June 17th, 2009
05:00 PM ET

Confident economy will recover this year?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

One of the sharper financial minds out there says we're not out of the woods yet when it comes to an economic recovery. Despite what many see as glimmers of hope - economist Nouriel Roubini told a conference hosted by Reuters that the U.S. economy won't recover until the end of this year... And even then the growth will be weak and possibly short-lived.

Economist Nouriel Roubini - who predicted the global credit crisis - does not think our economy will recover any sooner than the end of the year; and even then, growth will be minimal.

Roubini is the guy who predicted the global credit crisis - so he's probably worth listening to.

He doesn't buy the idea that a rebound is imminent; and instead says there's a real chance of a so-called "double-dip" recession - where the economy expands slightly only to start contracting again, "In addition to green shoots there are also yellow weeds."

Roubini says the U.S. unemployment rate will reach 11-percent before improving. He points to the contradiction between surveys that show the economy improving; and the reality of industrial production, which is down sharply. Also, he doesn't see many options for growth considering American consumers are already tapped out.

Roubini believes the Fed will keep interest rates low for a while, but: "Inflation will be a time bomb after that." He says the central bank missed the seriousness of this crisis at the beginning, but eventually did the right thing to avoid a depression. But he says all these emergency lending programs are not sustainable.

Here’s my question to you: How confident are you the U.S. economy will recover by the end of this year?

Interested to know which ones made it on air?

Mari from Salt Lake City writes:
Yes, Jack, I am confident that the economy will begin to recover this year. We are already seeing signs: houses are selling again in our neighborhood, my husband has not had to lay off any more employees, and last time we went out to dinner and a movie, the restaurant and theatre were full.

D.A. from Lock Haven, Pennsylvania writes:
I'm not very confident. Obama should have given a larger tax cut to the lower and middle classes. They are the ones who would put the extra take-home pay right back into the economy, helping small businesses grow.

Bill writes:
I do believe the economy is recovering, but the rise in oil prices has me a little edgy. It was over $140 dollars a barrel about this time last year and if that won't spike a fuel-driven economy, what will? I believe the worst is over and as long as we pursue some of Obama’s projects, things will turn around. The regulatory policies have driven the market down in recent days but will improve the overall picture.

Stef from Minneapolis writes:
Jack, You're forgetting about all us recent college grads who can't find jobs and can't get loans because we have too much college debt! Recently I got turned down for a $2,000 car loan because I spent so much on that precious college education. That is the real reason the U.S. economy won't recover by the end of this year, and probably not for a while.

Sherri from Illinois writes:
I hope and pray that it will because I've been unemployed for 11 months now with nothing in sight. It’s awful.

Alex writes:
Jack, I think everyone is missing something crucial here: What if this isn't a recession at all? What if this is a correction? What if this is life now? Unless something is done to stabilize the dollar, regulate oil speculators, start investing some of this so-called 'stimulus money' in real infrastructure and bring real jobs back to the U.S., and fix healthcare in such a way that it benefits everyone... Then this is it. Welcome to our reality.

Filed under: Economy
soundoff (180 Responses)
  1. Mehiili, M

    I hope so. If I have to spend one more year looking for work in which case will not find any due to a bad economy. I might as well live on Welfare the rest of my life and complain about the government at your local Starbucks.

    June 17, 2009 at 12:51 pm |
  2. Larry

    I agree with Roubini, Jack.

    When everyone is back to work we'll have a recovery. I also believe it's going to even worse before it gets better.

    Our economy runs on people spending money, and right now no one is.

    Cincinnati, OH

    June 17, 2009 at 12:57 pm |
  3. Kevin in Dallas, TX

    Recover by the end of the year? Are you mad? Have we already forgotten how badly we screwed things up? I'd gladly take things not getting any worse, but I won't hold my breath.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:04 pm |
  4. John in Virginia

    I think President Obama is doing a great job and the economy will soon get back on track – the President understands the problems facing the middle class and I have every confidence that he will work tirelessly to fix the mess the Bush Administration left him to clean up.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:07 pm |
  5. Russ in PA

    I'm confident that both parties will continue to meddle in everything, and prevent any recovery. The idiots that helped create the recession are still in charge of the nut house, so good luck to economic growth.

    I'll bet more and more people are wishing they had listened to Ron Paul in the first place...

    June 17, 2009 at 1:10 pm |
  6. Donna Colorado Springs,Co

    Recovery has started, but I don't see a dramatic improvement in the remainder of this year. Next year will show much improvement, I think, as long as Obama is allowed to do what he's been doing to improve the economy and isn't derailed by some idiotic Republican uprising! I'm sure that they will do everything they can to halt any progress just so they can say"I told you the stimulus wouldn't work!"

    June 17, 2009 at 1:10 pm |
  7. Mark, Bradenton,FL

    No Jack. How with all the jobs outsourced how can it? There are no jobs and without jobs there is no money.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:11 pm |
  8. David, MS

    If you measure recovery as a return to previous levels, I have zero confidence. If recovery is a stop in the decline of lost jobs, I have a little confidence. If recovery is an acceptance of lower living standards and a reduction of basic services I think we might be able to manage. If recovery is full soup kitchens,homeless filling the streets and third world living standards I still give that a 50% chance.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:14 pm |
  9. Adam Thousand Oaks, CA

    Sounds like a smart guy to me. I don't see the economy turning around anytime soon. Maybe next year at the earliest. But even then it will all be artificial because the growth will be created with all the money we don't have, which, like Roubini said, is unsustainable. Ironically, this is exactly what the Repubs meant when they said you cannot borrow and spend your way out of a recession. Eventually the government will run out of funds and the government spending bubble will burst and we will have a new recession to worry about, with skyrocketing inflation and maybe then someone will listen to the Republicans again.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:15 pm |
  10. AndyZ Lynn, MA

    I am certain the economy will recover. My question is when all is said and done, who will bail out the federal government?

    June 17, 2009 at 1:20 pm |
  11. Steve

    No – As a small business owner in California, I see no improvement in the economy. We have high taxes that are continually on the rise and our state is controlled by Liberals who can't stop spending. We have laid off 50% off our work force and won't be hiring anytime soon.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:20 pm |
  12. dan in Tucson AZ

    Jack, until people get back to work and start the flow of money there is no chance of recovery and I don't see that happening this year. Just look at the constant reports of lay-offs and bankruptcies happening every day. Now the new thing is work without pay. Yeah that will go over big.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:25 pm |
  13. Oregon Wally Las Vegas Nevada

    No, not at all. union workers and pensions are being cut daily, i lost 1/3 of mine this year. i see nothing but dark clouds ahead. i just moved back to Portland Oregon from las Vegas both are in bad shape. iam sorry for seeming gloomy but in my 60 years ive never seen anything like whats going on now. when people loose a livable wage job and find it's a battle to find a new job for half the wage, the writing's on the wall...

    June 17, 2009 at 1:27 pm |
  14. Sandra

    No – Not in bankrupt California. It will take longer for this state to recover. Companies leave California, due to the high taxes and the businesses still here have made cut backs and it will be a long time before they do any hiring. Housing needs to recover before anything will get better.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:28 pm |
  15. Scott - San Dieg

    NO, but hopefully we have bottomed out and things won't get worse. Recovery is going to be slow and jobs lost aren't going to come pouring back in. The trillion dollars Obama flushed down the toilet had no affect on the job market, except for the creation of a few more Czars to watch over us!!!

    June 17, 2009 at 1:34 pm |
  16. Jenna

    How confident are you the U.S. economy will recover by the end of this year?

    More so with Obama in office than McCain. Especially when we get the single payer health care passed this fall.

