(PHOTO CREDIT: GETTY IMAGES)
FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
It's a mystery to many: why isn't Barack Obama farther ahead in the polls?
CNN's poll of polls shows Obama up by 5 points, leading John McCain 45% to 40%. In most polls, he rarely breaks 50%. A new USA Today/Gallup Poll actually shows McCain leading Obama 49% to 45% percent among likely voters.
It seems like Obama should be miles ahead of McCain when you consider the political climate. Americans can no longer stand President Bush, or the Republican Party, or the war in Iraq. And of course there's the economy. Also, Obama has run a pretty flawless campaign – highlighted by that hugely successful trip overseas last week. John McCain, on the other hand spent last week making one mistake after another.
One Democratic pollster tells the New York Times that Obama still faces many obstacles. He's young, African-American, relatively inexperienced and has a background that not many Americans can relate to.
Also, his rival, John McCain, has a history of appealing to independent voters, which is part of the reason why his supporters argued during the primaries that he was the strongest general election candidate.
Robert Novak writes in his column that Obama's difficulty reaching the 50% mark is due to an "overwhelmingly white" undecided vote of 10% to 15%. It's left some Republicans speculating whether McCain might be able to "back into" the presidency much like he did his party's nomination. This is despite the fact that even Novak describes McCain as "wooden" and acknowledges "not even Bob Dole's dismal candidacy in 1996 generated less enthusiasm in GOP ranks than McCain's current effort".
Here’s my question to you: Why isn’t Barack Obama doing better in the polls?
Interested to know which ones made it on air?
Because the press jumps on every possible negative thing they can about Obama, but ignores many of McCain's numerous gaffes and flip-flops… Don't take my word for it, read the study documented by the LA Times. 72% of evening news statements about Obama are negative as compared to 57% negative for McCain. When you level the playing field, Obama will pull ahead.
Lyndsey from Indiana writes:
I'd like to see a poll of first-time voters and see just how far ahead in the polls he would be then. The fact is, these polls just don't reach young and/or first-time voters like me, who from what I've seen are heavily in favor of Obama.
Gary from Alaska writes:
Jack, This country is not ready for a black president. Guess this isn't politically correct to say but I think it's true. Just wait until the Obama supporters get into that private, concealed voting booth.
Will from Maryland writes:
Come on, Jack. This is a country that re-elected Bush. Think about it.
Polls are computed by who answers the phone. Most Americans who will try to vote for Obama are working the second job. Or they are screening their calls, trying to duck the bank that wants to foreclose the house, collect on the credit cards they've maxed-out to pay for the gas that they need to get to the job whose wages don't pay the bills anymore. Or they’ve had the phone turned off.
Leo from Florida writes:
Because it's the summer and nobody is paying attention.
Rufus from Twentynine Palms, California writes:
It's very simple, Jack. Contrary to General Patton's assertion that Americans like a winner, the verifiable, object truth confirms that Americans actually like underdogs. Barack Obama is a winner...he's young, vivacious, and he can shoot the basketball from downtown, a true Dream Teamer. John McCain, on the other hand, is a loser...he's old, stodgy, and 99% scar tissue. Johnny-Mac is the 1962 New York Mets. Just wait, now that John McCain has a new band-aid, expect to see his poll numbers go through the roof.
Because the Polls are counted and counted again to get the wanted results. If the Polls said either candidate would be a landslide not very many people would vote woud they. The Polls and experts just never seem to be right except you and Wolf.
The reason why Obama isn't doing well in the polls is because 15% are still undecided. They're waiting to see what Obama can do and will more than likely decide after the convention and debates. If most of those 15% went for Obama, it will be all over for McCain.
Probably because of who they are polling and how they ask the question Jack. I mean they take a poll every five minutes and it's always different. Why not take one poll a month of about 2500 people across the U.S. in different income catagories that would give a truer picture of how the nation is voting.
first of all...who are the people being polled? certainly not any one I know...and second people are busy trying to earn a living not follow polls...everyone knows at this point who they are going to vote for...polls are notoriously inaccurate and undependable..that says it all
I have one answer for you Jack.: Generation Gap= cellphones.
Did they ever ask those pollsters if they poll the cellphones holders?
Cell phones. Pollsters don't (usually) dial potential voters who only own a cell phone. The demographics for cell phone only voters: People under 30, blacks and hispanics. Guess who they would most likely vote for? I'll give you a hint - it's not John McCain.
There is one caveat to this observation: People who don't have a landline phone don't usually vote in elections. But don't tell anyone I said that.
The polls aren't what they used to be because now we have 24/7 news coverage and the Internet (Information Cesspool) changing the stories and rankings every minute of every day. The only poll that counts is in November, unless you have a brother running a major electoral state and your Dad's friends on the Supreme Court.
Polls don't tell the story...they're just a small sampling. but to hear news media...you'd think that's how the vote will go...hogwash. It's actually very unintelligent to put too much faith in "polls"
Well from what I can tell Jack it would seem Americans are more interested in supporting a particular political party than they are concerned about their own particular situation and their country's well being.
Of course you also have a large contingent of so called news medias and talk show hosts who make a very good living at deceiving the public and some of their listeners may not be capable of sortng the wheat from the Chaff.
It's the 800 pound gorilla in the room. The man is African-American. My 84 year old mother is a very liberal Quaker, but she just can't manage to vote for a black man. It's generational.
Not to worry Jack. For a freshman senator that nobody knew before Iowa, I think he's doing pretty well in the polls. And the polls tend not to reflect first time voters, of which there will be many this time around. I believe the enthusiasm for Obama by new voters will carry the day, it just won't be reflected in the polls.
Everyone keeps asking this question as if they don't see the "Big Pink Elephant" in the room. No African American Presidential candidate (and make no mistake, that is how Senator Obama is seen by most) is going to lead in any polls taken in the United States. We are just not that evolved. You can also forget that nonsense about some 80% of people polled being ready for an African American President. That is just the politically correct thing to say when someone asks...
Mertis in Atlanta
It's pretty simple Jack, the GOP continues to make this election (like others before it) an "Us versus Them mentality." It is a classic case of divide and conquer. People need to realize the world isn’t always black and white, there is a gray area too.
I think people are still in awe of this young man who has come out of nowhere to be the most popular Politician in the US, but as soon as they realize that his thoughts and ideas are real and that the man himself is real, things will change.
William N.B. Canada.
That is simple. John McCain is appealing to the greed of the American people with his flip flop on oil drilling and taxes. That is a sure fire vote getter.
Give him a chance, Jack. Lower in the polls was expected when he was away from the country for 10 days. The question should be, "Why hasn't McCain done better in the polls with Obama out of the country for 10 days". As soon as he gets out there in front of America a few times, you should ask the question again.
It is too early to rely on polls. Wait until after both conventions and then let's see what the polls indicate.
Jack: Difficult question to answer......and of course all the answers would be pure speculation. The so-called science of poll-taking is not a science at all but mere necromancy. People are unpredictable by nature, and although you can take a nation's pulse, you can't be sure that the nation hasn't just run up a flight of stairs. As we get closer to the general election, the numbers will have more signigicant meanings.
i know you folks in the media love this guy jack, but we the people who actually pay attention to issues realize that obama is the wrong person for the job. as a democrat i will vote for the republican for the first time ever. obama's resume is too thin, his positions too extreme liberal, his judgement dreadful, and his arrogance is appalling. why the dnc saddled us with this pitiful excuse for a candidate is beyond my understanding unless it was simply because they did not want the obama campaign labelling them as racist.
Cell phones. Pollsters don’t (usually) dial potential voters who only own a cell phone. The demographics for cell phone only voters: People under 30, blacks and hispanics. Guess who they would most likely vote for? I’ll give you a hint — it’s not John McCain.
