.
How much faith do you have in an online betting site to pick the winner in the Republican primary?
January 4th, 2012
05:00 PM ET

How much faith do you have in an online betting site to pick the winner in the Republican primary?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

While some of us obsess over the polls, maybe there's a better way:

In Ireland there is an online betting parlor which boasts stunning accuracy in predicting the outcome of elections.

Intrade is a website which lets users swap contracts on events and its users are amazingly good at getting election results right.

In the 2004 presidential election Intrade bettors correctly picked the winner of every single state. In 2008 - they missed only two.

And, not to discourage the gaggle of GOP wannabees this year, but according to Intrade they have no shot. None.

Intrade pegs Romney at an 80% chance of winning the nomination. The next closest candidate is Newt Gingrich at 5%.

Which means the crop of Republican hopefuls can probably go home now and dream of what might have been.

Granted some of them will now that Iowa is over - see Michele Bachmann - and especially after New Hampshire is over, where Romney is expected to win by a landslide.

But there will likely be a few who refuse to recognize reality and instead stumble forward into South Carolina and beyond, spending other people's money, banging their jaws together in a never-ending quest to avoid what in their heart of hearts they know is going to happen anyway: They're going to lose.

And according to Intrade, if their name isn't Romney, they've already lost.

So wouldn't it be better if they just went away? Yes, it would. For all of us.

We're one week into the election year and I'm already tired of it.

I remember the national root canal that was Barack Obama vs. Hillary Clinton... as the two of them lurched from one primary to the next in a vicious knife fight for delegates that I thought would never end.

In the end, the country has a clear case of political fatigue.

If you believe Intrade, we can avoid all that.

Here’s my question to you: How much faith do you have in an online betting site to pick the winner in the Republican primary?

Interested to know which ones made it on air?

FULL POST

Posted by
Filed under: 2012 Election • GOP • GOP Ticket • Republican Party
What will it take for this country to elect a woman president?
January 4th, 2012
04:00 PM ET

What will it take for this country to elect a woman president?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

Michele Bachmann's dreams of being president are history. And so too is the possibility of the U.S. electing its first woman president - at least for another four years.

This was the second election in a row where a woman tried and failed to become president.

Hillary Clinton made a great run at it in 2008, but in the end lost the Democratic Party's nomination to Barack Obama.

When Clinton bowed out, she acknowledged she wasn't able to "shatter that highest, hardest glass ceiling" but noted that her supporters put about 18 million cracks in it. At the time, polls suggested Americans were more ready for a black president than a woman president.

Fast forward four years, and there were high expectations for Bachmann, at least in her birth state of Iowa.

Bachmann entered the race as a tea party favorite and became the first woman to win the Ames Straw Poll in August. Unfortunately for Bachmann, that was the high point of her campaign.

Here’s my question to you: What will it take for this country to elect a woman president?

Interested to know which ones made it on air?

FULL POST