    Roseville CA

    June 17, 2009 at 1:36 pm |
  17. Mary A from Austin TX

    I was unemployed starting March 2008 and in May 2009, I was hired as a federal employee. As I begin to put my own economic environment in order by paying off my credit cards and mortgage, I will also do my share by spending to help the economy. If everyone, who does get back to work, does their share of both, we are going to be OK. Time will tell.

    Mary A from Austin, Texas

    June 17, 2009 at 1:36 pm |
  18. Katiec Pekin, IL

    Jack, it did not take an economist to realize that the world, especially the U.S were heading for a crash financially. And, to realize we are in a world of hurt that will not end overnight.
    Noted economist give different views and forecasts.
    I would rather listen and give credit to those who see hope for our
    future. We get enough doom and gloom from the republicans who
    put us in this mess. Why don't you also give credit and perhaps a
    topic of discussion to someone who predicts an optomistic

    June 17, 2009 at 1:37 pm |
  19. Tina Tx

    I became confindent after Bush left office. It will take awhile to sweep up his mess and Obama has to get a larger broom.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:38 pm |
  20. john ... marlton, nj

    Not confident at all. What Roubini identified wasn't a surprise to most on Wall Street. What Roubini failed to identify (as is the problem with most academics) was the underlying cause and consequence. The core problem we have is a credit crisis, the process whereby people with money stop loaning it to people without money.
    Beginning eighteen months before the presidential election we watched Obama, instead of inspiring a solution to the credit crisis, beat the drum of gloom. A rhythm of despair so intense it pummeled the backbone of the American economic system, that being consumer confidence. The deterioration of consumer confidence combined with a vanishing credit market became the “nuclear option”, an option the democrats saw as an opportunity not withstanding the obvious damage that option would cause the United States if not the world… shame …shame.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:46 pm |
  21. Steve in Michigan

    Of course not.... Since when does MORE government control make ANYTHING more profitable? And... contrary to what the circus clowns in DC are thinking these days... PROFIT is what fixes the economy... in fact PROFITABILITY is the defining characteristic of a good economy.... More government... more rules... more regulation... more government intervention means LESS profit... and hurts the economy. EVERY TIME.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:47 pm |
  22. Dan from Alliance, OH

    Not very. No one seems to know what is going on and all the indicators of the past mostly heavy industry no longer exist so how do we come back? We need to start building thing here again. TVs, automobiles, steel and electronics, using our resources. That will put people to work over the long term. The government should build very modern plants and the workers trained to usethe new equipment.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:50 pm |
  23. Kyle Irvine, CA

    About as confident as I am that i will have a chance to walk on the moon. Roubini is right, the economy will pick up a little by the end of the year, but we wont see in a real solid growth for the next couple of years maybe. Right about the time President Obama is up for re-election.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:52 pm |
  24. SLM

    Not confident. There aren't even job openings at Taco Bell. It would be a good time to buy a house, car or whatever, except our sales tax is almost 9% and DMV fees have doubled. California is bankrupt and the politicians are still looking for ways to get that last dollar out of our pockets.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:55 pm |
  25. Joe CE

    The lack of confidence is gone and the damage from irresponsible financial management is subsiding. That does not mean that the econmy will be back to what it was in the 70's and prior years. The Economy will never be robust until action is taken to halt the loss of manufacting and flow of jobs to cheap labor markets, I support free trade but on fair and realistic terms, At the very least foregin ggod should meety US heath & safety standard and the cost to validate this charged to importers. Common sense dicitates that Trade Agreements recognize some differential for lack of environmental controls – this would promote a better environment. Also there should be a differential for countries which probvide no OSHA worker protections. Under fair & sensible negotiation of trade, we can compete and the people of the world would benefit. China is raking in hugh profits while doing little for the average citizen. This economic is danderous and counterproductive.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:55 pm |
  26. Mike S., New Orleans

    There are so many positive signs that the economy is improving, but the media would rather focus on the negatives. The stock market, the housing market, and many other indicators show we're on the right track for the first time in many years.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:55 pm |
  27. Conor in Chicago

    Not even remotely. This year will be the unraveling of an American dominated global economy. That's when the real fun begins.

    June 17, 2009 at 1:56 pm |
  28. Melanie, Germany

    Ask me again at Christmas. I'll tell you what I have and got at that time.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:00 pm |
  29. Jeff in Glen Carbon IL

    I hope he is right on because I fear the only other likelihood is that it is even worse than that.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:02 pm |
  30. Charlie in Belen, New Mexico

    It depends upon which part of the population you are refering to when you ask about the economy improving... Those in the upper income brackets, or those millions who have lost their jobs, their homes or their retirement saveings. For the latter, the economy will never "improve".....

    June 17, 2009 at 2:04 pm |
  31. Amber - Austin, TX

    Not if speculators keep driving up the price of oil.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:04 pm |
  32. Tony from Torrington

    As confident as I am that a house of cards I build today will be standing at the end of the year. What we need is some honesty in the media, the White House and Congress, and so far, we aren't getting it.

    The media needs to get over its love affair with the celebrity and start asking tough questions. There's too much fog blocking the promised transparency, and the Democrats have forced Republicans out of the picture in terms of participation.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:06 pm |
  33. Jim

    Working for free is called slavery and it's illegal.
    On the other hand, I guess it's not illegal when corporations demand free labor.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:08 pm |
  34. John from Alabama

    Jack: Yes, but I will not put my money in the stock market or my piggie bank, but rather a full service bank insured by the FDIC. I have some faith in the government, but Congress needs a short leash. I remember what happened in 1999, when investment banks were deregulated.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:09 pm |
  35. Bizz, Quarryville, Pennsylvania

    I think the economy has sustained such as severe wound that it will take a long time for it to heal and get back on its feet. This isn't your normal recession when you start to see a substantial recovery in one year. We have came close to an economical Armageddon and it will take a lot more time than year's end to show any recovery. I do think we are on the right track and need to be more patient.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:11 pm |
  36. J Atlanta

    I'm confident that unemployment will hover around ten percent, that fuel prices will go higher, that the stock market will bounce up and down without any real growth, that taxes will rise at city, state and federal levels, that inflation will become a big concern and that the federal debt will tick past twelve trillion stubbornly towards up to fourteen trillion. I don't see how the term "recovery" can be used under these almost certain circumstances.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:14 pm |
  37. Richard Sternagel

    If the Democrats will bone up, yes the economy will recover by the end of the year. President Obama and the Democratic leadership have asked the party of No(Republicans) to come up with an alternative plan and they responded by giving Americans the same old platitudes of less government control and less spending. This is great if we were living in the 19th century but we're living in the 21st century. So the heck with the Republicans they're outmoded any way.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:16 pm |
  38. Larry from Georgetown, Texas

    Nope, because no one is pushing to bring back the good paying manufacturing jobs that we built our entire economy on. Ross Perot said it very well in the Presidential election that if we are not the number one country in good paying jobs, we will become a second and then a thrid world country and in my opinion, he was correct. Well we are on our merry way, are you CEO's happy and proud?

    June 17, 2009 at 2:17 pm |
  39. Tony from Torrington

    When George W. Bush threatened to open up drilling off the coast and in other US areas, the price of oil dropped and the price of gas at the pumps dropped. Gas is now on the increase and is headed back up to $3.00 + a gallon and more. Why isn't the media mentioning this fact. Why is Obama getting a free pass when it comes to what WE AMERICANS have to pay to drive? The Change that we got is ALL TALK and negative results.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:19 pm |
  40. Randy from Salt Lake City

    I'm confident that the U.S. economy will NOT recover this year -or the next. In fact, this will never recover. It is bankrupt. It produces nothing except crooks and liars. Put a fork in this country, it's done.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:21 pm |
  41. Ray in Nashville

    Despite signs of recovery, there are still too many things hanging over our heads: the automakers futures, the credit crisis, home mortgage foreclosures, unemployment and a few others. I think we have stopped the slide and dampened the seriousness of the crisis, but if you remember back to the recession of 1981, it took several years to rebound.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:23 pm |
  42. Helena from Sacramento, California

    I'm not confident in the economy at all, at least in California. The only news around here is that there are more layoffs to come, increases in unemployment and violent crimes, and the government is still closing down schools. It's going to take a much longer than six months to recover from all of this!

