other than the whimpering and crying on the evening news. Guess I'll know it's over when the media tells me it is. Or better yet, it'll be over when Obama and the Democrats can't find any more excuses to spend more taxpayer's money, raise everyone's tax burden, and redistribute working people's wages to "the less fortunate"!
When the unemployment rate drops to 5%. I won't hold my breathe. The way Obama is handling the economy It won't end until he is voted out of office.
Well I can tell you it won't be from listening to the White House. They skew numbers to fit whatever they want these days. Maybe I will accept it is over when home values stop declining or when my college grad daughter can get a job other than retail.
That is easy Jack, when I find a job.
I'll know the recession has ended when one of two events occurs: (1) when donkeys fly, or, (2) when President Obama finally decides that Mr. Geithner needs to be replaced. My money's on the first one.
Easy question Jack. Like every other recession, a sure sign it is over is when the economy is stable enough for the Swing-voters to vote for a Republican as President.
I'll know that the recession has ended when I can go to the gas pump and leave my first born son at home.
When we get all the financial safety mechanisms back into place and unemployment starts declining steadily, which probably won't be for another year or so.
I don't see a recovery in sight any time soon. People are still losing jobs, and we face the problem of an ever increasing national debt. I guess the economy will recover when we see pigs fly.
The potential for a depression ended the day Bush & most of the republicans left office. The recession is ebbing. But we will only have a strong recovery when we have health insurance reform passed, when our schools begin to do a better job, and when we take serious steps to reduce our dependency on foreign oil. Without those things, we'll slide quickly into a permanant recession.
When I finally find a job.
Jack like you dont when the recession will end, The recession will Jack the day that the United States says "Former President Clinton please, please, please go back to being our President". The only President that I know, admire and idolize since my time is Bill Clinton. He as President knew what he was doin, knew how to deal with budgets and with other country's and keep jobs going in the country. Jack as much as I idolize and respect President Obama I dont feel he can even try to match the skills of Bill Clinton. If they wont let him be President again our only hope for change will be if Hillary Clinton runs in 2012 as an indepent, the woman who should be President today in 2008.
Scott Stodden (Freeport,IL)
People (most) can go back to eating 3 meals a day and jobs start returning. Oh, yea, republican politicians will start dropping from apoplexy.
When Congress is stripped of pay, donations from corporations, and healthcare. Maybe that will help them be more proactive in helping real Americans who actually work for a living. It is going to take alot longer than 6 months to fix 8 years of the last Republican.
It will be over when President Obama finishes correcting all the mistakes of the Bush administration and gets this county our of Iraq and Afghanistan. When it is no longer profitable for the Republican fat-cats to ship our jobs overseas taking away all our manufacturing capabilitys and when Wall Street executives and the banks understand they can not take with one hand from the government because the economic structure can not stand for them to fail and then give huge bonuses to themselves with the other hand. When Bushes' buddies sweet tax breaks to the wealthy come to an end and they start paying their share of taxes instead of hiding them in tax havens around the world. When Republicans finally get the message that they have to help the country and not hurt it at every opportunity to get back at an African-American president who they truly hate. Give the president more time – he is right on the mark!!
When the bills get paid that the GOP made the last eight years and when they get people back to work and the all GOP in jail that made this big mess.
When unemployment country wide is @ 3%, workers are making a liveable and just wage with health care and retirement benefits, and American companies are producing good here and not in China, India, etc., and car prices are affordable for the majority not the wealthy. Rrrrrrrright!
Thom Richer
Negaunee, MI
It depends on how many people are working, not how many houses or commodities are sold. Commodities and houses need people with jobs to buy them. I'm a recruiter for a living and we are better barometers for the state of employment.than the unemployment department since people that run out of benefits because they haven't found work yet simply drop off the statistical unemployed radar. If recruiters are working, that's a good sign, if we loose our jobs, be afraid, very afraid. We'll know the recession is over when most recruiters are working steadiily again, that means there are enough jobs available that companies need what we do.
When local 73 sheet metal workers out of Chicago has full employment wright now 50% of my local are out work. Construction is dead
When the outsourcing of our jobs is stopped and Americans can again find employment. When I can actually make ends meet instead of relying on credit cards to meet monthly expenses. When the reign of special interests and lobbyists is terminated and congress actually beings to represent the people who elected them. When top executives start making no more than the presiden of the USA and no longer repa mikllions in bonuses for nonjob performance. When health care reform makes health care affordable for all legal citizens of the USA. When employers are penalized for hiring illegal aliens instead of legal citizens. Pipe dreams are wonderful aren't they?
