June 20th, 2008
04:53 PM ET

What does Obama’s lead in swing states mean?


CNN's Electoral College Map (PHOTO CREDIT: CNN)

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

Just two weeks after the end of the Democratic primary season, Barack Obama has jumped ahead of John McCain in three key swing states – Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Obama was defeated in the primaries by Hillary Clinton in all three of these states. Clinton made the point at the time that she was the only candidate who could defeat John McCain in November because she was winning the so-called battleground states.

The fact that support for Obama has increased so quickly in these states could be taken as a sign the Democratic Party is coming together behind its nominee despite the long and bitter primary fight between Obama and Clinton. Obama has never campaigned in Florida because its primary was disallowed by the Democratic National Committee. Clinton easily won the white, working class voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania considered critical for a Democratic victory in November.

The election is still almost five months away, and obviously anything can happen. Polls done this far ahead are often not indicative of what will happen on Election Day. Historically the public doesn't begin to really focus on the election until after the party conventions are over. But the record turnouts during the primaries indicate there is an unusual amount of interest in this election.

And there's no doubt the states in question are crucial. Florida clinched the presidency for George Bush in 2000; Ohio did the same thing in 2004.

Here’s my question to you: What does it mean that Barack Obama is already leading John McCain in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida?

Interested to know which ones made it on air?

Gary from El Centro, California writes:
It's too early to put a lot of stock in the polls, but it does seem to shoot down Hillary's argument that Obama is unelectable. I do believe that Obama has a chance not only to win, but win in a landslide. These early polls suggest that McCain is surprisingly weak in areas he should be strong in, and Obama is surprisingly strong in areas where he was perceived to be weak.

Venia from Philadelphia writes:
It means this: with over 370,000 jobs lost since January, over 1 million homes in foreclosure, over 4,000 troops dead from this senseless war, the world hating us, gas at $4.10 and rising daily, we cannot afford John McCain and people are finally waking to that fact. I will never forget the British newspaper the day after the 2004 election when we re-nominated Bush and the headlines read "How can 54 million people be so dumb?" Well it looks like they got educated.

Scott from Pennsylvania writes:
Doesn’t mean a thing, there is still a lot of time left. We haven’t even gotten to the October surprise yet.

Ben from Iowa writes:
It means that the people of those states voted for Hillary Clinton and NOT against Barack Obama like the talking heads have been babbling about. Now they are voting FOR Obama. Surprise, surprise - the talking heads inaccurately interpreted the common man's actions again.

Joanne writes:
Obama's lead in these three states means nothing. I'm a Democrat from Pennsylvania, so don't let the polls fool you. I'm more convinced than ever that Obama is not the person to lead this country in these difficult times.

Harry from Kentucky writes:
You and Wolf have something to talk about for another week!

Karen writes:
It means that Obama will probably win Pennsylvania and Ohio, and the Supreme Court will give Florida to McCain.

Filed under: Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (165 Responses)
  1. John in Atlanta

    Jack, it means that the traditional electorate is, get this, "CHANGING." I don't feel that America is in for the standard scare em into voting for us approach by the GOP. Let's face it, after 7 years of the GOP stinking up the place, Americans have realized that this is one thing that can't happen again. Plus, it helps that Sen. McCain has no platform, new ideas, or a clue. Lastly, we just love to say Barack, ain't that a cool name?

    June 20, 2008 at 2:01 pm |
  2. Mark - Asheville, NC

    It means that the Bradley Effect does not show up in the "polls": when these voters get into the booths they will vote the way they really want to, regardless if what they say to pollsters. In the end Obama will lose all three states.

    Also, this is before the attack ads take their toll. Remember, Dukakis was 20 points ahead of George HW Bush in August, then went on to lose 41 states!

    June 20, 2008 at 2:03 pm |
  3. Rosalynd Florida

    That this is the begining of the end for McCain's hopes for sitting in the Oval office. McCain is no Hillary Clinton so he should not have assumed the swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida would move in his direction. McCain and the Republicans must face the harsh reality of their failures over the last 7 years. Hit the road Mac don't come back no more no more.....

    June 20, 2008 at 2:04 pm |
  4. Conor in Chicago

    It means that today is today and that tomorrow will be a different day. Plus, what poll said this? Was it taken at a church or a starbucks? Polls hardly show anything.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:05 pm |
  5. Scott, PA

    Doesnt mean a thing, there is still a lot of time left. We havent even gotten to the October surprise yet.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:07 pm |
  6. JD

    It means two things; first that Obama will be under a lot of scrutiny, and every bump in the road will be treated like an "Achilles heel". Second, the media will have to work very hard to make it sound like the race is competitive between now and November.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:07 pm |
  7. Stacy from Farifax, Virginia

    That McCain better hope for a ton of hanging chads on election day.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:08 pm |
  8. David, Orlando, FL

    All it means is that we still have 5 or 6 months of media induced razor thin margins to keep us potatoes on the edge of our couches. Then, if it goes against the incumbent, there will be recounts, challenges, and ultimately a Supreme Court decision appointing McSame and installing him in the WH.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:09 pm |
  9. Chryssa

    Not much at this point. We still have a lot of work to do – so don't relax yet, Obama people.

    Boise, ID

    June 20, 2008 at 2:09 pm |
  10. Jed in Redding, CA

    It means, firstly, that all is well and good for America's future. Secondly, it means all those pro Hillary pundits were dead wrong when they said Obama can't win in the states Hillary won. Florida may yet be out of reach, especially if McCain picks Charlie Crist as his VP. But with the political atmosphere the way it is I'll be shocked if Obama doesn't carry Ohio and Pennsylvania.