    June 17, 2009 at 2:38 pm |
  43. Lance Schumacher

    Not at all confident. With more tax and spend coming at the economy in the form of a National Government Health Care System, coupled with the $2 Trillion in deficeit spending programs already in place, the economy is going to collapse completely and as Obama warned us, the nation will go the way of GM. Watch California closely, we are headed for bankruptcy, crushed by deficeit spending and a government unwilling to live within its budget, because the minority welfare community won't accept cuts in wefare services. The nation will follow soon after California and many of the other states collapse.
    Lance, Ridgecrest, Ca

    June 17, 2009 at 2:38 pm |
  44. odessa

    i think that it will recover but if the big banks would cough up money to small businesses, lend money to consumers, and giving out credit to consumers.we are experiencing the roughest economy since great depression.but i still believe in hope and having strong faith in God to help all americans to overcome hardships so they can maintain to live in peace.some folks are trying to make president obama a magician meaning creating jobs faster than waiting for the jobs to happen.i believe that the economy will come out of this and new jobs will start all over again.americans need to be patient so new opportunities will be coming and stop taking things for granted.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:42 pm |
  45. Gloria

    The economy will NOT recover until, possibly, sometime in late 2010. Why? Because we have lost too many jobs, spending is down, the market is dipsy, bank and financial companies are weak, housing is far far far from recovering – indeed, it seems it will be worse due to unemployment, rising interest rates and more stringent loan underwriting. Also when the teirtiary level has been affected then the recession is too deep to recover quickly. Thinking so is wishful thinking.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:43 pm |
  46. Joe from MO

    No. It took eight years to get us into this mess, why should we expect to be out of it in eleven months?

    June 17, 2009 at 2:43 pm |
  47. Robert Pergament, New York

    We got into this mess because of a misallocation of resources in housing that drove the housing bubble. Now, the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates down to keep housing prices up, even though artificially high housing prices were the cause of the recession. Until the government allows capital to be properly allocated instead of funneling unsustainable amounts towards housing, there will be no lasting recovery.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:44 pm |
  48. Rick Medina,OH


    If recovery doesn't begin by year-end, this will be one of the longest recessions ever. Recessions are always a response to excesses. The guys who invented the exotic securities and gimmicky mortgages that got us here are some really smart people. My only hope is that we create some common sense reforms that will give these people something worthwhile to do.

    Rick, Medina, OH

    June 17, 2009 at 2:45 pm |
  49. Jim from Alabama

    I wouldn't bet the farm on it but Jack, what else can the average man do but wait and hope. I do think Obama and his party are doing everything in their power to try and restart our economy and I might add, with little or no help from the Republicans. All the seem capable of doing is to criticize.

    June 17, 2009 at 2:50 pm |
  50. Marie Ontario

    It wouldn't be prudent to think the economy will recover by the end of this year although some modest improvement is likely.

    Unfortunately when both the Canadian and the United States manufacturers got into free trade with other countries like Mexico it signalled the beginning of the end for the middle class that was forged through industrial jobs.

    The time is rapidly approaching when anyone with less than a college or university degree will be relegated to being among the working poor or unemployed. The sad part of the latter statement is this will be a large segment of both country's populations.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:00 pm |
  51. Melissa

    Maybe. I think thats a positive outlook to have (and the people need some positivity right now so I don't blame them for saying it), but I'm more inclined to say that it will just level off by the end of this year. We'll see an actual improvement by the end of the first quarter next year, though it won't be a large one.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:04 pm |
  52. Jeremy


    How confident am I in an economic recovery this year? I think there is a better chance of Sarah Palin, David Letterman, Rush Limbaugh & President Obama getting together and re-recording "That's what Friends are for" than there is of an economic recovery this year or next year for that matter.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:08 pm |
  53. Daniel D. Richards

    The best estimates put economic recovery sometime in 2010. I would love to see it rebound this year, but I'm being realistic. Hopefully by next year unemployment will be done, and the economy will be making some major gains. Until then, we all have to try and do our part to make this recession end faster.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:13 pm |
  54. Jay in Texas

    I'm not confident our economy will recover this year. As long as we allow the super-rich to manipulate oil prices and drive up the cost of gasoline and everything else as a direct result of high gas prices, we will continue to spiral downward.
    Brownwood, Texas

    June 17, 2009 at 3:17 pm |
  55. Paul Martin

    Hurst, Texas

    Don't need an economist to explain what we see daily on the street.

    Government has not initiated any meaningful job creation programs to offset the damage done to the auto, housing and financial industries.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:21 pm |
  56. Patricia

    It should. Once Pres. Obama puts back in place the Glass/Speigle regulations that Chris Cox & the rest of the Republicans vacated & modernizes the banking regulations, people will know how much they will be able to trust these institutions once again.
    Palmdale, Ca.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:24 pm |
  57. Judy, Exeter, Calif,

    The word is hopeful for me. I don't think anyone really knows what will happen. There are many opinions, and president Obama has indicated we shouldn't expect too much too soon. I agree with him, in the meantime, we will continue to watch our spending, try to save more, and try to be ready for the worst.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:25 pm |
  58. D A Emert

    I'm not very confident. Obama should have given a larger tax cut to the lower and middle class. They are the ones who would put the extra take home pay right back into the economy, helping small business grow. D A Emert Lock Haven PA

    June 17, 2009 at 3:29 pm |
  59. Joe in VA

    I'm hopeful but not confident. I'd say maybe 50% confident. Roubini makes good points, especially the one about folks being tapped out and about all our borrowing fueling inflation. Also, I think the free spending days are over for a long time. Too many got burned badly living beyond their means and I think many of us learned a hard lesson.

    Chatham, VA

    June 17, 2009 at 3:31 pm |
  60. stef in minneapolis

    Jack you're forgetting about all us recent college grads who can't find jobs, and can't get loans because we have too much college debt! Recently I got turned down for a $2,000 car loan because I spent so much on that precious college education. THAT is the real reason the US economy won't recover by the end of this year, and probably not for a while. How are we supposed to spend money when most of us grads have 30 years worth of debt already?

    June 17, 2009 at 3:32 pm |
  61. Mari, Salt Lake City, Utah

    Yes, Jack, I am confident that the economy will begin to recover this year.
    We are already seeing signs. Houses are selling again in our neighborhood; my husband has not had to lay-off any more employees; last time we went out to dinner & a movie, the restaurant and theatre were full.

    The Bush Disaster has been a wake-up call for our nation. God willing people will learn that they can not live keep borrowing money; nor using their home's equity to buy toys; and Americans has learned to live within their means and learned to budget.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:35 pm |
  62. Rick Medina,OH


    Life is full of mysteries. For example, who are these morons still buying GM stock? The recession will ease and recovery will begin, when like synchronized swimmers American consumers collectively stop believing the sky is about to fall. Whether or not that will happen this year is ... well a mystery.

    Rick, Medina, OH

    June 17, 2009 at 3:36 pm |
  63. Tom Mytoocents Fort Lauderdale Florida


    The economy will not recover until we establish a strong middle class. This means returning to manufacturing and deporting illeagle criminals

    June 17, 2009 at 3:38 pm |
  64. walter collins

    The economy as we KNEW IT will never recover, however when the Obamas and staff are able to introduce the education to Wall Street to re-orientate its clientele to prepare for slower more citizens serving growth and embracing the long term greed – and is able to support that positions (as he did today (6/17) when serving notice to credit and finance agencies concerning SMALL PRINT. He will have some parallel to the FDR NEW DEAL.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:41 pm |
  65. C. Martin, Birmingham, AL

    I'm not even confident that I'll recover FROM the economy by the end of the year.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:44 pm |
  66. Michael "C" Lorton, Virginia

    Jack: Not confident that the economy will improve significantly by the end of the year---in fact I think that it may get worse---It is going to be many, many, years before we recover from the economy--and it still want be a "total recovery."