Jack,
The economy will be roaring within a year and will continue with good times as long as Obama is the President. If we're stupid enough to eventually replace him with a conservative Republican, we'll be back in a recession within four years.
Jim
Reno, Nevada
Expecting a recession to end is to some extent a self-fulfilling prophecy. When consumers expect the economy to improve, they will grow more confident and spend more, which increases businesses' profits, which leaded to more employment which in turn increases spending and so on. Another factor is the effectiveness of stimulus spending in creating employment. Greater income tax revenues from such employment could mitigate the government debt that you mentioned.
Greenspan is wrong AGAIN! Housing will not help with the recession, it will be JOBS,JOBS,JOBS. Not min. wage jobs, but real jobs with a future. California needs to get on the business bandwagon & not tax businesses out of the state(or tax people out of the state either.)
What recession! I'm tired of hearing about a recession. I make millions selling aspirin for $10 a bottle. I'm having fun.
When I can exhale a little, even tho SS has already announced there would not be a COL increase, so my status remains UPPER POVERTY, and my thoughts continue to be with ones who are unemployed, with prospects looking grim.
Shall I even venture into the immigration issue and the illegals employed in this country, or the work visa's that are granted to countries?
I do not believe this country will recover to the status we once held and that is sad. I continue to seperate wants from needs, and hope that retirement will pay for the utilities. The cost of groceries have soared, and I budget more carefully...something one year ago I did not do.
Heaven continue to help this country. Judie/El Lago
When things get comfortable enough for Joe Six-Pack to forget the degree to which corporate America raped the American dream. Probably about the time the Republicans get back in to office. Maybe we get the government we deserve.
It appears to me that some of our politicians would like the recession to last as long as possible so they can spend more time trying to convince the public that the recession is Obama's fault.
These of course are the SAME politicians that any bailout money that doesn't go to the banks and big corporations is simply wasted and "socialistic".
The sooner we rid Congress of these foot-draggers and hucksters for big money, the better it will be for our nation.
Kerry from Florida took the words out of my mouth. It is already starting to end but if you listen to Fox and Rush and the Republicans it will never end untill they are in the white house again. Did they forget that they were the one who put us in this position.
I'll know when the recession ends when I see the unemployment rate down. So many people are in a world of hurt with no job or even a good prospect for one. The stimulus package has gained some ground, but it has fallen short in creating long lasting jobs. I pass by many closed down factories and wonder why didn't some of the money go to open new businesses in these abandoned buildings. The government threw a lot of money at a lot of projects, but I haven't heard of any abandoned factories turning the lights back on. I'm disappointed.
It will be in steps: First: My youngest son will buy his first house after much searching. Second: My oldest son will buy a new car for the first time. Third: My middle son will take his family on a postponed vacation to Europe. And finally: I will take my wife back to the nearby Indian casino.
Gary H. Boyd, Scottsdale, Arizona
For me....when I get a job. It has been a year and a half, so I can't blame it on Obama. This recession started long before he came into office.
Here's what I hear:"We're still in the quagmire left over from the previous admin so don't retire, don't look up, don't make any big plans." Thanks for the new world order, GOP.
All we have to do is listen to CNN and we'll be informed it's coming to and end. We'll also hear, and how much of a part did President Obama play in this, are Republicans right when they say the Obama administration had nothing or very little to do with it. Did we have to spend all that money or did the bail outs help? How could we say it's coming to an end when there is still high unemployment, even though we know that will be the last piece in this puzzle. And then we can go to MSNBC and hear them beat the victory drum, only to go to FOX and hear Beck and Hannity theorize how this had nothing to do with the President, how it was actually the Republicans who saved this economy. We all know how it will go down.
When H1B Visa holders are sent back to their own country and US citizens are able to get their old good-paying jobs back.
Also, when manufacturing is done in America, for America, by LEGAL Americans.
When I can get a job.
The recession will end when the depression starts.
When all the indicators "indicate" it has, then I'll know.
I'll know when I get a job. Fourteen months and counting........
When I get a job.
Jack, I'll know it's over when I can find a job and stop stressing!