    And that, by the way, is without Hillary on the ticket. He doesn't need her and he doesn't need to pay of her debt. She racked it up, let her figure out a way to pay it off. It's not his responsibility.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:10 pm |
  11. sandy in Ohio

    It means that people are fed up with the past seven years and want a change. The Republicans should have known this was coming, and I believe that no amount of pandering to people's fears nor their promises of cheaper oil can save them. People are a lot smarter than the Republicans give them credit for.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:10 pm |
  12. David

    Obamania is spreading

    June 20, 2008 at 2:11 pm |
  13. Jenny


    Maybe it is time for McCain to actually have to work in this campaign. I hear the ighty O train coming down the tracks. And it ain't Oprah!!

    Jenny Rome Ga

    June 20, 2008 at 2:12 pm |
  14. John in San Diego

    If red states are cooling to McCain in June, watch how cold blue their political thermomethers will look in November.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:16 pm |
  15. Jayne in NH

    It means we're mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore. Anyone who would vote for McCain and another 4 years of a Bush-inspired presidency needs his or her head examined. Unfortunately, because our healthcare system is such a mess, that psychiatric visit will not be covered.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:18 pm |
  16. Kim, Canada

    I think it means people know they made a huge mistake in 2004 and do not want to repeat the errors made in the past. The forcast for the average person in the USA is bleak at best.
    Just look at McCain's voting record, everyone can see the same old thing and they don't want it.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:19 pm |
  17. Jason, Koloa, HI

    It means he's winning.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:20 pm |
  18. PT Voorhees, NJ

    What it means is that the people from those states have woken up and see McCain for the phony he is. While I could appreciate the fact that he served the country honorably because I am a veteran myself, the hypocrisy being spewed by this man makes me and others I have spoken to question his integrity. Being a prisoner of war and dawning the military uniform does not make you a person of integrity nor does it qualifies you to reside at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:21 pm |
  19. John St. Louis Mo

    I don know that it means much this early in the campaign. It does however show a switch in what the electorate is looking for. Perhaps the message of changing the politics of Washington, DC is getting through, or perhaps the economy (go figure) is making people take a second look at where the candidates stand. Whatever, I will be more interested in seeing where the swing states are in Sept., Oct., and Nov..

    June 20, 2008 at 2:22 pm |
  20. Jack Colson

    People do not know which way to turn as all of these politicians are jokes when it comes to putting "American People First".
    Polls don't mean much now either.
    We are voting for Ron Paul or some other candidate.
    Jack C

    June 20, 2008 at 2:22 pm |
  21. virginia

    Mr McCain has big problems and i guest Obama could win in the swing state after all that Hillary Clinton preach about only she can win in those state.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:22 pm |
  22. Kirven Dunham

    That the Clinton supporters are Democrats after all. However, it is still early and the GOP are like wounded animals. They get more nasty and rough when they are hurt. For now it give him some of the MO for raising more money.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:23 pm |
  23. Dan, Chantilly Va

    Absolutely nothing. Get back to me in late October.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:24 pm |
  24. Sue/PA

    Hey Jack,

    Missed you yesterday... Have a great weekend.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:24 pm |
  25. T (Fort Worth)

    Plain and simple. People are sick of the Republican grip and the Republicans keep blaming the Dems for stopping them. If my memory serves me right it has been the Republicans with a free reign for the last several years letting Bush and Cheney get away with murder.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:25 pm |
  26. Marie

    It means as time goes on so will Obama's lead as people won't fall for the same attack and fear ads of past Republican campaigns. Bush has pretty much wore those tactics to a thread.

    It doesn't matter how you cut it the McCain policies are almost identical to the Bush policies with a little smoke and mirrors mixed in the confuse the illiterate. Even the Republicans and religous right have a hard time supporting McCain with his flip flopping on almost every issue depending on who he is talking to and where.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:25 pm |
  27. Wendy. San Rafael, CA

    Pretty amazing since Obama didn't campaign in Florida on any level! Once he does campaign, those numbers will rise. And as people get to know him, the gap will widen.

    BTW, these so-called "polls" do not poll those who only use cell phones so how accurate are they? Given the use of cell phones by the young, I would say that gap is much wider than shown on these polls.

    Once the debates are seen, it will be over for McCain. Can't wait!!

    June 20, 2008 at 2:26 pm |
  28. T (Fort Worth)

    Obama wants change and he is doing so unlike McOldester who keeps morphing into Bush daily.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:26 pm |
  29. Ron Kepics

    Hi Jack:

    It means McCain could save allot of time by dropping out now.

    Ron San Diego

    June 20, 2008 at 2:27 pm |
  30. Teri in FL

    Polls don't mean squat 4-5 months before the election. The Republicans still have a lot of time to work on their slime machines and self-induced terror alerts.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:27 pm |
  31. Fish, MN

    That is the first sign of red states going to ping blue following the foot-steps of these battle states.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:27 pm |
  32. Michael Lorton, Virginia

    It is so early in the campaign that it is very difficult to say. It might be a trend indicator, and I think when Obama and Hillary hit the campaign trail next week for the first time will be the proof and pudding of these poll trolls. Keeping my fingers that the polls don't move in a downard trend after next week. We will see what effect that will have on the voters.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:28 pm |
  33. Greg ...Cabot AR

    I think it means that the independent swing voters are finally looking at the real issues and don't give a hoot about cookie recepies, flag pins, crazy preachers, gas tax holidays, middle names or mud slinging contests.

    In this economy, people are hurting and looking for help.