There is one caveat to this observation: People who don’t have a landline phone don’t usually vote in elections. But don’t tell anyone I said that.
Jack, only today a friend asked me what all this commotion about Obama in Europe was about. As I watch CNN and consult a variety of Blogs on a daily basis I wanted to ask "What? Have you been out of the country?" (Wrong question here:)
My point is most Americans don't watch the news with regularity and fewer read the paper. And political blogging is a passtime reserved for the truly obsessed–like you and me.
These polls are a few days behind the current events and Americans in general are even farther behind the polls. Give it time, they'll go up, provided the mythical miffed military–a creation of the radical right–doesn't swift boat him!
Whoever does all of this polling does not contact cell phone users. The majority of people under 40 are cell phone users and probably don't even have a land line.
I suspect that Obama isn't doing so well in the polls because people perceive him as lacking in substance, someone who makes a good impression but cannot back it up. I also think the media has been overdoing their coverage of him which turns off people like my husband who says he won't vote for Obama because the media are so biased in his favor. (I'm doing my best to talk him out of that line of thinking.) Obama has the disadvantage of being relatively unknown, especially when compared to John McCain, and some people would prefer to stick with the guy they know rather than risk an unknown.
Judging from some of the comments you read in some of these blogs it's evident a lot of people are as confused on the issues as John McCain.
If you surveyed a cross section of Americans on issues and events that have happened or are happening and then do the same with people from other countries and you just might see people from other countries are much more familiar with America then some of it's own citizens.
The same question was asked at the start of the primary season.It is way to early Jack.Talk to me a month before the election.
Thank goodness someone has FINALLY asked this question! The people who will be voting for Obama are the young voters who do not have a land phone. These younger people use cell phones and they are not listed.
I happen to know PERSONALLY of 16 people who will be voting for Obama who use cell phone exclusively. They will never be polled. And I might add, I am home 24/7 and have never received a call and our number is published. I think they are polling the same people all the time. Just wait until the college students get back in school and you will see the enthusiasm.
Thank you for finally giving me a chance to answer this question for the Gallop people!
People especially from the south do not know Obama yet. There are those that don't pay attention to politics either. I also think there is a bit of hesitance on the part of senior citizens who see in black and white. This all effects him in the polls. People know the McCain name.
Eventually when they have the debates Obama will go way up in the polls when people see just how much of a better candidate he is than John McCain.
I am almost surprised you asked this, but it is a very pertinent question. Yes, in this year the Dem should be 30 points ahead of McCain. In 1988, when conditions were far better Dukakis was 20 ahead of GHWB. Obama should be WAY ahead, but among likely voters they are essentially tied and that should be extremely worrisome to Obama fans – startng from a tie, when the smear machine gets going he will be in free fall.
As I have said before many times, people are just not sure about him – they sense there is much more that we don't know, they know he has almost no resume, and many of us are simply unimpressed by his celebrity and have no clue why he was nominated, out of the candidates we had. We just do not GET IT; why him???
Personally, I do not want either of them – for the first time in decades I will not be voting for President.
It's several obvious reasons.
#3. Barr & Nader
#2. Cell phone users not accounted
#1. The Media's inability to cover unbiasly
Dana Bash yesterday said " McCain wanted to go to an oil rig off the
coast of New Orleans" " and they had to scrap that for "various reasons". Talk about with holding information. The trip was sapped because 419,000 gallons of oil was spilled into their coast.
Why isn't the question about the lack of enthusiasm for McCain?
He has been around for .. how many years and with all the knowledge about him he can't break 50%? That has got to worry the GOP.
As for the polls.. Like Reagan at this point in his race, people don't know Obama. My prediction is that once he gets around to introducing himself to the people with his VP, the polls are going to swing dramatically in his favor.
People will finally \completely reject the angry old man that is McCain
How are CNN polls taken?
By Brooks Jackson/CNN
February 18, 1999
"On average, Gallup completes just over 1,000 interviews to represent a nation of more than 270 million. But if it's a truly random sample, it's like stirring soup - so that one spoonful will tell you what the whole pot is like."
I guess it depends on how well the soup gets stirred and what the weight of the ingredients are. So would Obama would be doing much better if the polls were not like a bowl of soup and were based on something real not random guesses. Yes I think he would be much higher in the polls.
St. Augustine, Fl
It's two things, Jack, the color of his skin and his victory over Hillary. The excuse of not knowing him, his flowery words, or lack of experience is nonsense. What president took office for the first time with experience. And hopefully we've learned that if they can't speak well they lack the brains for the job.
In my opinion it's because the same conservative grass roots movement that once had baked cookies and seeds of doubt coming from the Hammer and his wife, are now coming in on at least three fronts: The Neo-cons like the limbaugh project:chaos crowd, the relatively tiny amount of racists out there who haven't spent their time getting worse and more open with their hatred, and, suprisingly, the hypersensative extremists in Hillary's corner, still grasping at the notion that she will one day be crowned queen.
I read somewhere that most elections are won by .2 to 1% winning. Winning by 4%is a landslide. Winning by 6% would be amazing and all states would be blue (or, um, red if you are so inclined). So when polls state that Obama is ahead by 3 or 4%, that's really quite amazing. I predict (hope) that it will be much higher in November. Polls change back and forth daily. It all depends on how you word the question.
The same reason people would rather go to a doctor who has been practicing for years rather than one right out of medical school. People would rather not be the victim of the new guys mistakes.
I think its because their lying to the pollesters. I do not think this is a normal year and I think the polls are all just way off. I think that they are playing with the pollesters and having a great time with it. Have you seen the Q and A on Yahoo you should check it out we having the craziest questions and the answers are just as funny.
Well, Jack, in my 'never-to-be-humble-opinion' its his race. Few people will be honest to recognize their own bias toward a Black man. Sad but true!
The other reason was brought to my attention last night on MSNBC, "Countdown with Keith Olbermann" he mentioned a study done of the mainstream media: CBS, ABC & NBC. The negative stories about Sen. Obama were 72% compared to 23% positive!
And for McCain, 53% were positive & 43% were negative!
As a supporter of Sen. Obama, I have decided to boycott : CBS, ABC AND NBC. I hope that those of us who want fair news about the candidates will also boycott the "big three".
I have also noticed that McCain's new ad IS A LIE, about Sen. Obama "finding time to go to the gym but not visiting the wounded troops"!
The Pentagon memo about this whole thing mentions that the Pentagon was the one who stopped Sen. Obama from visiting the troops! This ad is a LIE but the media gives McCain a pass.
THE TELFON-JOHN STORY IS REALITY.
The American people have become accustomed to the greed, power grabbing, extreme incompetence, and cover ups of our current administration. These seem to be the qualities we deem to be presidential. Sadly, John McCain, standing in front of a sausage house making caustic comments, looks like a president to most Americans.
We have forgotten what American can be with the educated, courageous, dignified leadership.
Well, in a nut shell it comes down to a flip of a coin. Your options are McCain or Obama. None more impressive then the other.
You have Obama with not much history at all and then you have McCain with a lot of history but no substance.
Nothing stands out for either candidate. Obama got more attention with his wacko reverend and Jessie Jackson wanting to cut his privates off of him then what he can muster up on his own. Reality is setting in now and Obama is not much about anything. McCain either ,so now we are left with the lesser of two evils. Not much choice Jack. Not much choice at all........
The answer is simple. The gene pool for intellegence is dwindling.
As of yesterday, he was doing better in the polls. Just depends on the one you choose to follow. That's why I don't think you should ask any more questions about polls.
Does it matter? Wait until after the conventions and VP picks and see if it's still a question that needs to be asked. Pollsters (and the media) should remember back to (and maybe LEARN something from) a few months ago – polls 100 days prior to the end of the primary season weren't even close!