When the Republicans cry "Uncle" and admit that president Obama's policies have been successful-that's when we will know for sure that the recession has ended.
When gas prices go over $4 again.
When getting a job means that you were hired and not that you enlisted.
After the New Deal in 1933 it took until 1935 for the unemployment rate to drop by 5%. It probably won't take that long now, but it gives a person a previous data as a guideline for it anyway.
We will be 100% out of a recession when I switch from Miller lite to Belgium Imports.
When President Obama starts telling us how great he did getting us out.
You will know the recession is officially over when Sean Hannity stops talking about the pork in the stimulus package and goes back to radical associations.
When my clients start paying their bills and I have money in the bank again
Jack, we'll know when the recession ends when stock market goes up highter, the unemployment rate it lower the what it was when the whole thing started and just mabye the people we elected into office reduce Government spending.
the recession will be over when people start complaining about their 'crappy job' instead of their 'no job'.
The economic recession will be obliterated when less and less people will stop getting laid off from the jobs and debts will be more affordable to pay. Less homeless people will be off the streets and so on and so forth. President Barack Obama is doing his best to rid the recession away from us American citizens. So instead of critiquing him, let's assist him how to make our country great!
It's simple Jack: When you tell me, cause everybody else has their fingers & TOES crossed!
if you are unemployed and ylooking for a job and you get a job, the recession has ended.
Jack – We'll know that the recession has ended when your question to us is..... "When do you think the recession ended?"
How will we know the recession is over?
Because *Republicans* will be claiming the credit for having ended it.
I will know when when the recesssion ends, as soon I see tell tale signs in my own neighborhood and town... and I dont see ANY yet. While I hear repeatedly that things are turning around on the news, I'm seeing just the opposite. Businesses are still closing, people are still losing their jobs here, and the malls are pretty empty.. From what I can tell, we are a LONG way from getting out of this recession. Wish I could say otherwise.
Ft Lauderdale, FL
When this useless Reserve Note is worth more than gold...Jack, I don't see that happening anytime soon. Can CNN give me a bailout?
I will know the recession is over when Wolf Blitzer tells me it's over. He always gets it right
its certainly not going to be when the government tells us that things are finally OK. i'll believe it when i see my retirement portfolio start to return to their pre-stimulus values.
When you start seeing "Help Wanted" signs at fast food restaurants.
Jack, I'll know our country is back at a level of financial health when the value of my property exceeds the amount I owe on my mortgage.
I'll know the recession is ending when I'm gainfully employed. In my 61 years, I've never seen anyrthing like this. Like a lot of folks, I always took employment for granted.
We'll know the recession is over when the we get hit with the massive inflation spike that will be caused as a result of the huge build-up in the M1 supply. No one seems to have noticed that it has been systematically building for over a year. The banks aren't spending it. They're hoarding it because they're terrified of defaults. But when unemployment starts to finally withdraw, and banks feel better about extending credit, that money supply will hit the economy like a tidal wave. We'll be tossed back to pre-1980 levels of inflation. That's how we'll know the recession is over.
You'll know the recession is over when blogs and comments all over the internet from the Right begin bragging about how the Bush administration's economic policies are finally beginning to have their effect and have taken us down a long path of prosperity.
The recession will end when I can get a cup of Joe in the morning at our local coffee store without feeling guilty and that it's not going to deplete my retirement plan.
It took us 2 decades to get into this situation and it's going to take alot longer to say it's 'over'. There are many dominos left to fall in a line that took many years to set up. Recovery will come in the form of 2 steps forward and 1 step back. There are too many still unemployed and the housing market is still in shambles. When employment numbers stop shrinking, then we can say, it's over. Let's hope sooner than later.
When you tell us Jack. You are one of the most reliable voices on cable tv.
I am curently working at a traveling circus for one third of my real wage. Guess when I think the clowns quit coming out of the little car.
The recession will be over when Boehner, McConnell and the Republicans in congress take credit for ending it, even thought they refused to vote for any of the policies of the President. After all, the recession began when Obama took office didn't it?
When the classified want ad section is larger than the obituaries.
Good luck figuring that one out. If you ask me, the economy isn't any better then it was last year. This is why: the dropping dollar. So what if the DJIA adds several hundred points in a few days, that doesn' mean anything when you take into effect the dropping value of the dollar.