    Fear mongering is not going to work this time.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:29 pm |
  34. Fish, MN

    That is the first sign of red states going to ping blue following the foot-steps of these battle states.
    Trust me, by the end of this process, the whole country becomes blue.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:29 pm |
  35. Josh in Sylvania, Ohio

    Hopefully the rednecks in my state would be wiser this time and vote for Obama instead of McCain. Because a great number of people in my home state of Ohio should have their heads examined for voting to re-elect Bush again in 2004. Why in the world would someone vote against their own wellbeing. That is exactly what an vote for McCain is : a vote against the wellbeing of every person in this country as well as the world. Once Obama wins, then maybe we will see real change and an end to Bush's personal vendetta in Iraq.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:29 pm |
  36. Dayton from Columbia, Maryland

    It means McCain's only chance of winning is to smear Obama's reputation.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:29 pm |
  37. Venia - Philadelphia

    It means this, with over 370,000 jobs loss since january, over 1 million homes in foreclosure, over 4,500 troops died in this senseless war, that the world hates us, gas is at 4.10 and rising daily, we cannot afford john mccain and people are finally waking to that fact. I will never forget the British newspaper the day after the 2004 election when we renominated gwb and the headlines read "How can 54 million people be so dumb?" Well it looks like they got educated.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:29 pm |
  38. Anthony Smith

    Nada! You guys and the polls had Hillary and Rudy as front runners in the beginning. Where are they now?

    Wildwood Crest, NJ

    June 20, 2008 at 2:29 pm |
  39. Mary, Alabama

    I hope that it means, in those old, rather hackneyed terms, that Obama is kicking ass and taking names.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:29 pm |
  40. Venia - Philadelphia

    It means this, with over 370,000 jobs loss since january, over 1 million homes in foreclosure, over 4,500 troops died in this senseless war, that the world hates us, gas is at 4.10 and rising daily, we cannot afford john mccain and people are finally waking to that fact. I will never forget the British newspaper the day after the 2004 election when we renominated gwb and the headlines read "How can 54 million people be so dumb?" Well it looks like they are getting educated.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:30 pm |
  41. Nuwan Sam

    People are feeling the pressure from all the issues this country is facing and hoping for a change. Obama is seen as an agent of change. Those polls are snapshot indicators of reactions for the situation at the moment. They can change anytime depending on future events. So the bottom like is it does not mean anything as far as the presidential election is concerned. However, it will create a feel good situation for Obama camp.

    – Nuwan from Houston, TX

    June 20, 2008 at 2:31 pm |
  42. Gary of El Centro, Ca

    It's too early to put a lot of stock in the polls, but it does seem to shoot down Hillary's argument that Obama is unelectable. I do believe that Obama has a chance not only to win, but win in a landslide. These early polls suggest that McCain is surprisingly weak in areas he should be strong in, and Obama is surprisingly strong in areas where he was perceived to be weak.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:32 pm |
  43. Grace in California

    It means McCain needs to get up to speed if he stands any chance of avoiding the Obama steamroller.

    This week Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama announced their joint campaigning. This bodes even worse for McCain. It only June and he isn't mustering any momentum. He seems frail and his campaign rudderless.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:33 pm |
  44. Connie

    Jack, It means that poor old Bush, sorry I mean McBush will not severe good old Geo.'s third term. People need to leave Hillary alone she is bringing her supporters on board and Rush Limbaugh may have to start popping his pills again.

    Connie from Indiana

    June 20, 2008 at 2:33 pm |
  45. Frank from Peterborough

    It means people are starting to pay attention to what the future might bring and are catching on to the possibility they may have some input into shaping your society.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:33 pm |
  46. AndyZ Fairfax, VA

    It means that asa Lincoln said, "You can fool some of the people some of the time, all of the people some of the time but you can't fool all of the people all of the time." The three states mentioned have moved into the last third of the quote. No more Bush and the NeoCons!

    June 20, 2008 at 2:35 pm |
  47. Nancy K from Indiana

    It means there are a lot of smart voters in the good ol' USA!!!!

    June 20, 2008 at 2:36 pm |
  48. Howard in Saratoga Springs, NY

    It means that the American people can be fooled only once, er, twice, and then they smarten up.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:36 pm |
  49. Timberdoodle

    It means people aren't satisfied with the good ole days and want to expand their horizons and brighten their future.

    McCain's philosophy of man's domination of women to the point of making their decisions has lost it's appeal to many Americans even some of the men. The old timers view of women and children should be seen and not heard has wore out it's welcome.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:38 pm |
  50. mitch martin arkansaw

    it means the tactics, that didn't work for hillary,and that mccain has embraced,since becoming the gop presumptive nominee,are out the window ,and the politics of the past ,are over.the 'change' is already happening,and we are on our way to correcting the mistakes of the past several decades.whether you like him or not,the good reverend wright ,WAS right,and "a change is a comin' ."

    June 20, 2008 at 2:39 pm |
  51. Fred, Wylie, TX

    It simply means McCain has a problem, which continues to deepen as people lose their jobs.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:40 pm |
  52. Dick B

    It means nothing. Normal people are outside enjoying the sunshine not inside answering polls on the telephone.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:41 pm |
  53. Jenny


    Maybe it is time for McCain to actually have to work in this campaign. I hear the mighty O train coming down the tracks. And it ain’t Oprah!!

    Jenny Rome Ga
    sorry for the repost. I just saw my typos. How embarressing. I am a teacher.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:41 pm |
  54. Ginnessa

    It means that Obama is going to sweep the floor with McCain. I know that it is still early in the campaign and that you can't put too much stock in the polls; however, Obama's early lead in these swing states are signs that he stands a tremendous chance of being elected.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:41 pm |
  55. Adam Mercer Oshawa, Ontario


    It means the party is coming together, and it means McCain needs to start reading more Senate memos so he doesn't feel too far out of the loop when he goes back.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:42 pm |
  56. Paulette Dallas,PA

    It means that Hillary is supporting Obama and asking her followers to throw their weight behind him.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:43 pm |
  57. Mark G, St. Paul MN

    About the most you can say is that Obama isn't behind at the moment. Beyond that, November is a long ways away. We don't know enough about Obama to know what hidden land mines might sway public opinion.