    June 17, 2009 at 3:47 pm |
  67. Gigi

    I'm not at all confident in the economy. Nor the recovery. Until we are back working and working full time. Producing are own goods and services. I see no signs of encouragement for the people except talk and that is cheap. There are more commentators than there is good common sence. I will no longer purchase foreign made goods or food products. I may have to go back to my grandparents way of life, eat less and save more. The good thing is I'm mad enough to do it. Instead of refinancing at low interest rates with a large fee. I'll put every extra dime I save on my mortgage principle only. Instead of a new car, if it breaks down, I'll take a cab, bus or walk. I'll need no gas, insurance or maintenance. Will that hurt the job market, probably, but I didn't take jobs away from the American people and send them overseas, over charge them at the pump, up interest fees etc.

    If that doesn't answer your question Jack, You just don't get it.


    June 17, 2009 at 3:50 pm |
  68. David Bebeau,Springfield Missouri

    When it comes to our do nothing congress that serves self first.We can only hope that we recover.I am hopeful that by Spring of 2011
    we'll be starting to heal.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:51 pm |
  69. rpb Viburnum Mo

    Here's the deal. Ther are no jobs to be had unless you want to cut grass or flip burgers the real jobs are gone. Untill we start making things in the US the prospects that people will be able to pay for homes or buy a car are slim and nill. I believe that things will be getting much worse before they get better if they ever get better.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:53 pm |
  70. Diane Dagenais Turbide

    All I can say is China (the domino affect) is also putting a buy China clause! And we have heard inside the U.S. a lot of complaining about U.S. companies moving to China, I guess companies better invest, build and increase the U.S. manufacturing base.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:56 pm |
  71. Agnes from Scottsdale, AZ

    Jack: The economy will improve somewhat by year end but we're probalby in this for another 18 months. Until the jobs come back, people are fearful of buying. Without the consumer in the saddle, the recovery will not grow legs. Too many people are unemployed or about to lose their jobs. The year end holiday season wil be another indicator of how confident the consusmer is. I wouldn't count on a full recovery just yet.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:57 pm |
  72. Diane, Barneveld, NY

    I'm not confident at all. I'm also not confident that it will recover next year.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:57 pm |
  73. A Jones, Galveston, TX

    While I have confidence in President Obama's intent, by the time it gets through Congress and the press, the intent seems to be getting lost. Therefore, my confidence that the economy will be better has diminished - it will take more time. The lack of health care reform is a major part of this ailing economy as well as my personal perception. I'd have to put it this way: If Congress can't fully debate the issue and come to some conclusion that actually benefits me, I think we should end the "socialized" health care our elected officials enjoy, and I mean stomp out that gravy train immediately. In addition, they should take a 25 percent salary cut in our effort to balance the budget - yes, Jack, that would make me confident.

    June 17, 2009 at 3:58 pm |
  74. Miguel E. from San Leandro, CA

    No. There just aren't enough positive signs yet other than the stock market. Layoffs are still more likely and gas prices are rising. It feels like we are awaiting the lotto to hit.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:00 pm |
  75. Charlie in NJ

    Not at all but I hope so.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:03 pm |
  76. Michael, Alexandria, VA

    Unless wages go up enough to make reset mortgage payments affordable, the economy will only get worse as these payments continue to reset.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:08 pm |
  77. Sherri--Illinois

    I hope & pray that it will because I've been unemployed for 11 mos with nothing in site. Its awful!.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:15 pm |
  78. Denny from Tacoma, WA

    I realize that our current administration is doing everything in their power to assist us with our dilemma however, I think it will be two or more years before we see any great turn-around. I say this because I don't think we have hit the bottom yet in terms of the mortgage crisis.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:17 pm |
  79. HD in Phoenix, AZ

    Jack, I'm not at all confident about a national recovery here as the wealthy criminals and conditions that made this mess have not been corrected. My concern is that we are simply existing in a small calm between two storms. Risky hedge funds are still being sold like hot cakes and consumers are continuing to be fleeced by banks and credit card companies. Even though people now have hind sight, the problems that caused this economic melt down are still alive and well.

    HD in Phoenix, AZ

    June 17, 2009 at 4:18 pm |
  80. Linda in Arizona

    I don't believe it will be significantly improved by the end of the year. Housing values are going to continue to decline. So much wealth was wiped out that it will take homeowners years to recover. Where is the recovery going to come from, the reinvigoration of our industrial base? LOL

    June 17, 2009 at 4:19 pm |
  81. Karen - Missouri

    I do believe the economy will recover, but families and individuals will probably take a new approach to how they spend. Bring back the 1950s!

    June 17, 2009 at 4:19 pm |

    Not confident at all.
    Its comming to the point in this country's life that we can no longer bail ourselves out.
    All these years we sat on our butts and did nothing about our dependency on oil from abroad.
    All these years we sat on our butts and did nothing about the increasing export of our jobs overseas.
    Every year we are becomming more and more dependant on foreign countries, or should I say at their mercy, for our welfare.
    At the rate at which we are going, its not a matter if it will happen but when, we will reach the point of no return.
    Whoever is the biggest bidder for our country will dictate our future.
    So the answer is no,no,no/.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:20 pm |
  83. Darren

    That clearly is the most optimistic possibility, not necessarily most realistic, but in America's favor we got a president who isn't swayed by partisan politics and putting the interersts of the poeple above DC's.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:21 pm |
  84. David A Whitaker

    Yes I truly believe, that this country will have some major recovery this year, however it may not be the recovery that the american citizens is use too. We as american has been spoiled, and I am not mad with that. So many things is our economic has been over priced for so long, this is the only way for the prices to come down.

    Martinsburg, WV

    June 17, 2009 at 4:21 pm |
  85. John Webster, Aldergrove BC Canada

    Not very Jack. The economy is a huge and complicated web of money, production and consumption of goods and is world wide. It will take some time for it to stop sliding downward before it can begin to recover. There are more financial surprises over the time horizon not yet factored in to our present problems that have to have their run before the change begins. We have to sit down, hold on, shut up and just enjoy the ride.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:25 pm |
  86. Ben from Boston

    8 out of 10: gdp will be going up, stock market will be at 10000 or better, housing prices will be going up, unemployment will be down to 9% and dropping, inflation will be 6% and going up - the next big problem will be inflation - more government spending than the economy can produce and the Fed printing money to finance the debt - both are already in the pipeline.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:29 pm |
  87. Terry in Virginia

    For the banks and Wall Street, happy days are here again, but for the middle class, we'll be lucky if our economy recovers by 2012.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:30 pm |
  88. EugeneWiese Midlothian,Va.

    The economy is unpredictable,the stock market is risky,and the job situation is out of control. I think it will be 2010 before we see any real progress in these areas. Gene

    June 17, 2009 at 4:32 pm |
  89. Pablo in Tejas

    If it does then The Republicans have accomplished an anatomical impossibility.