It's like this. If company A makes 1 million last year to stay a float, this year they need to make 1.11 million to stay a float because the dollar dropped 11% in value. So the DJIA reflects this need by adding points.
So you Roubini thinks it's almost over? Did he miss the news about the worst tax income since the 30's? It honestly looks like this winter is gonna add some weight to the stress and it will probably bring some big hurt. Texas drought? It really looks like the setup for a Depression is on the road.
When the goverment quits taking more and more money from the people that earn it and spending it on pork projects or giving it away to people that don't deserve it.
This recession is not going to be over soon. Despite expert opinions, we are facing major changes in many of our major economic sectors like health care, automotive, and environmental businesses that are going to effect the economy maybe negatively before we see positive change. We are jumping the gun Jack with employment being so low.
This recession will not end for a very long time, because nothing has really changed. The government can only do so much. But the banks and credit card companies keep ripping off people, wages are still stagnant and too many people will be paying off debt for years. How can an economy recover with those types of handicaps?
I'm sure Obama or Tim Giethner will make sure to tell us. After all they will be telling us when to get health care, where to get health care, where to buy cars, what we pay for the cars with subsidized auto prices, how much we will have left after our taxes go through the roof to pay the price tag for porkulous, when the dollar becomes as worthless as toilet paper as China and other Nations that hold US debt panic and start to expect repayment or refuse to lend more and we simply have to resort to massive taxation and printing of money to cover the ever expanding socialized government that now runs the auto industry, the banks, all local governments and has it's site set in our medical as just the next target. It's like a game to the new white house, the game is called "WORLD DOMINATION".
Hi Jack, I'll know when the jobless rate starts to decline.The more people on the payroll spending money on durable goods will surely over time be a plus that and the recovery stimulous jobs will also be most beneficial.Those things combined and just giving it time will be proof enough for all of us.Let's not forget we're not the only country going through these tough economic times.
Well Jack I think it's pretty clear that the recession is coming to an end, if that's what Greenspan says then who are we to question Lord Alan. After all, Alan is and was one of the main architects that help design the rise and eventual fall of the market.
It's pretty tough to believe that the once chairmen of the Federal Reserve and now economic adviser to Obama did not have a hand in this latest manufactured fiasco.
If ya can't trust a multi-trillion dollar private banking consortium who can you trust?
The recession is personal if you don't have a job it doesn't end until jobs become available where you live. I suspect the GOP want's to keep the ban news comming as their focus is the next election. For conservatives the recession will last until they regain power.
The recession will end when jobs start being created instead of lost. It will end when Americans start to see real wage growth and they regain the feeling that hard work is worth something again. In other words never.
Winston-Salem, NC.
when my mortgage is modified.
Simple. The recession is over when it ends in each person's home. Until then, the recession is real on a very personal basis.
Jack , I think we have not overcome through the half of this recession. The only thing we are experiencing is a positive signal for the improvement. I think when US debt is elminated, unemployment and poverty line drops below 5%, when the housing and auto market booms, recession will officially end. I think it would take at least five years if everything goes, as planned.
Sovit
Dallas Tx
One thing is knowing, another is feeling. Unemployment is a lagging indicator and economists will probably tell us that it ended before unemployment makes a turn for the better. We will know then the recession ended. Nonetheless, for most Americans employment is what really counts. When they have a job that matches their abilities and brings back some dignity into their lives, then we'll all FEEL the recession ended.
When the Rrepublicans find another area to be critical of the Obama administration because they were wrong about how Obama addressed the economy and got us out of the recession.
The surest signs of the end of the recession would be when unemployment lines don't stretch for eight blocks and when our economy isn't so dependent upon its own citizens to buy all of its products. We focus so much on how much money Americans are spending when what's most important is how much money is being ADDED to our economy by either exported goods or foreign currency being spent within our borders.
One wonders if the recession is really over as been predicted some experts but in the overall, I think there are improvable signs in the US economy under Obama´s administration. I think if the warnings signs by the experts are heeded and with the improvements already seen, things could get better.
Jack: I have seen ups and downs in stock s and bonds for the last 40 years. All I know is to buy on the downs, and boy, oh boy, has this last 2 years been a downer. i have been buying quality stocks for 4 months. We can never know when the bottom of a recession is reached until months or years later. But we can recognize when investor sentiment is at its worst. I am a tiny , personal, investor but have made several thousand $$ in gains over the last two months. Move in- move out – that is my strategy
Ken
How will I know when the recession ends? When I get a job! I was envolved in the racing industry and it has hit hard and I am not talking spinning out I am talking about hitting the wall! Somebody throw the green flag and lets get the economy going!!