While people may still have their doubts about his actual ability to do the job, and that's healthy I'm sure, that has become exagerated by the level of sensationalism he is painted as using by those who want to keep him from getting elected. Suprise suprise.
He's still the underdog Jack, no matter how much press he gets, and if you need more proof, just look at the fact that not a single news station has asked John McCain the real serious question here...
Dear John... why are you taking credit for a surge that only prolonged the death of soldiers, when clearly the invasion was a mistake to begin with? Isn't that like applauding the Manson family for only getting caught killing Sharon Tate, and nevermind all the other families they destroyed, because their tactics were clever?
The American population is somewhere between 10-25 percent racist. Period.
His followers are like zombies, Jack, and it scares the people who are undecided. We all know the greatest threat to the planet is when the legions of undead arise to reclaim the Earth, so when the Obambies swarm all over everything, fear cower in fear.
Simple. The media wants a horse race, the Republicans want the illusion of a close race, and surprise, the polls show just that. Unfortunately, these polls are conducted by, again big surprise, the media and Republicans! (Gallup is owned by a Republican, Pew research was formed to poll church goers etc.) Jack, I trust these polls as much as I trust GWB when he says "Iraq is the central front in the War on Isl.... Terrorism!"
Because he thinks I am bitter!
Because looking back over the year at our U.S. Senate–and the bills he's supported (like our most recent purge of taxpayors accounts to bail out idiot mortgagees and criminal mortgage companies)–make one think twice before electing a President that will give an overwhelming majority for passage of legislation–which so far hurts more of us than it helps. Thanks.
Because there are still 100 days of polling and politicking to go. Give the ticks and the fleas time for the dog to scratch them. Each candidate's tail...poll numbers will wag up and down during the course of the campaigning, based on slips and slides along the way. I won't take the daily polls that seriously, but will wait for the polls that come on election day.
El Paso, Texas
How many young people are actually get polled? It is very apparent that when given the choice between Obama and McCain that older voters favor McCain and younger voters favor Obama. It seems that most of the people being polled are older Americans. On that note, every day numerous McCain voters are heading to that great voting booth in the sky, while many more Obama voters are turning eighteen.
Obama is not further ahead because the media has become a disgrace. When Obama is getting twice the coverage of McCain, and that coverage is 72% NEGATIVE coverage, while McCain barely gets questioned at all what do you expect? If the media covered McCain with as much scrutiny as they did Obama, the polls wouldn't even be close. Too bad the media has been derelict in their duties time and time again as they let McCain and his surrogates say whatever falsehoods and hypocrisies they want and never get called on them.
There are still too many materialistic Americans, who vote for the party that will protect their nest eggs better with lower taxes. They vote Republican no matter how bad the GOP's policies are and ignore what the last 7 years has done to our great nation.
Apparently there are many people who would prefer to continue regression of the past 7+ years.
Well, lets think about that for a minute, Maybe people got a hold of his economic plan and found out that he plans to raise taxes on everything opnce the Bush tax cuts expire. Small businesses might not appreciate being hit with additional taxes that could leave then with a third of their earning a year and could squander their ability to expand and create new jobs. This sort of idea can only mean an unpleasent future for the lower and lower middle class people like myself. I like my money where it is and would appreciate the option of keeping as much as I can since it isnt much to begin with. Call me crazy, but I prefer to allow people to keep what they worked so hard for and not give it to someone else that didnt work for it. And isnt it proven when taxes are at their lowest, people's financial status increase?
His lowest polls are usually done by Fox and Rasmussen. He usually does better on polls where there is a larger numer of respondents. Where and when polls are taken can really influence the results. Everyone knows that and that's why they are taken with a grain of salt.
No matter how miserable people might get, most are afraid to change. Since Senator Obama is basing his entire campaign on change, he's tacking into a headwind from the get-go.
Take care, Steve
Let's see, Obama gets 28% favorable coverage to 72% unfavorable. You guys in the press (not necessarily YOU Jack) push unsubstantiated talking points like the "gaffe" one that's taken hold recently. Because McCain is dull, he stays out of the limelight and you mis his gaffes and mis-speaks, and geographical errors.
Why don't you tell me?
there is no record for him to work on
because he didnt do anything
and hispolicy for the country and the world sinks
Jack, the same old story. Who are they calling? What age group are they calling? The greed of American people for the oil drilling being "Shouted by McCain". (which he was against about 2 months ago). American's must know it will take years before we see the out come of the so called, "Promise of off shore drilling". Obama has been out of the Country for 10 days. Give him a chance. In a few days the polls will be shouting how Obama is ahead.
Jack, who are they polling? I've never been polled before. I don't trust polls anyway. Why should we believe what a poll says. Come October you will see who's the true leader, especially if Johnny Boy keeps making Gaffes the way he does.
Give him a chance, Jack. First time for everything.
The Clinton supporters have fractured the democratic party. They
really dont care if Obama lose. The democratic party will be damaged
for years to come, because the Obama supporters will understand why he lost. The Clinton supporters have handed McCain a gift that keeps on giving.
Jack, He is doing better; is this breaking news?
I think Michelle is right in talking about the bar always moving up.
No doubt Obama becomes the next president as long as we the first time voters come out in good percentage.
It is waaaay too early for the polls to give us a solid or accurate feel for how we Americans are going to be voting. In spite of the main stream media's attempts to create a "Rock-Political" star, most of us are still skeptical (of both parties and candidates).
Additionally, I think I heard the gallop poll has only accurately predicted 3 winners 100 days before an election (??)
Like you, I am an independent. I think Obama should be ahead, but too many people think that what McCain says, he can do immediately. They don't consider that things have to go through the House and Senate.
Hi Jack, Obama is a fresh ray of hope. After the Dubya debacle and McSame running in Dubyas footsteps I have no idea why the devil himself wouldn't vote for something new. This country needs old ideas like it needed another 4 years of George Bush. But some people in America can't see past their bias and stupidity., Whew, I needed to get that off my chest. Patsy in Nebraska
I am an indepedent and the other four of my family or republicans. Like or dislike Hillary Clinton she was the most qualified of the canidates and had the knowledge and "GONADS" to do the job. We can't stand either of these canidates but we will vote for the person who is most loyal to america and shows no hatred for the white race. The less of evil for these idiots is John McCain.
the pollsters don't call cell-phones.polling hasn't kept up with telecommunications advances.i'm one of the few people i know with a landline telephone and i've never been called by a pollster.who the hell are they polling?
jack, as time goes by obama will do better on polling and the american people will see tha mccain is not offering anything new.
alex santiago, brooklyn ny
Not enough Americans have wakened to the fact that there is no correlation between age and intelligence and in at least 50% of the cases there is no correlation between age, experience or judgement. Half, or more of the people just get older, not more intelligent and not more experienced. Just look around you.
John McCain clearly demonstrates his age, but he does not consistently demonstrate intelligence or experienced judgement. He just "flip- flops" and whines just like Phil Gramm says that the rest of Americans do..
How about asking Wolf and Dobbs to hold McCain to the same level of personal scruitiny that they give Obama?
Remember, Obama is 46 years old. By the time he is 47, he may be a genius with the wisdom of Solomon.
Obama would be leaps and bounds ahead of McCain if people would stop allowing the GOP to capitalize on their fears and insecurities. It’s amazes me how Obama is being painted as “not one of us” when he just finished paying off school loans, grew up with an element of dysfunction, struggled throughout his teenage years with his identify, and worked his way up from the bottom. Sounds like must Americans to me! Maybe the Germans and French see him for the leader he truly is while some Americans embrace the politics of divisiveness.