    June 20, 2008 at 2:43 pm |
  58. Sandra fromTexas

    It means we better listen close for that "old Beachboys song, Bomb,Bomb,Bomb Iran."

    June 20, 2008 at 2:44 pm |
  59. Tom in Desoto Texas

    It means even the die hard republicans are hurting and they realize McCain offers just more of the same.

    June 20, 2008 at 3:47 pm |
  60. Vinnie Vino

    This is very interesting, because he is doing so well in pro-Hillary states without her being on the ticket. Hopefully Obama winning in these states is not contributed to the voters anticipating him slecting her to be his V.P.

    C.I., New York

    June 20, 2008 at 3:49 pm |
  61. Richard Sternagel

    It means that Change Is In The Air! People are fed up with 8 years of Bush and don't want his surrogate McCain either!

    June 20, 2008 at 3:50 pm |
  62. Brian from Oakland CA

    With millions of small contributors behind Obama, news that he leads in swing states means that undecideds will be more willing to support him, and McBush will be forced to defend his home turk like North Carolina and Georgia, instead of focusing on Ohio and Florida.

    June 20, 2008 at 3:50 pm |
  63. Sean from Kentucky

    Jack at this point it doesnt mean squat. Anything can happen in five months, I believe about five months ago Hillary Clinton was the
    "presumptive nominee", that said Obama will most likely take the vast majority of swing states due to the sheer amount of new democrats.

    June 20, 2008 at 3:50 pm |
  64. peggy


    I am glad people are begining to see the light at the end of the tunnel,
    I just wish with all my heart that Tennessee wakes up also.

    June 20, 2008 at 3:51 pm |
  65. Raj, Toronto

    Even places that McCain is winning in so called red states, the lead is closing fast and no debates have happened as of yet. Obama is going to crush McCain.

    June 20, 2008 at 3:51 pm |
  66. Nick - Cary, North Carolina

    It means McCain better keep his day job.

    June 20, 2008 at 3:52 pm |
  67. Rudy NYC

    It means little or nothing at this point to me. It probably matters most to the people of those particular states, who are probably wondering just who did they talk to. Wasn't me? Besides, most of these polls have to small of a sample of the population anyway.

    June 20, 2008 at 3:53 pm |
  68. Diane Glasser

    It means that the voters have finally learned their lesson in having voted for a Republican President. They want to get their country back from an administration that has stolen their pride, currency,and security. I just want to say "Wake up America" this is your only chance to save our Country from the wolves of deceit and corruption. We need change.

    June 20, 2008 at 3:53 pm |
  69. Edgar, Texas

    It means people are slowly coming to their senses.

    June 20, 2008 at 3:53 pm |
  70. Dan

    Simple, it means the democratic party isn't as fractured as some may lead you to believe. Face it folks, 8 years of George Bush has taken its toll on the republican party. Like it or not, this is going to be a landslide.

    June 20, 2008 at 3:53 pm |
  71. don in naples, florida

    I'm surprised that Obama isn't beating Mccain in the polls by a larger margin. Mccain is too old and too much like G.W. Bush. His self proclaimed straight talk is absolutely ridiculous. Mccain is indecisive and waffles back and forth a great deal– except of course on iraq. I think that if Obama selects a strong V.P. with an extensive military background, Mccain can turn the lights out on his chances. Obama will be seen as hypocritical when he selects a grey-haired veteran politician to be his v.p., but it really is the only way to take away Mccain's trump card on national security. Obama will beat Mccain easily. Mccain has an uphill battle, even if he does play the underdog, or victim role throughout his campaign.

    June 20, 2008 at 3:57 pm |
  72. Aaron B.; Champaign, IL

    I'm more interested in the fact that absolutely zero souther states are even remotely close to leaning toward Obama. I should hope that party lines aren't so rigid that ignorance prevails over common sense... but, then again, this is America.

    June 20, 2008 at 3:59 pm |
  73. Big Jeff, Los Angeles

    It means McCain can enjoy early retirement come November.

    Enjoy your golden... err.. platinum years John.

    June 20, 2008 at 3:59 pm |
  74. Tom H in Phoenix, AZ

    It means Sen. Obama is ahead in the polls. We can only read polls for what they are. I guarantee the polls will read something different next week, and the week after, and the week after that. The only poll that matters is the one on Nov 2nd...Election Day! Let's hope we don't repeat 2000 or 2004...fingers crossed for a clean election.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:00 pm |
  75. Bill in Oklahoma

    It means nothing. I suppose it will mean something, if he has more votes in november. But everything until then is accurate to + or- 3% or 5%.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:01 pm |
  76. Ron from Colorado

    It can mean many things. 1) More & more people are listening to Obama. 2) Many people, Republican, Democrat, & Independent, are fed up with current, failing policies. 3) More people are getting involved in the process because they want to be heard.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:01 pm |
  77. Derick, Greenlawn NY

    Jack, more than anything it means that John McCain is going to have to put a lot of time, energy and money into those states. That gives Obama an opportunity to sneak in the back door in Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado and Virginia, and possibly North Carolina and Georgia.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:03 pm |
  78. Terry in Hanover County

    I think I'll wait until November for the only true poll when actual votes on election day are counted. Until then, these early polls are only good for one thing - filling air time. Have a great weekend, Jack.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:03 pm |
  79. L.M.,Arizona

    It means it will be a very close race and will come down to people who close the curtains and then make up their minds whether they are democrats,independents,republicans,or others.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:04 pm |
  80. Nora Corpus Christi Texas

    Jack, it simply means you better buckle up, the Republicans are about to get really ugly, the clean campaign McCain said he was going to run, just got thrown under the bus. The smear campaign is only going to get worse. Republicans are getting ready to show us just how nasty they can get when we don't play Republicans Win!!!