    Arlington Texas

    June 17, 2009 at 4:34 pm |
  90. Richard New Hampshire

    I would not bet a dollar on recocery this year.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:35 pm |
  91. Karl from SF, CA

    I think he's right. Since it took us eight years to get where we are, getting it to start turning around in one year would be a good thing. It took FDR a lot longer then that to make a dent in the economy of the 30's.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:36 pm |
  92. Natalie

    A ridiculous proposition given the years spent spiraling down Jack...No I think, however, that within a year's time we will begin to see some light at the end of the tunnel signaling that we are indeed going in the right direction....Now if we can just get Palin and Cheney to drop off the horizon long enough we might realize some real bipartisan efforts rather than the age-old "me red-you blue" mantra.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:42 pm |
  93. Billy in Las Vegas

    we may recover somewhat BUT with energy prices on the rise AGAIN and the way the Wall Street Weasels and Corporate Outsourcing Quislings have de-industrialized America by shippin middle class manufacturing jobs to China and Mexico the last decade, I doubt that there will be much of an improvement in workers wages.

    and the next shoe to drop will be inflation. it was the phony "oil crisis" of the 1970's that caused "stagflation" back then. I would expect a re-run unless the Federal government reins in the "Five Family's" oil crooks.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:42 pm |
  94. Jim/NC

    I predict that most of your bloggers will believe the Obama administration that the economy will get better by the end of the year. They had better wake from the nostalgia and belief in Obama and listen to the economists that know what they are talking about...including the one you cited. Mark Zandy, Moody's, predicts that unemployment could reach 14% and loss of jobs would not end until the summer of 2010. This crap of creating or saving 3.5 million jobs is bogus. This is not me talking...this is leading economists talking.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:50 pm |
  95. Anthony....Swedesboro, NJ

    Call me an Obama Pollyanna but I can't see failure when the only way is up. He's the fortunate president who inherits the throne from a bankrupt predecessor. George W. Bush set the bar so low, Obama and we have no way to go but up. We finally feel the fresh air of democracy after eight years of living in the Bat Cave with the Joker.

    June 17, 2009 at 4:53 pm |
  96. Chris

    I don't think that the economy will recover this year, but I believe things will balance out into a stable state that we can start recover from in 2010. Either way it's going to be a much longer road than a single year. Writing from Virginia Beach, Virginia.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:00 pm |
  97. Denise

    Yes, Jack. My prediction is we will see a recovery starting late July-late this. Everybody has to be patient. Rome was not built in a day you know.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:06 pm |
  98. Marion

    Some parts will recover but we have too many un-employeed for a full recovery,and untill we get government out of the private sector,the Business owners and corporations will not try to grow, for fear of government intervention.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:06 pm |
  99. Jasmine in Germany

    I'm not confident at all, Jack. I think it will take years. The good part is that some folks might shake off their instant gratification syndrome and others may learn to save energy.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:13 pm |
  100. Chandler Tedholm, Rockaway, NJ


    The economy cannot recover this year, and may not recover next year, because no one has addressed the underlying cause of the economic collapse. The millions of jobs lost in the last decade are gone forever, especially good, solid, high-paying white collar jobs. Jobs will not magically reappear when the stock market goes up.

    Until Americans who want to work can find work, the economy will remain flat on its back.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:13 pm |
  101. Rex Grossman

    I'm confident things will turn around.

    Rex Grossman

    June 17, 2009 at 5:14 pm |
  102. Miguel in San Francisco

    It's very tough out here in California right now with very few positive signs except the stock market which let us down to begin with. With gas prices set to go to new highs, what do we have to look forward to?

    June 17, 2009 at 5:14 pm |
  103. Victor B.

    To quote Wolf "let's hope the best" that's really all we can do.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:14 pm |
  104. Casey F

    I believe this man has a real "grip" on what alot of folks should be listening to. I've followed his advice for awhile now, and have no regrets with the results!

    June 17, 2009 at 5:14 pm |
  105. Jan in Missouri

    I think it will show signs of recovery, but after all, it took years to bring us this far down and we won't pop up to pre-Bush numbers for quite a while. I believe we're working in the right direction. My husband and I had our "economic downturn" in 1997; we learned to live on a lot less; we pay our bills in full each month, and we're better off now than we were then. In fact, this may be just what the nation needs to get over itself and be real.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:14 pm |
  106. Jennifer, Boulder, CO

    Not confident at all, at least not as far as a stable recovery is concerned. I think a slower, stable, long-term recovery is preferable.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:15 pm |
  107. Victor B.

    To quote Wolf “let’s hope the best” that’s really all we can do.
    Victor B.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:15 pm |
  108. Antwan

    Here's a question that really should be asked. When will the fat cat's on Wall street allow the market to bounce back? The market is dictated by Wall Street and lobbiest. So, they are the one's to ask the question about this sour economy.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:15 pm |
  109. Nick

    Most likely not. Hopefully sooner than later. I agree it will be a double dip recession. As soon as the economy starts to turn around all the mony we printed will start to flow through the system then the inflation kicks in. It's a lose-lose situation. The faster the better.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:15 pm |
  110. Erika

    As i watch the unemployment rate be reported at a record 12.4% here in Oregon last month, I am not confident at all that the economy will recover by the end of the year. There's just too much to be done in a mere five months, and if the unemployment rate is still growing it proves that we haven't quite turned the corner yet.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:15 pm |
  111. Mitch Dworkin

    The answer is that I am a sincere "Doubting Thomas" on this very important qustion. I will not believe it until I actually see it and that especially goes for the job market!

    June 17, 2009 at 5:16 pm |
  112. Victor from Chicago, IL

    Not that confident now.

    I was getting ready to buy a car before the collapse, now I can't even imagine doing that now. I can barely afford my necessity expenses now.

    I'm still hopeful, though, but I'm going to try to save as much money as possible. I'm expecting the worst.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:16 pm |
  113. Gustave Exama( Massachusetts)

    Jack, how in the world this economy will recover at the end of the year when more companies are looking at moving their operation to Mexico?

    June 17, 2009 at 5:16 pm |
  114. judith

    recovery? I am sure that this economy is going to be red hot by the end of the summer! Unemployment will be at 1% and SUV's will be back in style. Recession? What recession? We all should still be spending on stainless steel appliances and marble floors. Come on! This is America. Our economy is still strong!

    June 17, 2009 at 5:16 pm |
  115. SpinBiscuit in Anaheim California

    I'm not confident at all.With unemployment on the rise and with people unable to pay their mortages,credit card bills and the like; how can anyone expect the economy to recover when no one has moeny to spend. No one will be able to buy automobiles or houses for quite sometime. Someone in the world needs to say something that makes us think. Reality Bites Jack and it's time to stop living a fantasy

    June 17, 2009 at 5:16 pm |
  116. JIM S

    I believe the economy will be worse at the end of the year. I thought that Obama would at least show some improvement in the economy inhis first 6 months in office What happened is quite the opposite. Everything is getting worse. That is an example when a president in training gets elected. I definitely don;t have any confidence in the economy improving with Obama as president.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:17 pm |
  117. Jon

    Sorry Jack I don't think so. What you've been feeling on the coasts this last year seems to be just now taking over all angles in the midwest.


    June 17, 2009 at 5:17 pm |
  118. Bruce Gordon

    Jack – that "expert" said nothing new. Nobody has said that we have recovered, and most forecasters say that an "early recovery" would be around the end of this year. Almost everyone, including the Federal Reserve, has said that inflation is a real threat when the recovery comes, and a "double dip" has been talked about since we started the first part of the stock market (but not the employment) recovery at the end of March. Even the President expects unemployment go reach 10% before it starts to go down.