It is very disturbing to me why Obama isn't doing better in the polls. But, polls this early can be very misleading. Considering what a monumental screw-up the republicans have made for the country, I'm amazed how many die hard morons there are around this country. Are they stupid, or just stupid!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The people have become lazy when it comes to information regarding a presidential candidate. They take what is given to them it that thirty second attack ad and go with it. If they say it on TV it must be true. Many people are still in the dark when it comes to what Obama wants for our country and what he plans to do for our country. As soon as we in America take the cue from the "liberal global view" and praise Obama for being the only hope this country has the polls will be over and he will be president...if not I am moving to Canada.
He isn't doing better right now because a lot of people in this country don't vote based on logic and good sense; they vote based on religion and the "issues" religious extremism engenders. And those same people believe, mistakenly, that Sen. Obama is a Muslim, and Sen. McCain was at the Last Supper. Newsflash America: Sen. Obama didn't raise the price of gas and he wasn't shooting hoops at his local gym.
It is very simple. America does not appear to be ready for a Black President. I still think that if he brought out his white grandmother she would help a lot. He needs to remind people that he is white too.
People are just starting to learn more about Obama. But what do we know about McCain?
Talk about judgment. let’s not forget about McCain's judgment and his involvement with Charles Keating in the Saving & Loan collapses of the 1980’s. It seems that every time Phil Gramm and John McCain work together banks fail. I believe McCain when he says he knows very little about the economy.
Simply put, place blame on the calendar. It's July and not September or October.
The best thing that has happened to Obama is the New Hampshire primary. That was the game changer. If Obama is higher in the polls right now he will lose in November, the polls are as old as McCain himself and cannot be relied upon in modern decision making. The surprise is that most people being polled are the land phone -stay at home citizens and a traditional McCain turf, the question is WHY IS McCAIN NOT LEADING BY A WIDER MARGIN? He is better known and better loved and looks more like "US" than Obama, more "patriotic" and less risky to vote for as president.
Wasn't that the same question asked throughout the Democratic Promaries??
When the constant bashing of the McCain campaign wears out the polls will move.
Media coverage is favoring John McCain by not exposing his missteps and misspeaks. And, by not calling John McCain on the outright lies that he is telling everyone and every reporter, about his opponent, Barack Obama.
Because there is an overwhelming undercurrent of 'ism's in the US – racism, sexism and ageism.
My prediction is that neither Obama, McCain or Clinton will take the oath of office next January.
I guess they're still licking their wounds. If the shoe was on the other foot I think Hillary would be suspecting more support than she has given senator Obama so far.
Call it what it is bigotry, most of the elderly and non-college educated white generations of this country would rather live under the failed policies of John, McBush, McCain part 3 instead of helping to elect a black man to the Presidency... By the way I am a white man.
C.I., New York
America is still a smoldering outhouse of racism.
It is a bit suprising due to the fact that McCain is so weak. It is probably a combination of uncertainity and his skin color. I think by the time Novemebr rolls around, people will gain the confidence that Obama is best qualified and they will also overcome any misguided and ignorant beliefs that skin color has something to do with merit.
Laguna Niguel, CA
Given the disapproval rating that the administration has, a person would assume that the Democratic canidate WOULD have a rating in the 60+% area. And I personaly believe that if Senator Obama were a white man his ratings whould be in that 60+% range. I am ashamed to say that I feel that to many in the United States race IS an issue that clouds their judgement. Personaly< I learned my lesson lying in a rice paddy with a black man on one side and a hispanic on the other side. Middle class whites were no where to be seen.....
McCain is the better candidate?
Jack, a study was released yesterday showing that despite conventional wisdom suggesting the media is praising Obama, negative coverage of his campaign dwarfs any scrutiny of McCain's . The media wants a horse race, and is bending its campaign coverage in order to keep it close. We can all see it; why can't you guys?
Because he is not yet picked Hillary Clinton as his running mate. We are still waiting. The polls don't ask about Hillary......they really should.
don't believe the polls. just look at Obama's rallies, they're packed. his convention speech is being held in a football stadium. Obama supporters, there are more of us then them. be sure you turn out to vote in November and hopefully we'll get back on the right track.
Jack, America has heard song and dance stories before and I am not sure Americans believe it at this point. Eight years of George W. Bush has made us a cynical bunch.
I don't think he is doing better in the in the polls for four reasons:
1)Fear. People are afraid because he is new and black and non political junkies don't know him. 2) McCain is still coasting on his old Maverick image. That McCain is no more. 3)The media spends more time overlooking and /or defending his flip flops and gaffs than reporting them! He is only held accountable when it's unavoidable!
4)Current polling methods are inadequate for dealing with this historical race!
It's very simple Jack. Contrary to General Patton's assertion that Americans like a winner, the verifiable, object truth confirms that Americans actually like underdogs. Barack Obama is a winner...he's young, vivacious, and he can shoot the basketball from downtown–a true Dream Teamer. John McCain, on the other hand, is a loser...he's old, stodgy, and 99 percent scar tissue. Johnny-Mac is the 1962 New York Mets. Just wait, now that John McCain has a new bandaid, expect to see his poll numbers go through the roof.
After such a long primary battle, we are all weary from all the politics. After Labor Day americans will be engaged at picking the next president. All will be involved, not just us political junkies and bloggers. That is when the polls will change drastically. The debates and the coverage will show to all how out of touch McCain is and show Obama as the calm, thoughtful, smart man that he is. The race will not even be close.
That is if McCain even makes it to Labor Day without blowing up.
Why isn't McCain? The same reason not everyone is happy with the choice of candidates. Not all can come to the realization of a black president and most are afraid of the unknown if he becomes the next president. Nothing will change. Washington will still be run as it has always been run. Crooked
I forgot to mention above one more reason: Obama's newness is quickly wearing off, and people are getting absolutely sick of seeing him every time they turn their TVs on. The relentless worshipful coverage of him that began a year and a half ago has overdone it, and that will be a part of his undoing.
The trip to Europe by someone acting as if they are already President was just too much and people do not like it. If Denver is nothing but a Hollywood style coronation, that will be the final straw, and you should think carefully about what I am saying.
Jack, A very simple answer. He's a black man and white people are apprehensive about voting for a person of color. This just shows that even though he is the party nominee we are not yet ready as a nation to let go of the race card. Conservitives can talk all they want about their candidate and his "experience". If you can't see the writing on the wall, you have to be either an idiot, a racist or rich to not vote for Obama.
maybe it is because a significant number of probable voters think he is a joke and would be a lousy president. that super thin resume of his says voting for him would be like hiring the mail clerk to be the ceo of a major corporation. why on earth would anyone vote for him?
Obama's numbers will increase once those bitter, cry-baby Hillary supporter build a bridge and get over it. This nonsense of threatening to vote for McCain is just ridiculous. When they finally come to their senses and realize McSame is the complete antithesis of their beloved, heavenly, almighty goddess, Obama will do much better in the polls.
It's his race. People will cite many other reasons, but his race is lurking behind the sham; and it sneaks out given enough conversation with these people. We only hoped that ll of the old racists were dead. They're still out there, under their rocks.
I thought George Bush and Dick Cheney were arrogant, next to Obama I now find them quite quaint. Given the choice between McCain and Obama I'll take the straight talking war hero over the rock star in a heartbeat.
While I would be the last person to agree with Novack, it is true.There is the percentage of white America who would not vote for anyone black even if it would put more green in their pockets.
Because Fox News keeps making polls showing McCain winning
No one knows anything about this guy, and with very little experience he has a tough road ahead of him. He is fortunate the republicans are struggling with their canidate also.