Personally, I will know the recession's over in gradual steps: First - Our oldest son will buy his very first new car. Second - Our next oldest son will get a pay raise for the first time in years. Third - Our youngest son will buy his first home and move out. And, last - I will, once again, take my wife to play BINGO at the local Indian casino.
Gary in Scottsdale, Arizona
I wouldn't accept what the pundits say, thats for sure because their pockets are full. Sure will be glad to be EMPLOYED again after 13mos of being jobless! 6M Americans unemployed and these fat-cats in Washington are on cloud 9 because the DOW is above 9000 and they are yelling Yippee the Recession is over!!!. Another example that these guys are all about Wall-Street & Corporate American only!
You’ll know the recession is over when the “Skinny Lady” sings. You remember the Skinny Lady, don’t you Jack? She used to be the Fat Lady before she was forced to tighten her belt during the recession.
Jack,
I'll feel that the recession is easing when I can go to the grocery store and buy the food I want to, not what I can afford. Honestly Jack I'd really like a good steak or piece of fish but the the prices the markets are charging are so rediculas they end up disposing of alot of it because no one will (or should I say can) pay the prices!
Michael
S.E. Pennsylvania
I'll know the economy has turned around when publihsers again give writing assignments to, and sign contracts with freelancers like me.
The recession won't be over until we pay back a good portion of the debt being heaped on future generations. Any one who wants to see the end better make reservations at the local cryogenic lab and spend the remainder of their 401K on long term parking – Gary in Homestead
Jack, Recession will end when half of the employees who lost their
jobs during the last six (6 ) months of the Republican administration are re-employed in real jobs meaning private sector jobs. But why do you have to listen to Greenspan. He was wrong during most the the times that he was the Fed Chairman. When asked what happend to his policies of deregulation ...his reply was "I'm sorry I was wrong. Jack tell your bosses in CNN that people don't want to listen to those officials who were responsible to the 100s of billion losses due to their expert advice of no regulation. Thank you.
For the recession to end: a new type of industry will need to be created: as required to employ a growing workforce.
We can not all have service jobs, for amongst other things: such is a factor of national debt.
To employ a new generation: and require a new type of infrastructure: advancement!
Without advancement... stagnancy in innovation is the main cause of this recession: so to end it: clean it up, turn it over, or replace it; and the last in that progression is the one which employs the most people: and brings the greatest benefit for reward.
America needs to start a new world economy: based on a redefined USPS.
When I dont have to worry about spending and saving my money.
Nil
Dallas
It will be easy to tell when the recession finally ends......it won't be in the news any longer. Like with most things in life, beginnings and endings are difficult to define along the spectrum of time. We are dealing with a very large system, and changes happen relatively slowly despite the force of changes placed on them. You can't stop a freight train in 100 feet!
Jack, we will know when the recession has ended once we see improvements, such as job creation, unemployment rates diminish, and health care are the rise in our states. When corporate giants such as AIG stop receiving bonuses for doing absolutely NOTHING!!!!!
Caf
Anyone that understands M1 and U2 will tell you it is impossible for us to return to prosperity any time soon. M1 is the number of US dollars in circulation backed by nothing more than faith in our way of government. U2 is the true unemployement number that counts those that have collected all of the unemployment benefits they were entitled too and still haven't found work as well as new college grads that have entered the work force and can't find work as well as the 100k wall street broker that is working part time at Wal Mart and all the other under employed people. U2 indicates that almost 1 in every 3 americans is un(der)employed.
Now think about that huge national debt. If you or I were that far in debt we would be cut off of any new borrowing as well as strongly hampered as to what we could do with any money we did have. Now look at the eight Clinton years (the best economic times in my lifetime) and think about this: we only balanced one budget during our best times and not paid off one cent of the huge debt. In fact we increased the debt. Ask yourself this "Can you pay off your debts by promising your grand child or great grand child will cover them?
This country is in deep doo-doo and no matter how many rosy scenarios you come up with it still stinks!!!!!
Oh yea, the risky trading practices have not been corrected and the same trigger could happen again and again!!!!