    I suggest you find other "experts" who might say something new.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:17 pm |
  119. Sevak Dasadarian

    Jack ,
    I wish i could answer yes to your question , but this is far from reality .
    and to my idea we will be more troubled with financial crisis and this will continue for another couple years unfortunately .
    Mr Obama should get off Cameras and take some serious actions or else it will be to late

    June 17, 2009 at 5:17 pm |
  120. Bill


    we have the potential to enter a depression the next two years.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:17 pm |
  121. Nancy, Tennessee

    I am confident that the numbers may look better by the end of the year, but not confident that we have really recovered. Unemployment is one of the numbers that is definitely skewed. How many people will have run out of unemployment compensation and still have no job to support the family? We don't count them anymore. The stock market will probably go up, but not to levels prior to the recession. And what about the people who lost money in stocks that no longer exist. You can't wait for the market to go back up when the company you invested in is defunct. The country as a whole took a big hit and it will take years for real recovery.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:17 pm |
  122. Gene Adams

    The economy has not yet felt the effects of the current downturn of the unemployed so I am convienced we will move into Phase II of this current crisis...Phase I was the mortage melt down...this took a long time to get to this point and will take time to unravel....way into 2010/11.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:17 pm |

    Jack i'm no Roubini. But! I did tell many to get out & stay out of the market almost 3 years ago as i did.They would not listen & have gone belly up. Americas economy will not, i repeat, will not recover. In fact America is going to become a THIRD WORLD POVERTY NATION, THIS YEAR!!

    June 17, 2009 at 5:18 pm |
  124. roger dowdle lockhart, tx

    Probably sometime next year, but after all, it took the republicans 10 years to destroy it, and they are still fighting tooth and nail to prevent recovery. Obama has been in office about 5 months, has iran, north korea, iraq, peace in the mid-east, the economy, the supreme court, and half a dozen other things to fix before he can get down to business. Give the guy a break! Once he finishes with the current messes he inherited, then he can get down to gay rights, education, health care, global warming, etc. And then in his third year.....

    June 17, 2009 at 5:18 pm |
  125. Nick

    4 years ago I basically got promised $50,000 a year for graduating with an engineering degree. Now I'm graduated and finding one paying minimum wage is a challenge. For all this talk about lack of engineers in this country, you think I'd be tripping over job offers. Even with the stimulus plan, these companies are not hiring. Detroit doesn't have a chance at this rate. We won't be back to normal for years.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:18 pm |
  126. Ken in NC

    I'm very confident the economy will recover this year. If it doesn't recover this year, I am confident it will recover next year. Well I'm confident it will recover in time for the next recession.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:19 pm |
  127. Alessandro Bartoletti

    There is almost no chance the economy will recover this year, especially with GM, Chrysler, and other large companies shedding thousands to tens of thousands of jobs. We have a better chance of hearing the Obama administration be honest about the jobs they've "created" or "saved" than we do a recovery (how can they have "saved" 150 – 300,000 jobs when the unemployment rate has jumped to 9.4%?).

    June 17, 2009 at 5:19 pm |
  128. Roman Deutsch, Butler, PA

    Well, Jack with that said, I don't like being a pessimist. I was brought that if a man put in a hard days labor he would reap the benefits. Too many jobs are being lost to have a hard day's labor. And when we did have the jobs,
    Wall Street to us for a ride. And not to mention OIL prices spiking again. But, I'll say this, President Obama has done more to help America. He's just been given a task that no other president in history has been given.
    It would take a miracle to get us out of this mess.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:19 pm |
  129. Michael McDowell, from Killeen, Texas

    The truth of the matter is the economy will continue to hit the skids, unemployment and gas prices will rise, commercial real estate will be the next to go south, manufacturing will continue to elude us, but the truly bright note is that ex-Presidents and Congressmen will continue to draw their pensions, benefit from Rolls Royce healthcare, and enjoy taxpayer funded skydiving jumps and private jet perks while the rest of us crash and burn!!

    June 17, 2009 at 5:19 pm |
  130. bill

    i do believe the economy is recovering but the rise in oil prices has me a little edgy. it was over 140 dallars a barrel about this time last year and if that won't spike a fuel driven economy what will? i believe that the worst is over and as long as we pursue some of obamas projects things will turn around. the regulaory policys have driven th market sown in recen days but will improve the overall picture.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:20 pm |
  131. Jake

    Yes. Because the man i caucused for is president. I believe that President Obama is the right leader to get us back on track. thats why i caucused and voted for him. With his leadership we can and will recover. Everyone is good at doubting him, but we are seeing the 'glimmers of hope'

    Iowa City, IOWA

    June 17, 2009 at 5:20 pm |
  132. Guddy

    I'm very confident, that the economy will we much better on the end of this year, but I think we have to be patient for a little bit longer. When we will see the improvement till next year, this Obama administration will do a good job, after the mess from the last 8 years. We will doing much better without bipartisanship. Kick the Lobbyist out of Washington, then it will work faster.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:20 pm |
  133. Willie H.

    Lets see, I've been unemployed since January. I haven't been able to find a job. My unemployment benefits run out next week. My bank account is empty. It's looking pretty grim for me so, I doubt if it does.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:20 pm |
  134. Kevin Storey

    There are no good jobs left in America, remember out sourcing, unless you like Wal Mart that much. I am glad I am retired and not in the boat todays kids are.
    Sorry to tell it like it is.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:21 pm |
  135. Ken Rogers

    The economic "mess" in the USA will never recover to that of past years. It can't recover because the country and the world is in entering a new and very different economic climate. America has lost it's ability to produce the commodities and needs of it's citizens.
    Infact, America is on the brink of becoming just another country like France, Italy, Russia, United Kingdom and Brazil....nothing special and nothing out of the ordinary. China and India will become the world leaders within the next twenty years.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:21 pm |

    Yes I think the economy will recover by the end of this year. If only the GOP would have done something durning the last eight years, we would not be in this shape, so shame on you Republicans for crying and whining about it. Obama is working his butt of and everyone, including the media are so hoping it doesn't work.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:21 pm |
  137. jz

    How confident are you the U.S. economy will recover by the end of this year?
    Forget It!
    Foreclosures and unemployment are on the rise . Wall street funny money and gas prices are increasing.

    The accounting rules for the financial institutions have been changed to hide 8 Trillion in loses that most Americans have no clue about.

    If the American people think they are being told the truth they are bigger fools than I thought and they deserve what happens to them.

    Charlotte, NC

    June 17, 2009 at 5:21 pm |
  138. Jon Auer

    this economy needs time to recover and to come back strong.
    GM has not even started in their design phase, chrystler is un-decided at this time, and we still donot have the factory base to make quality goods to sell to a world market. we are to early in this to really say it will be ok by the end of this year.

    also, Bridge and roads rojects only last from 18 to 24 months in most areas, and you can not pay for a 30 year mortage on a 20 month long job. We need more solutions to do this correctly, and we do not have th, noe do we really know the full affect of all the money bail outs just yet.

    AS for Cars...if people in the us are un-employed, it does not matter how green they are, who can afford them?.

    if anything we have only delayed the inevitable, ot just mearly softened it for a time.

    I say, not confident at all Jack; we will be the same at the end of the year, but not better.

    Jon in Nashville

    June 17, 2009 at 5:22 pm |
  139. Robert Nemanich


    Roubini has absolutely correct and has been since 2006. What you are not reporting is that above the 10.5M Americans fully unemployed, there are an additional 18M underemployed (16.5%) but there is another unreported number. Each month the US labor force grows by over 150,000 from our children graduating and immigration. Since January 2001 our job growth deficit now stands over 12.5M and that will continue to grow as the job loss also continues. In fact my calculations have it that from Jan 2001 the total job growth to date now stands at 539,000 while population has grown by 30M. As an unemployed recruiting/hiring executive I know this. One more thing, if the average per capita income is $45,000 even the current 6M job loss since December 2007 equates to 2,7T in lost income--that is how deep this is.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:22 pm |
  140. Roland-St George, UT

    I don't have a problem with remaining optimistic and looking for the silver linings in clouds, but realistically, I think we are looking at 2-3 years before we see any significant economic growth, unless we have a major world war, which I pray does not happen. (Roland/St George, UT)