The answer is very simple: black and white. Obama has a gift and he is not putting it to good use. Being a bi-racial person provides him with a weapon that cannot be neutralized. He represents the good of both sides. He needs to find a way to get the "white side" of his family engaged. Can you imagine his folks in Kansas City hitting the trail with him? What a sight... I can almost guarantee a 3% jump in the poll after a week. Based on conversation with many people, some of the older white voters are waiting for that moment, Obama needs to deliver.
First off, Gallup is a Republican dominated company. It gives generously to Republican candidates. USA Today is a conservative corporation.
Secondly, Robert Novak is a Republican hack. Nothing he says has any relation to actual facts.
So, the examples you've given to pose your question are null and void.
Obama isn't doing well in the polls because he wants to give amnesty to 12 to 20 million illegal aliens. He also wants everyone to learn Spanish, how about English being the official language, and letting the immigrants learn English.
Carl in Illinois
Racism, racism, racism!!!
Well, nobody's "polled" me, a southern middle aged white woman, and I think Obama is great! He's a badly needed tonic for an ailing, dispirited country that has been forced to suffer too long under our current pathetic, self serving leadership. Do we want change? You bet!
Me and all those other Unknown Obama Supporters will be first in line come time to vote.
He sounds serious about wanting to make changes. That always makes the complacent uncomfortable.
I attribute it to how early it is in the year we still are. Thus far the candidates have been talking about each other with no true comparison of their points. Once the classic network debates begin the number of undecided voters will plummet. From what I've seen so far, Obama will overuse verbal crutches like "uhhh" and "ehhh". McCain will be caught off-guard, get visibly frustrated, or misspeak to the point where his campaign will be backtracking away from his own statements. Obama will come across as more clever and energetic. McCain will appear likable but intellectually shaky. When the results are finally known on November 4th, I'll either be relieved and vindicated for my faith in my fellow Americans or be sitting in shameful disbelief at them.
This country is not ready for a black president. Guess this isn't politically correct to say but I think it's true. Just wait until the Obama supporters get into that private, concealed voting booth.
I'd like to see a poll of first time voters and see just how far ahead in the polls he would be then. The fact is, these polls just don't reach young and/or first time voters like me, who from what I've seen, are heavily in favor of Obama. In addition, we don't have land lines, and that makes for results that leave out a large portion of what's supposed to be a "diverse" polling pool.
A lot of it has to do with the VP selection- it's too bad so many Hillary supporters would rather fall behind a mysoginist white male than vote for Obama if he doesn't pick Hill.
It's time to grow up and actually start voting in our best interests. That means you, angry Hillary supporters.
Jack, Why is it so difficult for Americans to be honest. The true reason Obama isn't doing better in the polls is because of race. We (our country) have come a long way, but the United States still has a significant racial bias. The truth is the truth.
Not all people are political junkies like most of us who watch you Jack. Obama is a relative unknown to many people and McCain has literally been around forever. Many of those people that know McCain think he is the McCain of 2000. Once they start paying attention, they will soon realize the 2008 version of McCain has nothing in common with the 2000 version. The tide should start turning after the conventions.
Polls, smolls! The time when polls give any inkling of how things will go on Election day are after both candidates give their convention sppeches. Those "polls" said Barack was going to beat Hillary by 10 points in the New Hampshire Democratic primary.
Jack I thank God that it din't happen but we could have had Quale and Bush 43 running this country, based on the fact they fit the criteria, being white and male.This is the 21st century folks its ok to change.
The American people have been prisoners of the worst Administration in our history – people are nervous and many are still looking for that defining moment in either campaign that will seal their vote – a lot of us probably suffer from Hearst Syndrome and think "Better the Devil you know" while others are desperate for change – the polls right now are meaningless except for the harm they do – I'm only interested in the Nov. outcome so I'll know whether to hunker down for four more years or open up the windows and get ready for the most interesting Administration in our history.
the votes do not want the media to know how they feel. polls have become a joke to the public because they want to pick the president not the media.
Jack, I think he is doing very well in the polls. we simply expect too much of Obama right now. The margin isn't big now with Mccain, simply because not enough people are interested in the polls. When they do, he will be doing better. which is soon. Mccain will always trail behind because of his uneccessary negative attack ads on Obama instead of focusing on the economy. Naples, Florida
I can think of six reasons.
He's black, and we still have a race problem.
The PUMAs are still pouting.
Many voters aren't paying attention yet.
The conservative smear machine is effective, if inaccurate.
Many people have completely given up on all politicians.
Recall the Literary Review's poll of 1936 that predicted Alf Landon's win? (I'm not suggesting you personally recall it–but you've heard of it, right?) Maybe the pollsters have slipped behind the technological curve.
Well Jack I'd say the reason is pretty much black and white if your an honest observer.
It seems America is reluctant to give up prejudices and bigotry although they have come a long way on the race issue you seem to be light years away from reconciliation.
Take the homosexual issue and the bigotry shown people over nothing more than their sexual preferences. All modern societies have long recongnized these people are nothing more or nothing less than ordinary human beings with the right to live their lives in dignity with the same rights and privileges as anyone else.
The fact is America's children, fifty years from now, will look at the struggles of the gays the same way we all look at the struggles of the African Americans today. They just won't believe what was happening in 2008 in America!
Simple, Jack. He hasn't taken advantage of the failings of Bush and his administration because he is not well known. Obama's trip overseas was an attempt to prove tro the people he is capable of leading our nation around the world; now, look for him to go around our country in the hope he will be better known, and trhat voters will have confidence he will be able to lead in affairs at home (such as the economy) in adition to foregn affairs.
Unlikely voters came out to vote in the primaries, but the pollsters don't' seem to include them in the polls. They were wrong then and may be wrong now.
The speculation of racism being the cause of Obama's failure to hit the 50% mark is insulting...besides skin tone, Obama has amazingly little in common with mainstream Black America, but no one sees Black America's overwhelming support of him as racist, only the lack of support from some of White America as racist....the REAL reason is his "I've already won" attitude, his meager resume, and his considerable number of polarizing companions and mentors.
Jack his base does not have House Phones to call he is doing good in these poll even with his base not being represented Properly Everyone KNows only Old people have house Phones YOung People and Black people Use cell Phones as there House Phones so until they start calling cell phones in there poll it will never fully show the state of the Race.
Jack, I suspect that many Americans aren't all that ready for change despite the disastrous record of the current Bush administration.They are prone to being misled by the feeble, faulty logic that Republicans can bring against an opponent. The specious arguments they present based on such things as his religion, his perceived lack of experience, his liberal views on social and economic matters, etc. all keep McCain from falling through the floor. I believe Robert Novak, and others are right in thinking there exists a chance that McCain can stumble into the presidency because four more years of Bush style governance that he represents, is preferred by the voters than taking a chance with new leadership.
Trust, the answer is trust.
Quite a few folks are having a hard time trusting Mr. Obama. One merely needs to look at the last time we elected a relatively inexperienced "Uniter" who also promised to fix our woes in 2000.
Why isn’t Barack Obama doing better in the polls?
Good question. No one I know has been polled. I haven't been polled. I live in a RED county here in CA you would think that someone like me would be polled, right?
So who is being polled? What type of questions are being asked of those lucky enough to be polled? Are they leading questions like "would you be willing to vote for a man who went to a radical church for 20 years or a war hero?" or simple questions like "Who are you going to vote for Obama or McCain?"
If I were a betting gal I'd say that leading questions are being asked of Republicans in RED counties and the rest of us are shaking our heads wondering why Obama doesn't have a commanding lead.
Jack, as time passes, people are learning more and more about him. Many like and many dislike what they see in him. To put it mildly, people have not had many opportunities to consider a Black American for President. It will have to grow on them in time. By November, even McCain may be endorsing Obama. Have you noticed how much more he speaks of Obama here of late? Everything is possible.