Jack, when will the recession be over? When my kids and grandkids can go to work and not worry about whether or not their jobs will be there tomorrow.
I will know when the recession ends when I am able to find a job similar to the one that I got laid off from last year.
The job market is so bad in my area that the chances of my resume even being seriously looked at would be like buying one lottery ticket and winning $100. The chances of my actually getting hired when there are so many people applying for so few jobs are about the same as my buying one lottery ticket and winning $1000 or more.
A few of those $1000 or more winning lottery tickets are out there and a few people will win BUT many thousands if not even millions of people will buy that lottery ticket and lose for every one person who buys that lottery ticket and wins.
I will NOT recognize the recession as being over until the job market is on a level playing field again where I can find a real job to do an honest day of work for an honest day of pay!
It will never be over, Jack. They'll just think up some new clever catch phrase that is politically correct and won't upset anyone delicate sensibilities, like "new austerity", and call it that. That way all us poor ignorant taxpayers will think the recession is over. Get used to it America, the good old days will never be back!
The recession will be over when couples who want to divorce can sell their house and move on with their lives.
"Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner says even as the economy on the whole improves — the unemployment rate may not peak until the second half of next year".
Here's another former chairmen of the N.Y. Federal Reserve. Is it just me or is Obama's whole administration made up of wall street? This recession will end exactly when it is suppose too and thats when the Fed and it's subsidiaries have bought up everything they set out to. One hell of a way to consolidate your power.
When I stop to live in fear.
When smile comes back to the faces of people I meet on the way.
In regards to this question, I feel that there should be NO recess until they meaning the government gets their act together. They should be working around the clock to get this economy back on track. I am currently employed, and I am scared that I may lose my job one day, but the lord is on my side. They need to get it together.
Dear Sir;
that is very easy to determine! Use a few of the following markers. The Big Three are on a new SUV-binge, and Detroit is more about horsepower than fuel mileage. When yet another "Enron" is about to hit the fan and the good ol' bonus is a thing to be proud of.
That is when you know.
Said Fred.
I will know the recession is over when the Republicans commit
hari-kari or leave the country. CAN HARDLY WAIT!!!!!!!!!!!
I think the economy will slowly get better but it will take the time and effort of the president. In the past couple of months things have slowly gotten better so there is some progress.. But we all have to remember Pres. Obama has been handed down with a lot of problems and i speculate that he will successfully solve or simplify most or some of them.
You'll know the recession is over when Democrats stop spending every waking moment demonizing Republicans. Oh, wait. My mistake. That will when hell freezes over.
Seriosly, have you people realized that the Republicans are powerless to do anything? You can TRY to keep blaming them for everything, but that nonsense stopped making sense on January 20.
when every wall street forecaster says it will never end
The recession will be over whenever we start seein our jobs back in our cities, when houses are not quickly foreclosed, and when the working-midlle class has enough income to put their kids through college, not having to live paycheck to paycheck and start spending money like they used to.
The recession will end when China says it will end. Right now they are busy buying up all the foreclosed homes... and they have just begun!
We won't Jack! This is either a rich mans country or apoor mans night mare. If you are not rich you better look out we got along time to go with Ob**a.....And for those that are rich welcome to the poor class.
The recession will end when we gonna be at war with Iran!I just hope where not in kind of depression that may request a 3rd world war!
When my son finally gets a job before he heads back to college, and when the retailers start hiring again and increasing store hours instead of decreasing hours.
Recession? What recession? I cashed in my 101k (the remainder of my 401k) last year and am now retired. I will make do with what I have. No more credit, no more keeping up with the Fat Dogs in the Food Chain, no more greed. Life is good when you elect to just let it all go and make the best of what you have.
Jack, a couple things to help the recovery of the economy. First, we have been through our industrial age with steel and other metals. We need to take our abundent metals, for example, our cash for clunkers, melt them down, and start selling it to other countries that need it. Secondly, we need a ground breaking invention – Something that we throught we could do never do without, and mass produce it for our country. In example, the Automobile and the Computer.
You will know that the resession ends when people aren't walking around with garbage bags weatring rags with no homes. I am 11 years old, and i WILL know when this stupid ressesion is over. 🙂
End soon! Right! The report card says it all Jack. Jobs still being lost, major companies shutting down, inflation, in debt for who knows how long, I do not see it ending anytime soon. People are scared to buy and holding onto what they got. And will for a long time. I know I am!