    June 17, 2009 at 5:22 pm |
  141. Karl in Canada

    The fractional reserve banking system is still in place and as such is inherently inflationary, the government maybe spending money right now to ease the recessionary pressures but it is being borrowed, WITH INTEREST, from private banks, how are you going to pay it back.
    Unless America and the world move to a Government only issuence of money (including the interest on loans) there will always be inflation and debt will never be repayed. Abraham Lincoln used Greenbacks and funded the civil war using this technique. Maybe we should all take a leaf and learn from history.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:22 pm |
  142. Lou

    I think he is right. The problem is in manufacturing. No orders are coming in to our hydrolics plant in the midwest. The trickle down has been slow...people losing jobs in round after round of layoffs. We've been told we've got about 9 months left of operating capitol then we're done. Even if orders started pouring in, it will take years to rebound from what we've lost. If we don't start building stuff again in this country, we'll never dig out of this.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:22 pm |
  143. Down and out in Denver

    As long as we have these idiots willingly to work for free the economy will continue to flounder. We as Americans need to DEMAND respect. Support US CItizens help your own and this may help the economy some –

    June 17, 2009 at 5:23 pm |
  144. Luwanna, Athens Ohio


    What emergency lending? Do you mean the billions of tax payer dollars banks received from the government so they could help Americans? The same banks that are supposed to help with refinancing home loans? The same banks that are supposed to loan money to students to get their degrees?
    The reality is something I wish those of you in the media would make the President aware of: 1) in order to do anything about your home loan you have to stop paying it and lower your credit rating so the bank can either say sorry you don't qualify or yes but we have to charge a higher interest rate because you have bad credit; 2) College students, the good news is we still do loans that go directly to the college and only for the amount of cost of attendence minus any other loans, grants, scholarships... the bad news is we don't do any private loans and the loans we do still give you won't qualify for even if we have been loaning you money for the past few years.... SOOOOO if you are almost done with your degree or your re-education because you lost your job... too bad and good luck trying to find employment based on a degree you ALMOST have!!!
    How can the economy recover when we can't even finish our education or stay in our homes? No education equals no job equals no home!
    Please let the President know what banks like JP Morgan CHASE are doing Jack!

    Luwanna and family in various locations in Ohio

    June 17, 2009 at 5:23 pm |
  145. Ken

    Non-Obama yesmen financial experts say it will improve, but then hit the skids again. I believe them and not the Administration propaganda, so I'm making my plans to continu to live in the lifestyle I'm accustomed to.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:23 pm |
  146. Chad

    I believe that people will be too busy paying off debt and saving for all the tax hikes to come to be stimulating the economy this year. This will lead to higher unemployment and prolong the reccession. Glad I'm not the President.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:23 pm |
  147. Klaus V. Luehning

    The very nature of politics is to lie with arrogance and impunity, bolstered by ignorance and stupidity. The economy will not recover to please the voters of Mr. Right, nor will it descend into oblivion to please Mr. Left. After 10years of greed and mismanagement, it needs some brain work and courage in the face of obvious collapse, while not crashing to a standstill. The bloviators in congress are literally dumbfounded by the scam leveraged at their success by the greed of their corporate sponsors. Time will heal, and new rules will hamper future graft. All we need is clear thinking.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:24 pm |
  148. Roseland Hupp

    Dear Mr. Cafferty,

    I am not at all confident the economy will recover this year. It may be due to the fact that I have a Master's degree and cannot find employment, so my view of the situation is a bit skewed. I look at the current way in which the banks are punishing people for being financially responsible. The increase in home foreclosures and those who are barely hanging on to their homes. I was recenlty reading about the increase of credit card defaults. I do believe this country will recover, but what it will look like I can only imagine. My faith lately faults because of the reality I am living. I did the right thing and got an education and now I cannot even get a low paying position.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:24 pm |
  149. Cyndi from NY

    By "recovery" I assume the experts mean going back to ignoring reality.
    The economy will not improve until people have real jobs that allow them to live with dignity rather than languish in $7.00 an hour slave conditions. For too long the CEO overlords have convinced American that employees and their outrageous demands [such as health insurance and wages that keep up with inflation] are the enemy. Well the CEO's have what they wanted, they've gotten rid of us and given our jobs away to other countries, or downsized to the point where one person does the work of three so they don't have to pay us anymore. Problem is now we can't afford the houses, cars, clothes and vacations that they are so desperate to sell us. I guess they should have thought of that while they flew around on their private jets.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:24 pm |
  150. Alex

    Jack,... I think everyone is missing something crucial here. What if this isn't a recession at all? What if this is a correction? What if this is life now? I say this because unless something is done to stabilize the dollar, regulate oil speculators, start investing some of this so called 'stimulus money' in REAL infrastructure and bringing real jobs back to the United States, and fix healthcare in such a way that it benefits everyone (yea good luck with that)... Then this is it. Welcome to our reality.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:25 pm |
  151. Scott Stodden

    Jack Im sure in all American's minds even your mind that we hope we do recover by the end of the year. In my opinion I dont think we will, we're spending way to much money that we dont have with the stimulus package, the bailouts, and now healthcare. President Obama's budget over the next 10yrs the deficits are unsustainable and the numbers dont add up. I blame George W Bush first and foremost, if the Reagan era didnt die he killed it. George W Bush dug the hole we're in but President Obama I beleive is digging us deeper and deeper, and Im a Democrat Jack.

    Scott Stodden (Freeport, IL)

    June 17, 2009 at 5:25 pm |
  152. David

    If consumer spending is the backbone of the US economy, then we will not recover by the end of the year. We have all lost a lot of equity in our homes (our personal ATM's), and our 401K's are now 101K's. Pay raises are gone, replaced by furloughs. All in all, these are long term problems. Hopefully the worst will be over by the end of the year, but recovered? No way...

    June 17, 2009 at 5:25 pm |
  153. Arnold

    The economy certainly won't recover very fast if everyone is doom and gloom about it. If a healthy man believes he is sick, he actually becomes sick. Give a dying man hope of getting better and his health improves! Lie to us if need be, but people need to believe this mess is going to get better or the economy will only continue to weaken.

    Arnold from Los Angeles, CA

    June 17, 2009 at 5:25 pm |
  154. Stephanie from Miami, FL

    I am skeptical of a full recovery by the end of this year. The market indicators are not stable and the lagging effect could take longer than six months. To illustrate this, a couple of hours ago, the School Board of Miami-Dade took steps to reduce employees' salary in anticipation of a prolonged recession and diminished funds for education.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:26 pm |
  155. Andrea in Raleigh, NC


    The men who founded this country warned us of the dangers of having a private central bank. The Federal Reserve, albeit the name, is not a federal entity–a handful of wealthy families control how much money is in circulation, how much it is worth, and the interest rate attached with each dollar spent. A system like that couldn't possibly be without a conflict of interest; those who control the system benefit the most! All of these problems, however severe they may be, only stem from our basic economic philosophy: the dollar is worth something. The worth of the dollar is intangible to me; it's just a piece of paper. It's something I like to call imaginary value–we only allow it because we have to play the game.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:26 pm |
  156. Peter from Illinois

    Maybe...The economy seems like the problems are starting to fall apart, I believe that after the summer months towards September or October we'll have a better idea on when the economy will recover...