A better question might be, "Why is McCain doing as well as he is?" Obama is 10 points behind where he should be and McCain is 10 ahead. When the cellphone only folks get counted we'll see the real deal. Also, where ARE the Clintons?
No one I know has been polled. However, part of the problem may be people still don't know what Obama stands for. JibJab stated it succinctly when it showed him talking about "change, change, change." How? What changes? So far he's given few specifics and still talks in generalties and talks about America needs "change." Change scares a lot of folks. Some will vote for the candidate (McCain) they think they know than the candidate (Obama) they don't know. Plus, it doesn't help that many in the media are championing Obama, fawning over him, and interpreting his words rather than let Obama's words stand on their own merit. Few people trust the unknown, but fewer trust the press.
Maybe because there are still so many misinformed people (I didn't want to say 'stupid' but you get my drift) who believe all the same fear-mongering and rumor mills that were around when this country amazingly re-elected Bush in 2004. I'm seriously worried that this country might elect a doddering old ghost of the past 8 years. Wish they would poll our house! WAKE UP PEOPLE!
Beats me Jack. i got a feeling they keep asking the same people over and over again.Either that or Karl Rove has Gallop by the you no whats!!!!!
Everyone I know in what's left of the middle class is sick and tired of elitist Washington insider politics and feels abandoned and helpless. Monster disapproval ratings of the Executive Branch and worse ratings for Congress should more than answer your question about polls. Our government is broken and the citizenry is discouraged, disheartened, and growing more angry by the day. Obama? McCain? Who cares? Either way; nothing will "change".
I do believe it is two things (1) there are still a lot of white voters who will not vote for someone of mixed race and (2) Hillary and Bill have been very noticeably missing from support for Barack, still hoping PUMA will pull off a switch at the convention. The democrats will shoot themselves in the foot every time they are the likely winners. We will not only get into more wars but we will fall from power in more ways than one and the middle class will be gone.
1. Who is home to answer land lines? were working and worried;
Remember Dewey; Pollsters called by telephone and most polled were for Dewey. Forgot that in 1948, most rich people (Republicans) had phones and the working person did not.
2. McCains sound bites(sic) on Obama ankle are effective;
3. Public just does not follow the political news;
4. Working people hate NAFTA. They do not even know that McCain is for NAFTA as it is and Obama wants it fixed.
They really think Obama will raise their taxes, when in fact it is true only if you make more than $250,000.
Do you think they will ever know McCain flipped on raising SSI taxes today? and flipped on the 16 months?
5. Bad questions; They should use policy Q: If X wants Nafta and Y does not; who do you vote for? etc.
Are you kidding me Jack? Do you believe these polls?
The fact is that the media and the pollsters are out to make the election looks close so that the campaigns will contiue to pour money into advertisements.
Because it's the summer and nobody is paying attention.
because obama is the same as mccain, only he doesn't have as many senior moments
Polls are a joke. Far too few people are questioned to get an accurate sample. Depending on the questions asked, and who is called someone can make a Poll say that Jack is in the lead to be President. Wait, with the choices we have now thats not such a bad idea.
To people Like Christopher Smith I say... Not on your life, but you certainly might be.
I think people have finally figured out that Obama would make a horrible president. He is aroggant, can't take joke, and takes himeself too seriously.
Karl wrote: “Why is McCain doing as well as he is?”
Are you kidding me? Is that statement supposed to be some kind of joke? With Iraq, the economy, job loss, low international prestige and possible the worst president in the 20th century (maybe longer) you are wondering why McCain isn't doing well? McCain the Republican candidate, who is trying to follow a disastrous Republican administration? There is a perfect political storm for the democrats right now. How is McCain even remotely in the race?
On the Real Clear Politics site, if you look at the last 45 national polls taken from May 1 to the present, McCain has won 2, there are two ties and Obama has won 42 of the match-ups. That's quite an impressive record. Where did this last USA/Gallop poll come from? Did they take it in Texas or Arizona?
Jack, I hate to admit it but Novak is right. It's really not hard to see. The elephant in the room is the " older white vote ." The one poll that is definitely NOT beliveable is the one that says 70 % of America is ready for a black president. It's also a subject the media has tip toed around. People use the " I don't know enough about him excuse" even though he has arguably been vetted by the media more then any other candidate. That and experience are used as reasons not to support Obama to keep from being branded racist.
Besides the generation gap, which leaves out young voters who ONLY have cell phones, the other issue is it's a national poll. We don't elect people based on national popularity. You have to poll people by state and then add up the electoral college numbers. It's the only way that it can really work.
As far as 'likely' voters, that can't count either because as we know the voters who are motivated and passionate are Obama voters. The definition of a likely voter is about to change.
the polls are a joke, these are the dog days of summer nobody cares, anybody with any sense are on a relaxing trip.. but people like me can't afford to do that. so iam laying low at home trying to figure out how to pay for the air condishing.
Because he's black. Both candidates have albatrosses around their necks this year; one is old and "wooden" and the other too young and black. The polls will change dramatically at the debates. Not only will people see the JFK / Nixon- esque contrast between them but Obama will run circles around him in an arena that doesn't permit stammering, dead-air filled answers.
I was polled weeks ago – it took 30 mins and I got the call right around 6pm. My kids wanted to eat dinner and my suspicious husband wanted to know if we were being charge for the call, would they be calling back, if we were going to be on some mailing list and reminded me not to give any personal data. Needless to say if your childless, suspicious husbandless, have a landline phone and eat early – it's easier to get polled.
Jack; the primary reason is that a good bit of his base is often excluded from polling, So if the poll reflects the attitudes of those polled then he is not doing bad, add in his loyal base, he is doing fairly well.
Race – the unspeakable factor
Maybe it is because he has not qualifications?
Let's see a new gen-exer, black man who is wanted to become president....gee I have no idea.
Why is McCain not doing better against this 'nobody' with all his experience and POW fame ?
Jack I am sorry to say that when it comes right down to it many americans have trouble supporting a black man, regardless of the hope and inspiration he exudes.
I'm a big time Obama supporter but I've never been polled.
No one I know of have ever been polled.
How do these polls take place?
Because he is a pop-star and not a real contender based on his total lack of credentials. For example: what work did he do to garner almost all of the African American votes? Hillary Clinton won all of the electoral states and this would have clinched the nomination from McCain. If the Dems lose it will be because of the DNC's stupidity and people like you, Jack, who rigged the reporting in his favor and ignored and criticized Hillary's accomplishments.
I think there are several factors: he is young; although he has been in the public eye since the 2004 convention, he is somewhat inexperienced; and, yes, the racial thing.
I would hope we were past this a long time ago but less than 10 years ago I was visiting a friend in Baton Rouge. As we drove by the local country club, my friend (an avid golf fanatic) told me I would never be able to get in there. Why? I thought. I'm not black, my skin is a little dark but not to the point someone would think I was Hispanic, so what was the problem?
Your last name, my friend told me. It is clearly Italian. My point? If a successful professional could not get into a country club in the capital city of Louisiana less than 10 years ago because I am Italian, how much resistance can you expect from some people to vote a black man into the most powerful position in the world? Hopefully, not everyone thinks that way but there are many who do.
We have a tired Senator and some guy no one has heard of until recently running for President. Neither candidate is very strong. Contrary to what the media will have you believe, many people aren't in love with Obama and McCain hasn't been very inspiring either. I think the average voter is looking for which candidate has more substance, and neither one has shown us much.
Well, Jack, It all depends on who you poll. Did it include likely voters who have only a cell phone? Many young people use only that and you know who they prefer by a large margin. And what's up with the disparity between registered voters and likely voters. Remember last weeks question " who is the riskier candidate?" Why not ask " what would be the riskier choice – change or status-quo. People are ready to accept risk for change. As Lou Dobbs knows all too well- you don't get the "right" answers if you don't ask the "right" questions. Any he is extremely crafty with his questions. I love it when he overwhelming gets the answer he's not looking for.