    June 20, 2008 at 4:05 pm |
  81. Paul

    Simple. People know who brought them the wrong war, foreclosures, high gas(dancing in Saudi Arabia), empty promises and no show during Katrina. They know that McCain didn't stand up and fight instead he was voting with Bushevil 95%. They know that McCain is talking about winning the war against the country that didn't attack us. They know that McCain and Bush are just twins of deception.

    Chantilly, Virginia

    June 20, 2008 at 4:05 pm |
  82. john marlton, nj

    It means the media is starting the same unbalanced crap with McCain as they did with Clinton versus Obama.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:06 pm |
  83. Andrew

    It means a lot of Republicans won't be fooled again by a party that has betrayed their interests and values!!

    June 20, 2008 at 4:10 pm |
  84. Andre

    It means McCain has big problems. I wouldn't be surprised if there was an attack on Iran or some terror alert or the release of an old Bin Laden tape or maybe all three before the election. If you think the GOP is fighting nasty now wait until the fall. The republicans are going drive American politics into the gutter.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:10 pm |
  85. ben.....La.

    It simply means he needs to continue with his message just as often as he can and when ever and wherever he can. It's a long ways and a long time before it's over.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:13 pm |
  86. Pugas-Az

    It is still early in the campaign, and the fat lady is still warming up her vocal cords.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:13 pm |
  87. liz from Alabama

    It means that we don't want another chapter in a terribly written book of fiction. Everyone across the country wants to start the first chapter of a refreshing new best selling book of non-fiction.


    June 20, 2008 at 4:13 pm |
  88. Darren S.

    It means John McCain is going to be blowing cash his campaign doesn't have, to win states that used to go Republican.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:17 pm |
  89. Karen Kirby

    It means that Obama will probably win Pennsylvania and Ohio and the Supreme Court will give Florida to McCain.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:18 pm |
  90. Glo Gartner Taos NM

    Jack, I am a 71 year old senior on social security and I have never
    donated to a candidate....till Barack Obama! I have donated $200 to
    the best man running and all the trash being said about him just
    irritates me to no end. This is a once in a lifetime candidate that
    has so much to give to our America and time will tell what a great
    person he truly is. After 8 years of this present Administration....Obama
    is like a breath of fresh air and the thought that we the people are
    funding his campaign is even more refreshing and exciting for the
    first time in my adult life....I am REALLY proud to be an American!

    June 20, 2008 at 4:18 pm |
  91. Diane

    It doesn't mean what Obama thinks it means.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:19 pm |
  92. Casey

    @AndyZ Fairfax, VA

    I thought that was PT Barnum who said that.... 😉

    June 20, 2008 at 4:20 pm |
  93. Donna Colorado Springs,Co

    What it means is that finally, maybe, the country is thinking clearly about what the republican party with its band of hypocrits has done to this country and are willing to elect someone who isn't named Bush. I'm so tired of this country being divided into red or blue states. McCain[McBush] would just be more of the same. I'm very happy that Obama is leading in some key states as I live in an important one,namely Colorado, which has always gone to the dark side.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:20 pm |
  94. Derek New Jersey

    If these polls stay true until october, just watch how other states can go.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:22 pm |
  95. jason king

    It amazes me that Presidential candidates can raise in excess of $500 million in order to pay for their campaigns. IF either candidate really wanted to win votes then donate that money to the citizens who really need it. Votes are sure to come rolling in in November.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:22 pm |
  96. Sandy Adas

    Obama made the right choice to opt out of public financing. Since McCain is unwilling or unable to put a stop to the 527 smear ads, Obama needs the power of the funds from his millions of supporters to counteract the Republican tactics.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:23 pm |
  97. Keith from Irving Texas

    It means that the GOP's sacrificial lamb candidate policy (John McSame) worked.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:23 pm |
  98. Scott - Wichita, Kansas

    The same thing it meant when McCain had the lead on your little map, Jack.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:23 pm |
  99. David,San Bernardino,CA.

    It means that it is June. The only poll I pay any attention to is the one on the second Tuesday in November.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:23 pm |
  100. Miles, Vero Beach FL

    What matters is that we put this mess of the last seven years behind us!

    June 20, 2008 at 4:25 pm |
  101. Eric Roberts

    All politicians go back on the word sooner or later. What we need to be concerned with is exactly what they go back on their words about. I trust Obama to keep his word on his promise to help develop our domestic economy by developing sustatinable, renewable energy in America – to make health care affordable for all Americans – to increase taxes on the wealthiest Americans who have had a windfall profit under Bush – to rebuild good relations with our allies in the world – to work towards a saner and more humane world for us and for our posterity.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:25 pm |
  102. Pat

    Obama stated he does approve of public financing but not as it stands. It needs an overhaul and until then, it seems reasonable to continue being financed by the American people and not by 527's (lobbyists, pacs). He said he would tell us the truth and the polls may not like it, but he is telling us the truth.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:26 pm |
  103. Norma Armstead

    Jack one would have to have a mental problem to choose 85mil. when they can raise 4 or 5 times that much from those of us who believe in his abliity to bring real change to this country of ours. Thank God he is smart enough not to bow to those who truely do not want to see him win or even have a real chance of winning this election. This mind game McCain and many in the media are trying to play is not even a good game. They really should fold. Norma

    June 20, 2008 at 4:27 pm |
  104. Robert from Atlanta

    Jack it is simple they like him and know that McCain is a 3rd Bush term. If no one stills this one from the people like they did in the last two election.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:28 pm |
  105. Phyllis from Memphis

    It really shouldn't matter. No big deal. Let's discussion the real issues like the price of gas. Go Obama Go!!