    June 17, 2009 at 5:27 pm |
  157. Ryan

    I am not confident about this. Too much deficit growth has many people worried. Others don't have anything left to spend.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:29 pm |
  158. Arman

    There is no chance that the economy will recover by the end of this year. The government needs to cut spending, cut taxes, do away with the FED and the IRS and it doesn't look like any of that is going to happen. The only person that seems to care about this economy is overlooked. It's a shame that people like Ron Paul are virtually ignored and payed little attention. This country has been headed toward fascism for years and it is now becoming more evident. It may seem as though the corporations are struggling in this so called "crisis" when in actuality they are only cementing their futures.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:29 pm |
  159. hank, montreal

    No Jack, there will be no recovery for quite some time; but one thing you can take to the bank, is that there will be no recession on Wall Street or Washington ever! The Geithner and Summers team has made sure of that. Those guys have their meals with their Wall st. buddies and sleep with their Washington benefactors.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:30 pm |
  160. Annie, Atlanta

    No, not while we’re still hemorrhaging jobs. Until we figure out how to get them back or create new ones, we’re in trouble. And thinking outside the box hasn’t been a strength of ours for some time.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:30 pm |
  161. Ralph Spyer chicago Il

    No way no how. we shipped it all to China,we lost autos, cloths,toys,T.V.s,bicycles,shoes,and textiles.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:30 pm |
  162. Paul Albert

    I am not confident that the economy will recover any time soon this year. I say this because the housing, oil, financial services, and auto industries which are inter-woven into the industrial fibre of America are still substantially weak. Petrol and its bypass impact every faucet of our economy. Unfortunately this very invaluable global resource is controlled by an insiduous cartel, that arbitrarily raises and reduces prices as it sees fit, and sometimes for vindictive and pathological reasons. Only an alternative fuel solution will save America from this impasse.

    Paul Albert
    North Carolina

    June 17, 2009 at 5:31 pm |
  163. boxer girl in iowa

    I don't for one minute believe that our economy will recovery any time soon, and yes, the people are tapped out. The sad thing about it is when it does recover they will be right back to their old tricks (wallstreet) They can't live with only one jet but it's ok for everyone else to have to live in a box.(refrigerator boxes are the biggest)

    June 17, 2009 at 5:31 pm |
  164. Brian

    Yes Jack,

    The economy has already recovered. It was the over-heated, hyper-world-destroying- ecomnomy of last year, which we have recovered from. China's current policy of artificialy inlfating demand for raw materials is insane.

    Now is the time to realize the forgoton America Dream of a simple life; liberty; & the pursuit of a week-end, spent walking to the local swimming hole, with a home-made pick-a-nic lunch.

    Would anybody really like to turn the clock back to a time of temporary insanity?


    June 17, 2009 at 5:31 pm |
  165. lkr

    I want to believe that things will be better, but in reality, i think it will be another full year or more. People are wanting everything to move fast, but that is unrealistic. I still trust the President and his ideas, so will continue to believe.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:35 pm |
  166. Jerry

    Recovery? It took years for the economy to get in the shape it is currently in, and I don't expect a recovery for several years to come. I expect things to get worse, much worse. It wouldn't suprise me for this country to go into another depression.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:35 pm |
  167. Teri Slagle

    Hi Jack! No, not confident. All of our jobs have been either outsourced or the industry dismantled. They took our good paying jobs away and replaced them with minimum wage jobs (if one could be found), and the housing problems came afterward. The situation may continue to get worse until we have good paying jobs in this country again. Once again after 3 months I'm on unemployment, and I'm in the medical field......

    June 17, 2009 at 5:36 pm |
  168. William Courtland

    If you do not build a new type of transportations system intregrated with the road nextwork. If The United States does not invest in a new type of Postal Route...

    This recession will be permanent. Unless you can find half a million acres of new land to grow crops... or require hundreds of new skyscrapers when most are emptying... Unless you can create jobs in a market which is shrinking naturally due to mechanization and outsourcing: how can you expect to employ an ever growing population without an ever innovating and evolving work requirement.

    The Nation needs the boom of a new rail installation age: a new age of laying new roads to outperform the old ashphalt and pavement.

    The upkeep work is not enough: the nation needs to expand infrastructure: give reason for new times, new economic engines, and new employment; New needs creates new jobs!

    You could always ban power tools: that would employ way more people...

    June 17, 2009 at 5:39 pm |
  169. Jeff in Sims, NC

    Hi Jack,
    I thought I saw a light at the end of the tunnel but it was an oil tanker barreling through. In general the recovery was well on the way but with interest rates rising and fuel costs sky rocketing the recovery is over. BIG OIL AND THE BANKS facilitated this crash and now they're sucking up whatever money they possibly can again. NOW it's going to get really really bad out there.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:39 pm |
  170. Karl in Canada

    Andrea in Raleigh knows what i am referring to... Those of you who think the housing prices bubble caused the problem are wrong, the hedge funds and investment houses who BET on wether the house prices would continue to rise, divided and sold your mortgages caused it and the reason all this money is being invested in the economy (banks actually) is because they are all broke and the world economy would collapse if we didn't. Some serious changes need to be made to the finacial systems of the world before we all move out of recession. so i don't see us coming out of recession until 2010 at least.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:40 pm |
  171. Paulette,Dallas,PA

    I'm not confident at all. A true recovery will not be in effect until jobs are created in private industry and the unemployed go back to work.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:42 pm |
  172. steve in florida

    I think the economy will improve in a lot of ways, but I think there's a transformation that has to take place along with the recovery. It won't do any good to go back to the free-for-all, no holds barred atmosphere of the Bush Administration. The days of "just go shopping" are over and there's no refunds on the Iraq war. The economy has to come back in a new form. There are a lot of rocks in the road with terrified, snarling, grasping little CEO's and Wall Street snakes hiding underneath that need to be turned over and its occupants evicted or at least put on a leash for a true recovery to occur.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:43 pm |
  173. ed

    Spending on the Iraq war and other war expenditures was "Off the
    Book" spending . No one seems to mention it as part of the national debt. Why not do the same with the economic recovery. This magic money just
    doesn't get counted. If we take the same approach with the economic recovery we could really cut cost. It is like getting something for nothing.
    And don't let it leak out. Everyone will want to do it.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:45 pm |
  174. Marsha

    No, I do not think the economy will recover in 2009. The folks like me who lost their jobs during the first quarter are still on severance and therefore will not be applying for unemployment until later in the year. I feel there will be another surge downward once this large number begins to apply for unemployment.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:52 pm |
  175. Brendan in Phoenix

    Ever heard of the phrase, "it's all in your head?" I think once Americans begin to realize that they can spend a little more without the sky falling on top of them we will see the economy begin to recover. By the end of the year though? I think even Mr. Roubini is being a little too optimistic.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:55 pm |
  176. K. Bush

    As long as O'bama and the Democrats are in charge, we can confident of nothing except that the government is going to get bigger and our tax dollars are going to be thrown at projects and programs that are wasteful.

    June 17, 2009 at 5:56 pm |
  177. Alice Hill

    I think the economy will recover, we have hit rock botton and there is no place to go but UP!. I took my $250.00 and spent it purchasing items I needed and had not brought lately, thanks!

    June 17, 2009 at 5:57 pm |
  178. michael linville

    main street needs a stimulus package. Until that happens, its going to be a slow recovery that will take three or four years. By then, the BRIC will be leading the world out of the recession and american will find itself on the decline. Politicians have seen this coming for decades, when will they start working for the people again and making us competitive. We need to start making things in america again! Thats the way to stimulate the country back into the world market

    June 17, 2009 at 5:58 pm |
  179. Mike, Syracuse, NY

    Yes jack it will start to recover. Which begs the question why we are spending the massive stimulus bill, since only 15% of the money is budgetted for this year. If we can recover on 15% of the money, why spend the rest?

    June 17, 2009 at 5:59 pm |
  180. Montana Mike

    I am a realist, cutting school teachers pay, and paying sports athletes 100 million, is a current sign of the insanity of the times. The system is broke and needs rapid change.

    This economic crisis, and the idea Government is a cure all now being spouted, and that this country will borrow/lend its way out of debt, based on future growth, is a proven failed theory (California just went through this with the Terminator versus Grey Davis)

    Government is not a cure all. People have to take responsibility for their own lives/decisions. People have to be educated and offered such, so they understand their decision – Amerika is failing and pumping up a failed system will lead to the "2nd Recession" – this is inevitable

    June 17, 2009 at 6:00 pm |