Jack, I know you don't like Hillary Clinton, and I really don't care whether you do or not, but the fact is Obama would have double the points if he had Hillary on the ticket.
Sarah, Indiana - You sound like one of those disinfected HRC supporters/Puma's - Get over it! Barack will win.
Go Barak Go!!
A Big Barack Obama Supporter
I absolutely can't wait till the debates. Obama will slaughter McCain on the issues. Now McCain, Iraq and the White House are OPEN to Obama's 16 month time line.
Well obviously one or the other is above 50%, the 10% to 15% who claim to be undecided which god only knows how anybody at this point could be undecided considering we have a choice between change or Mcsame and once you add the percents up and add a few undecided votes it all adds up to a 100. that is ig 2+2 still equal 4.
Is race a factor, perhaps. Another growing factor is the sound-byte trash job the Republicans now have under way. It's too bad the networks can't ban outright lies from the airwaves.
Since McCain endorses these attacks, I think we now know all we need to about him.
Because he just don't cut it.
Older white voters,and some not so old.....60% of them would like this country to remain racist.
The older white voter would rather eat dog food before they would vote for Obama.
However, they will be eating dog food and loving it if Mcain is voted in as their President.
Not you, Jack, but most talking heads in the media maximize Obama's errors and minimize the blatant flagrant LIES of Bush III.
It gets really disgusting on this end of the tv sometimes. You all just don't play McWarmongers blunders over and over and over and over and over.
But if someone Obama knew as a kid makes a mistake, it's laid at Obama's feet and he has to bear the consequences over and over and over and over.
It's getting ugly on this side of the tv.
I am not sure who they are polling Jack. I have never received a call nor has anyone I know. I guess it's the same 13% of folks who believe the country is headed in the right direction.
\He needs to unite the Democratic Party and Put Hillary on the Ticket.
People are divided.
Life is tough enough. Let's at least make this Presidential election easy.
There is a percentage of Americans who would rather watch the country go down in flames than vote for an African American candidate. Prejudice and ignorance are powerfull.
It is fairly obvious~These polls are outliars. And the folks who should be polled, aren't because they have cellphones. Pollsters do averages and they are systematically bad at math; if you are called by one, but you happen to not be home, they look at your zip code and decide what the demographic is in the zip code, and decide for themselves how you would have voted in their polling, based on their sampling.
Elections are more about how a candidates relates to voters than about policies and solving big problems. If in one hand many people are excited about Obama's message there are many others who just look for the safe heaven of a world without NAFTA and outsourcing, where jobs are safe and life is monotonous. McCain is a familiar figure to whom many voters can easily relate while Obama represents a culture and a way of thinking that for many others remain unknown if not a source of concern. Not to mention that race relations, in so many levels, remains a difficult topic for a large part of the country, marred by old resentment and cultural differences on all sides. Considering all this I believe Obama is doing great in the polls.
The real question is how reliable the polls can be: I would not be surprised if many people just gave the "right" answer to be politically correct rather than because the candidate convinced them of his trustworthiness.
To Sarah in Indiana:
Why is it that often when a Black Man is intelligent, confident and articulate - he is is called "arrogant" ?
I will tell you who is arrogant –Hillary Clinton stating on two different occasions in December that it will all be over by February 5th, and she will be the Democratic nominee.
Also, there are many Republicans and the others who are actually annoyed when Obama draws a huge crowd - it is not his fault that thousands of people show up to hear him speak. Plus, it doesn't mean that they will vote for him. The Republicans need to stop being so recentful and juvenile and stick to the issues-at-hand.
Easy answer, The only ones the pollsters can reach by phone, the the old curmudgeons like you. BO's main support are the young cell phone users.
because in this America where there's a generational division, it's hard for many old folks to change their ways and vote for someone that doesn't look like them. We just hope the youth will run to the polls come election day because this time, there is so much at stake.
Obama is doing just fine in the polls at this point in the election. The polls could be very well not indicative of what will happen in november as pollsters don't call cell phones and some voters may not openly admit they support the black guy.
Ignorance. For some reason, many Americans seem to celebrate being clueless. Anyone objectively assessing Obama and McCain has to conclude that Obama is the better choice. By any measurement of ability and intellect, Obama wins. The problem is racism, covert and overt, is very much a part of the picture. Unfortunately, the media treats racism like an etiquette problem, not the deadly and horrible disease it really is. Some comments here are prime examples. One persons says Obama needs to identify more as a biracial person and show off his white relatives. I am sure that person does not realize that the suggestion itself is racist. We have a long way to go Jack but, you know what, I think for the most part we will get there in November. The majority of Americans will vote self interest before race. Obama will win. Poll or no poll.
I'm also one of those 'disinfected HRC supporters' We are a large enough group to prevent Obama from winning. McCain will win!!!!
It's simple really,
I don't trust the polls. No one has ever called me and I live in one of those so called "swing states."
obama wil not win. hillary controls the older women and white working class that cling to their guns and religon.
How much better does an unknown have to do? He's doing fine. That question should go to McCain. He's been around since dirt.
I for one, am not so hot for a wannabe a "President of the world".
I'm not so impressed with his "super star" performance in Berlin.
Was he trying to get German to vote for him? Sure, he makes good speeches everywhere he goes. But where is his credentials or what kind of resume he has ?
Obama is rather a political anomaly at this stage of the campaign process it seems. He is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. McCain nearly helped Obama on the plane for his whirlwind tour of several European cities and Iraq, yet while Obama was overseas all McCain and the media did was criticize Obama for going. And Obama's apparent zeal for approval seems to be hurting him as well. He should really just stick to one definite answer on each issue instead of swaying about. It is for this reason he appears to those voters as an anomaly, don't know what to make of him yet.
I don't have a clue, all I know is I have never been called to ask who I'm voting for. It would be interesting to see just who these polling agencies are calling. I don't take a lot of stock in these silly polls, they are nothing more than a snap shot in time and mean nothing. We will know in November who will be our next President. What is sad is even though I support Senator Obama, he most likely will not win. Why, because people in this country believe what they read in on the internet, they do not care about how factual the information is, critical thinking has gone by the wayside in this country.
Lets call it for what it is. The fact that the MSM keeps dancing around is that many, not the majority, but many white folks have a hard time wrapping their head around the idea of calling a person of color "Mr. President". If Obama was a WASP he would be ahead by at least 20 points. It does not matter how well Obama does, some white folks just won't vote for him.
People are waiting to really say what they think. None of these polls in the last 10 years have shown landslide proportions in these elections. It is always seen as "close". I don't think it will be that way this time though. But everyone is cynical on what the Republicans will try to pull this time to win in this anti_Bush climate.
It remains to be mentioned that newspaper and news outlet polls hardly count when it comes to monitoring and reporting actual political opinions. The only people who vote in such polls are those who spend 20 hours a day at their computers or jump at the chance for some random person from MSNBC to call them on the phone. We will have to wait until November for American's true feelings to come to pass.
Between now and November, you'll get an answer to your question because the GOP, and most other racists groups and individuals will come out in force to prevent a talented, well-intentioned, educated, presidential material black candidate from becoming president, and will do so by any means necessary! This is still America Jack and you will learn so much and just how far America hasn't come between now and November...and by the way, I'm an Obama supporter.
Oops, I misspelled a word!!! May I please resubmit?