    June 20, 2008 at 4:28 pm |
  106. Joseph

    It means the American people are more hungry for change than they have ever been before. It means the electoral map will be different because of Obama. It means that John McCain needs to realize that Obama is playing a 50 state strategy and he is delivering on his promise to rid the divide between red and blue states. It means Obama will tackle so called red states. It means we should start thinking about calling Barack the President-elect of the United States.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:29 pm |
  107. Shaun

    Jack I love ya, but I'm sorry to say that the average joe is not engrossed in the 24-hour news cycle, and is probably going to zone out of the "scandal-response-repudiation-new scandal" cycle until about convention time. How can McCain spin this to make people care?

    Tell this to the average person on the street: "Hey, Obama said he was going to use taxpayer money to campaign, but decided to use his own money instead. Money that doesn't include PAC or lobbyist contributions but is mostly from small donations from ordinary people". The average joe is going to say "What? Candidates use MY tax money? And you say I should be mad at him because he doesn't want to use my tax money but his own instead?" This "scandal" is only for the news junkies, like you and me.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:31 pm |
  108. Carl, Houston, TX

    It means there's hope! John McCain better start sweating. I'm predicting Mississippi and Alabama will turn blue on him.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:32 pm |
  109. NANCY , Grand Ledge MI

    It means McCain is in trouble for changing from a straight talking independent, to being a Bush clone!! Welcome President Obama!!

    June 20, 2008 at 4:32 pm |
  110. Jazmone

    No it doesn't matter. Why is this a problem? The possibility of five hundred million vs. eighty-five million – you do the math. It's a no brainer! The Republicans wish they had someone who could raise that kind of money. And any Democrat that says that it's wrong lacks common sense. All bets are off!!! GO OBAMA!!!

    June 20, 2008 at 4:34 pm |
  111. Becky Mcginty

    The truth is that to all of us Obama supporters it does not mattter. We are more interested in the issues of the economy, health care and the war facing this country.The fact is that he is not taking Pac and federal lobbyists money and that has more impact with his supporters than the public finance issue. To face the Republican machine and the all of the tricks that they will have up their sleeve, he will need this advantage. We don't want to end up with a "big fat zero" in November as Democrats have in the past two elections. It is more important that he gets elected and solve our country's problems

    June 20, 2008 at 4:35 pm |
  112. penny dfw

    for so many years, it was politics as usual. this year, the economy, fuel prices and the abysmal health care system has finally woken the american public that the govt is supposed to work for us. obama gives people the hope that finally someone might help us get back our govt.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:35 pm |
  113. Dave from Ontario

    It means that Florida, the most notorious swing state in US political history, is already dusting off their chad machines, and testing new electronic voting machines that are manufactured in Crawford, Texas.

    McCain is well aware that the only way he'll beat Obama, will be his close ties to the Bush family, and their network of loyalists who know how to fix elections.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:36 pm |
  114. George in Lakeland, Florida

    Of course it doesn't matter, Jack. In fact, Obama would have been a dope to fall into the trap McCain and the Republicans set for him. Remember it was McCain who sponsored the campaign finance bill, and he knows how to use the loopholes in it. And remember that the Republican National Committee has overflowing coffers from which to draw campaign funds. And remember those poisonous 527 groups with their unlimited resources... C'mon Jack, you're not one of those wide-eyed kids who call themselves pundits yet can't recognize a con when they see one.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:36 pm |
  115. Marty, Idaho

    It means that Obama is leading in the polls in those three states.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:36 pm |
  116. jodi clausman

    It means the American people are so desperate they fail to look beyond all his promises of change and preaching style. I feel like we are Germany in the 1930's. Hillary needs to run as an independent. Congress needs new faces in those seats.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:37 pm |
  117. Don in Florida

    Jack it means that Obama better remember New Hampshire and keep the pressure no McCain. He better not start believing the press (hype) and keep his nose to the grindstone.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:40 pm |
  118. Christine

    Who in their right mind would limit themselves to less money than they have available to spend? Both nominees have said things and changed there minds in the past year or so... Such as McCain and his no drilling, ooops yes drill change... The people are more interested in important issues not these small, unimportant topics used to distract us from the bigger picture. Everyone changes their mind about one thing or another at some point in their lives, so for some people to take the high ground and act like it is so wrong to change your mind about an obviously smarter decision is just plain ignorant! I bet the people who voted for Pres. Bush wish they could have been smart enough to change their minds about voting for him back when it mattered. Unfortunately for us Americans, those voters were not smart enough when it counted... I say, change your mind when you realize the change is the best answer... Only a fool would choose answer (A) after realizing answer (B) is correct.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:41 pm |
  119. Eduardo from Montreal

    It's the same trend we've been seeing for the past few months, people really are absolutely sick of the Republican party. If you look at all the small congressional elections that have been going on under the radar, nearly all of them, swing ones and even some usually safe Republican zones, have been taken by the Democrats. It does appear like the public is going to punish the Republicans this time, at the congressional, senatorial, and presidential level, for the current state of affairs of the country.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:43 pm |
  120. Greg, Los Angeles,Ca

    Jack I thought you ignored these polls and said they were meaningless. Obama better choose Hillary as his VP the actual winner of those states or he will blow it (he is a democrat probaly will find a way too).

    Jack you better jump on the band wagon and join us 18 million voters who voted for Hillary. Come on you are starting to look like a nice guy now without your contstant daily anti-Hillary rants.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:45 pm |
  121. Mike

    Obama will win a landslide victory, but the media will keep it interesting with selective polling.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:46 pm |
  122. Tim in Vero Beach Florida

    Hi Jack,
    It means that McCain is going to get a good old fashoned whooping.
    All of the things that McCain is complaining to the voters about Obama is nothing more than whining.
    If this is the best McCain has to throw at Obama he may as well throw in the towel right now. People can see right through McCain.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:48 pm |
  123. Nicholas J, Pembroke Pines FL

    It could mean that Obama could win those states in the fall by huge margins if he could keep up the momentum.

    But, much like the Primaries, things can be said or dug up and reveled that could compromise Obamas' positions in those and other states (but the same goes for McCain).

    All in all, Jack, I wouldn't put my money on the table just yet. Its still early in the game. Pick up a chair, chips and soda and enjoy the game before it gets truly ugly in the later months.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:49 pm |
  124. Leticia Orange Park,Fl.

    It means that now that the democratic primary season is over, it's definately on!! America has learned that you can't keep painting the wall with red paint and expecting it to come out blue. Thank God!!

    June 20, 2008 at 4:50 pm |
  125. SHARON

    This election kind of reminds me of choosing a new car in today's world. You can continue to buy what the automakers have been throwing at us for years and pay the price week after week, or you could be brave and go for the new innovative models that reflect today's world. No doubt in my mind which one I would chose. Change is in the air and I think people in this country are ready to move ahead and buy the fresh, innovative model being offered.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:50 pm |
  126. Jenny from Nanuet, New York

    It means McCain better get out of harm's way. A landslide is coming!

    June 20, 2008 at 4:51 pm |
  127. Carol, Coulterville, CA

    It means they like Obama better than McCain. It's that simple.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:51 pm |
  128. Justin from Wichita, KS

    It means that the people of Florida might actually conduct an election correctly for once. They messed up the 2000 election as everyone is well aware of and once again didn't use their heads when re-electing Bush in '04. And yes, Ohio, you too might actually get it right this time. (Keep in mind though, we did just get over our Obama/Clinton fiasco in the Fl primaries so I guess you never know)

    June 20, 2008 at 4:53 pm |
  129. Eleanora Feucht

    It means that Obama owes Hillary a bg "thank You". She is the one who won lots of votes in most of the swing states.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:59 pm |
  130. dennis north carolina

    its great and I hope it holds through the election.

    June 20, 2008 at 4:59 pm |
  131. Chicago Bob from Illinois

    It's bad news for the GOP because it means the dirt they are throwing at Obama is not sticking. And Obama's lead will only increase as he gets his message out.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:01 pm |
  132. Janice, Illinois

    It means there a a lot of very, VERY stupid people in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:01 pm |
  133. wendy Illinois

    It means that the people you guys are polling are more geared toward Obama's demographics. There is no way that Obama is leading McCain in all these states, particularly MI or FL. He simply will not win MI or FL. Those voters know all too well that he deliberately prevented having their votes seated.....until it no longer mattered in the primary races. You guys always try to make Obama look more electable than he really is and everyone knows it. You guys carry no weight in terms of objectivity about this race. I guess you'll be very disappointed when he loses the GE.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:01 pm |
  134. Ike

    It means Obama is at the top of the hill and McCain is at the bottom looking up before the landslide begins.

    Harrisburg, PA

    June 20, 2008 at 5:01 pm |
  135. Janet,PA

    It just means that people are tired of the Republicans. I'm glad my state is leaning Democratic. I think any Democrat, Clinton,Obama, or Edwards would be doing well in these swing states.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:02 pm |
  136. Karl in CA

    Even peoples in "swing" states have brains and they're just using them.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:03 pm |
  137. emily hollywood, florida

    It means people are tired of old politics as usual. Mccain will never understands how ordinary folks are suffering, after all, he is married to a rich woman. i think he needs to retire, he is soo boring. and too old . he has no new ideas. obama outsmart him on a daily basis.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:05 pm |
  138. craig

    Smart people are swinging, swinging for the hope, not fear, swinging for unity, not disunity, swinging to participate, not to be excluded. Throw me a pitch, I'll swing also. Whoops, I have already hit, got a hit in Barrack Obama.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:05 pm |
  139. Ron Burcham

    It doesn't mean much to me. I live in Florida and I don't ever remember any of these polls asking my opinion or the opinion of anyone I know. Fact is, I was a Clinton supporter and there is no way in hell that Obama can win Florida. You saw W. Virginia and Kentucky in the Democratic Primary. That is the way it will look in the General Election. McCain will just be where Hillary's name should have been. Obama will still carry about the same percentage of the vote in the end.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:06 pm |
  140. Buddy


    Easy. Obama leading McCain in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio four and a half months prior to the election plus Obama's ability to raise 500 million dollars for his campaign equals adios John McCain.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:06 pm |
  141. Nan

    It doesn't mean a lot right now. There is so much time between now and the election in November. All of the news organizations need to calm down and let the election happen. They seem to want to "project" a winner long before the polls even open. The Republicans have many tricks in their bag and the Democrats are better than anyone at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:07 pm |
  142. Francis from Newark, DE

    It simply means that there are still a lot of people who were formerly misinformed and confused by the cloud of diverse and different campaign messages that have recently been straightened out. Certainly, swaying opinions in some states towards Barack Obama should show that his policies and politics is slowly being understood and well-received. As people are out of the political muck, they can now clearly see the two candidates' diverging policies, and they're obviously going for Obama.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:07 pm |
  143. Ann Holt

    So as long as the republicans were living "High On The Hog" money sources weren't a issue but now the pig has been roasted they are squealing.
    Get Over It!!!