It’s very simple Jack. Contrary to General Patton’s assertion that Americans like a winner, the verifiable, objective truth confirms that Americans actually like underdogs. Barack Obama is a winner…he’s young, vivacious, and he can shoot the basketball from downtown–a true Dream Teamer. John McCain, on the other hand, is a loser…he’s old, stodgy, and 99 percent scar tissue. Johnny-Mac is the 1962 New York Mets. Just wait, now that John McCain has a new bandaid, expect to see his poll numbers go through the roof.
He needs to announce Hillary as his running mate. Taht would raise him 10 pts. automatically.
You're talking about polls of voters who elected, not once, but twice, an arrogant, ignorant man who has nearly destroyed the country - because they thought he'd be a good guy to have a beer with. Translation: many voters are incredibly stupid and can't see the forest for the trees.
All for Obama: says it perfectly. The thing that irks the woope out of me is the media or the talking heads asking, "why can't Barrack ahead of the polls?, or in the case with Hillary, why can't Barrack win Ohio, PA or Florida? The answers are obvious. People are rather lost the house or pay higher gas prices than voting for Barrack because of who he is. It's sad.
Pretty simple. Too many people don't feel the same way his fans do. He has NO idea how to reach the voters he isn't getting, and frankly, he isn't trying.
If Obama was a white man with as much charisma and such dynamic ability, he would practically already be elected. Its the right climate for a racist country to finally elect an African American President.
I get sick of being told if I don't vote for Obama I am racist. It may be because I have read up on him and his voting record. Could it just be I don't agree with him. Nothing will never change in this country. I vote for the one that I think will be a good leader and personally I have been discouraged about all our choices.
Hi Jack! I am worried about those who tell the pollster, race would not influence their choosing, and who would then realize that they are still frightened of the thought of a black president. "Honesty...is such a lonely word..."
Jack, maybe you forgot about all of us Clinton voters...ya know 50% of us voted for her. Some of us are still undecided. We will see....We will see.
Obama is not roaring ahead in the polls because he is playing defensive ball. He needs to challenge McCain to a debate; and blow him off the field. Let the "undecideds" see what it is like to have a real man in the White House.
Voting for Barack Obama will be a first opportunity for all Americans, so like a strange intersection named Barack Obama Blvd. with a traffic light stuck on yellow(you must proceed with caution!!!!
Its easy Jack, The american people see the way you and the rest of the left wing 'so called' media are trying to put Obama in office even before the elections. You need to check out your own CNN polls that state 60% of americans know you and the whole main stream media types are trying to shape the election in Obama's favor. When McCain is limping into the white house next year you and your lefty buddies will be to blame. I can't wait!!
Jack,Obama is going to be all right.There has been no stumble,no broken bones.Don't shoot him yet.Send him a contribution.
Thats easy its hard to get ahead when America is use to old politics Obama is bringing something new to the table and the people in this country just can't see past what they've been taught just like they say you can't teach a old dog new tricks and thats the biggest problem with this country get it together people or we'll be in real trouble next time
Because some people won't vote for a black man no matter how wonderful he is. These are the same people that closed their eyes and put Bush into office two times.
Jack it's obvious. The polls are wrong. McCain and Bush could not fill a stadium in his own state of Arizona to hold a rally. How can someone who runs such a terrible campaign be so close to Obama. The only reason the polls might be close is that we are in for another stolen election.
The reason Barak Obama isn't doing better in the polls is the simple fact that the initial hype has worn off and people are looking closer at his actual positions on issues and finding that the promised change is nonexistent.
Hillary voters are not going to vote for Obama unless she is on the ticket. He will loose without her. The people who voted for Hillary remember the good times of her husbands administration and had high hopes of those times returning. Obama and McCain are just more of the same of what we have had for the last 7 years. A president who just doesn't know what he is doing!!!!! Our current economic situation is clear evidence of that.
I hate to say it, but I think that there is still fear on the part of white voters of electing a black person to be president. I hope I am wrong and the electorate will make a decision on the basis of who offers the best promise for the future of our nation and our grandchildren.
Obama is a young, energetic and inspirational candidate who will, I am positive, will go on to win the American Presidency by a landslide. The real campaign has just begun. If MacCain wins, it will be more of a reflection on how an average American brain works, rather than a reflection on Obama.
As more and more people come to know Senator Obama, he can only get more and more popular. Is it any wonder as to why Bush won two terms? One was bad enough, two is a catastrophe. Republican won in 2004 but instilling fear in the minds of voters about the disastrous consequences of changing the government in the middle of a war that is phoney, manipulated and deceptive.
A possible reason is America's obsession with two political parties – no matter what happens, it is always a choice between Republicans and Democrats. This dilutes the issues and encourages less than principled discussions. I am afraid that America is soon going to trail a large number of countries when it comes to the maturity of its political climate.
Just an opinion, of course.
Maybe these polls are being taken along the back roads of the appalacian trail.
The answer is simple: it is becuase he is a ni..... nice guy. We need to wake up and realize that the folks in Washington – both Democrats and Republicans – have created or allowed all the issues we have to arise.
We need to wipe the slate clean and get some fresh approaches.
From a middled aged white gut
the country is still racially devided inspite of the termoil we are dealing with economically. we would rather to vote for more of the same due to race. we need a reality check if we think Mcain will be any better than Bush.
The question should be why is Obama doing as well as he is?
Lets face it, America has just begun its reality tv, big brother phase- Obama is sparking an interest in people that otherwise have not paid attention to politics! He is great on TV! I wouldn't vote him off the island. Of course, a vote is a vote, but isnt experience a pre-requisite for any job. Unless Obama finds a way to woo Mrs. Clinton, McCain can win the General Election. Either way it will be another close election.
Well Jack, it goes to show that the same fools who voted for Bush twice still don't know why they did it. Granted John Kerry was and still is a poor candidate, but he was the lesser of two evils, that is a well documented fact now, just look at bushs approval rating. And what as happened over the last 7 years. And of course there are still closet racists all around this country as well.
If more than half of the country votes for McCain... I may have to find another place to live, A place where people think a little more independently, without party affiliations. Canada sounds like a nice place to live, do they have politics there?? hmmm....
Barack Obama isn't doing better in the polls despite the fact that he has much more momentum and attention to his campaign than McCain because people simply don't trust him. I have been a liberal democrat my whole life. as my family is and not one of us is sure about Obama. I was raised to believe "actions speak louder than words" and that is all we know of Senator Obama....words. John McCain keeps digging himself into deeper ditches with his association with Bush and his move farther and farther from the center to the right, but still he has years and years of action behind him that those of us 30 and over remember. He has a history of acting within what he believes to be right, even when it is unpopular with his party. Obama has no such record. He has no record, period. I fear Obama is a figurehead, and isn't that what we just had 8 years of? Alexis in Santa Monica
We're not paying attention! Remember us, Americans? We believe ardently that quote "politics sucks." Let us get our suntans and scrape together pennies for gas to travel. Not to worry. We're still here and we will be paying CLOSE attention during the conventions and after. We make be flakes but we know when to tune in and care!
Obama isn't doing better because of the prejudices, still virulent beneath the surface and exploited by the Repubicans, I'm afraid.
Nevertheless I'm hopeful that he will be chosen in november.
Kevin Portland, Oregon,
We're not angry that Hillary lost. WE DON'T LIKE OBAMA.
I am sorry to say that I believe that White America (and some Hispanics) are willing to cut of it's nose to spite it's face. As an African-American, I have seen some people go silent & seem to cringe at the idea of a having an African-American President that seems very capable of doing the job; and the saddest part is some people don't realize they are doing it.
Because the last thing the world needs is a leader with rock star status. Perhaps a more appropriate place for Obama would be Hollywood.
Jack Cafferty sounds off hourly on the Situation Room on the stories crossing his radar. Now, you can check in with Jack online to see what he's thinking and weigh in with your own comments online and on TV.
About Jack Cafferty
Subscribe | Send Feedback