    Ann in Savannah

    June 20, 2008 at 5:07 pm |
  144. Gina - Lancaster, PA

    It means Change is coming – and I can hardly wait.

    To quote Phil Collins...
    "I can feel it, coming in the air tonight... Hold on"

    Yes we can.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:07 pm |
  145. Rick from NJ

    Absolutly nothing.
    Obama is still being vetted.
    Race is also a factor that will not be forseen in the polling.
    Remember: "there will be an elephant in the voting booth"
    People are not honest about race.
    I wouldn't be confident about any polls.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:08 pm |
  146. Shari

    I don't think any of these polls reflect the true voting base of Obama. Why ? Because there are 8 of us in my family voting for Obama and we were not democrats before this election. I know of dozens of people who are in this boat with us. I can't wait for the general election when every red state in this country turns blue!! "We the People" have had enough of the politics as usual. And the polls in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania are just the tip of the iceburg. "We the people "are taking back our government.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:08 pm |
  147. Chris Franklin, NC

    It means all those sore losers of Senator Clinton`s campaign are finally coming to there senses so now we Democrats can make a major blow-out on John Mccain. I would not be suprised if Senator Obama won every single state.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:09 pm |
  148. Rick from NJ

    Clinton supporters are not going to vote for Obama because of the media's unfair treatment.
    They are polling as if they would but believe me there are millions of people that will not vote for him.
    The race factor is also not being included

    June 20, 2008 at 5:10 pm |
  149. Matt

    It means that the election was over at hello.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:10 pm |
  150. Eddie

    With Florida budget cuts in education and emergency services under jeb Bush and charlie Christ, Floridians are tired of the Republicans fiscal irresponsibility, the Obama lead is real this time and might even be larger come November, as a registered republican my family has been hit hard by the economic moves of the current administration, and the costly war in Iraq, while there is a budget crisis occuring right here at home. I and my family will vote for change which means voting for Obama. It's time to give the democrats a chance to fix this mess this state and nation is in.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:21 pm |
  151. Ron from Parker CO


    It means that people are seeing through McCain's "double-talk" express and are reacting favorably to Obama "let's change the way things get done in Washington".

    McCain is a nice guy but 4 more years of the same'ole, same'ole stuff would be ruinous.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:23 pm |
  152. George from MARIETTA

    It means "President Obama"

    June 20, 2008 at 5:23 pm |
  153. Marlie:

    It means Clinton was and is not the be all and end all.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:23 pm |
  154. Phil Hollis

    Jack, it means McCain should keep his day job. With what the republicans did today in the house, with the help of a few democrats that were in it up to their eyeballs, has made this country sick of the last eight years & McCain represents more of the same and we know it!!

    June 20, 2008 at 5:23 pm |
  155. Bitter in Trinity, Texas

    It means that many Americans are feed up with the Republicans and want some changes...any change will do.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:25 pm |
  156. Katie, NJ

    I am so happy to know that Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida have seen the light! Bravo for them! We need a president for the people, I am glad my friends in Florida and Ohio are finally seeing this in Obama. People are finally coming up to their senses!

    June 20, 2008 at 5:25 pm |
  157. Jean

    It means that the Dems have finally come up with a candidate that is going to trounce the GOP in the fall. By the time the votes are done being counted, Obama will have won not only the popular vote by a large margin, but also the electoral vote. The Dems are not going to risk another close count like in '00 &'04. The will come out in force. As a Repblican I will be helping them.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:25 pm |
  158. Dennis

    With Obama leading in the swing states,I see alot stupid voters. Obama is going to give license to illegals and the Democrats are in bed with the environmental wackos. I guess the Obama supporters don't mind paying high gas prices. Here's your change with Obama,your going from bad to worst.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:25 pm |
  159. james in K.C.

    Jack, I think it shows that Obama is about to become the next president of the United States. I just wish he would say something about his position on strengthening our borders. He doesn't need Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, He needs working class whites who worry about securing their jobs. He needs working class whites who are tired of illegal immigrants pouring into their communities. He needs to prove to these people that he can and will fight for them. Then he (Obama) needs to go out and do it.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:26 pm |
  160. Kathy/ GA

    It means that the people who Hillary described as "white with little or no education" are finally becoming educated. It is no secret that whether you are black or white the color that counts is green and that is a color that we have seen little of in the last seven and one-half years.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:26 pm |
  161. Richard Harper

    It means that you and the rest of the media think you have nothing better or more important to talk about. Not that the election is not important...but it is still months away. And who is leading in what poll now just is not important to most of us. Let's talk about issues,Lord knows we have enough of them in this country. [Tishomingo, Okla.]

    June 20, 2008 at 5:27 pm |
  162. Mike, ABQ, NM

    It means that not even the polling companies can make this look like a "close race." No matter how they try and balance the answers of people being polled the public is coming out for the democrtic party and for Obama. It will take more than altering voting machines and voter caging lists to get republicans in office this time.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:27 pm |
  163. David in Portland, OR

    It means quite simply Hillary was wrong. The majority of American voters are going to support a viable canididate that is in opposition to the Republican party. We've had enough of Bush, & McCain is too much like him to stand a chance. The gap between the two will only widen after the debates.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:27 pm |
  164. James in California

    It means that Obama, as a candidate, hasn't peaked. There are still those out there that are being moved by what he has to say. I voted for Hillary in the California primary, but would support Obama if there were a revote tomorrow.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:27 pm |
  165. emily hollywood, florida

    Jack, Mccain will never get the white house no mather how they spin. he has war writen all over him . he tried to soften his image, but it will not help him.

    June 20, 2008 at 5:28 pm |