FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:
Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination and the odds are he'll go all the way to the White House. So say the bettors in the prediction markets.
Reuters reports that traders in the Dublin-based "Intrade" market give Obama an 86% chance of being the nominee, versus a 13% chance for Hillary Clinton.
On the "Iowa Electronic Markets" at the University of Iowa, traders give Obama an 83% chance of winning, compared to 13% once again for Clinton.
Both groups of traders are also betting that Obama will ultimately become president. Intrade in Ireland gives him a 59% chance, compared to 49% for the Republican, and Iowa traders give him a 57% chance versus 46% for the Republican.
These traders are betting that Clinton will win several of the remaining primary contests – like Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky. Nevertheless, they suggest she has little chance of becoming the Democratic nominee.
These prediction markets have an uncanny record of accuracy. In some cases, they're more accurate than the polls. And when it comes to those polls, Obama continues to narrow the gap with Clinton in Pennsylvania, which will vote on April 22nd. He's cut down her once double-digit lead to an average of 6 points now. She was once up by more than 30 points.
Here’s my question to you: What are the chances Barack Obama will go all the way to the White House?
His chances aren't any better than Hillary's. It's about the issues, and experience, and I don't think he measures up!
Jack you keep all those warm fuzzies up for him, and keep pounding
Hillary with that yellow hammer of yours!
Yes, I am an independent and I wasn't able to vote in the New York primary. If we could vote Hillary would have no chance. McCain better watch out Obama is unstoppable.
He is the exact opposite of Bush. He's a sure thing.
I think Barack Obama has a very good chance to become President because he offers a fresh approach to many of our nation's most serious problems. His intellect is exceptional, he is a "people" person, and he will be a good uniter. He is also young and exciting! I personally don't understand how anyone could vote for McCain who could be even more damaging to our country than Bush has been because of his refusal to get out of Iraq. His bad temper could be very dangerous and we might possibly be led into a war with Iran if McCain is President. I want someone who believes in PEACE and that is Barack Obama.
It is all but written on the wall Jack. He is our next President.
Oh Jack you are to hard on your man. Hit him with a cotton ball.
Barack has a very good chance of being our next president, as long as his campaign stays on message, and runs the general election like they have the primary.
America is more grown up now than it was 20-30 years ago. People are really starting to get Obama's message that we, as individual Americans, can make a difference.
Obama simply needs to continually remind those Americans who want "real change" in the way our Gov't is run, that we have far more in common than where we differ.
Those words resonate for me, and many others.
I would have to say pretty darn good from where i am sitting. No one wants an old man like McCain or a liar like Clinton so it is a time for change!
Jack: They better be 100%. Barack has 'earned' his votes and delegates fair and square. He is extremely intelligent, He looks and studies all options in front of him and then makes good judment. Look at how well he has run his campaign. This is a good indication of how he will take care of the problems which America is currently facing.- he is by far the best choice.. He will bring America back to the high standard it once was.
None. The compassionate conservative Christian Republican machine will use slander, libel, and every dirty campaign trick in the book to Swift Boat him back to Illinois.
I cannot support him yet because I feel that he is too far left to ever win the presidency. I like him and his views but feel that Clinton is more electable. So my answer is no.
As of right now,his chances are good,he has the momentum. But,remember that there is still a long way to go. Think back to all the candidates who had a big lead and lost. They all had skeletons in their past that they didn't disclose and it caught up with them,fairly or unfairly. Presidential politics is a blood sport and not for the squeamish or faint of heart.
According to the way we elected a President? The delegate math says Obama...that is unless the will of the people is ignored and Clinton is successful in changing the rules at the end of the game.
Most people have been raised to not trust politicans and if Clinton does win? It will take the democratic party another 40 years to get people involved again.
Zero. Not .000001, but zero. The republicans have infinitely more ammo on him to use in their attack ads than they ever dreamed of having with Dukakis or Kerry. It will be the political equivalent of Shock and Awe.
We saw how quickly his numbers fell just after the Pastor Wright revelation; imagine one of those (real or cooked up) every day. What happened to Kerry is not ancient history – everyone should be able to remember Swiftboating. Why, I ask you, do Obama's supporters think it won't happen to their guy?
I guess I should have said my answer is unlikely and a low chance. But if it is between him and McCain, I will be supporting him and hoping he DOES have a chance.
His chances would be great if he didn't accept public finacing. The Republicans will spend every dollar they have which will be almost about a billion dollars so if do not except public finacing he will win!
chances are slim. I am sure theres more dirt under the rug yet to be "swept" out for America to see,
Obama ALL the way Jack!
While he and Clinton agree on 99% of the issues Obama brings three things to the General election that Clinton can't bring.
Money for the next 8 years of democratic races around the country, he brings someone that people can trust and most important? He brings the young people in this country into the voting booth when no one thought it was possible which proves the aducity of hope he instills in the American people.
how can he lose?hillary becomes less of a threat,everytime she or someone in her campaign opens their mouths.mccain is too old and too much of what people don't want for the next term.mccain would've done better,but bush/cheney cheated him of a chance,the same way they cheated america and the world,the last several years.
Assuming he beats Clinton, he has an even chance of becoming President. McCain is increasingly showing his feebleness and lack of mental acuity. But for Obama to win it's going to take more than eloquent speeches and a mellifluous voice. He's going to have to explain why he continued to vote for funding the war while in the Senate. Saying "I opposed the war when I didn't have a vote" won't cut it. He will no longer have the luxury of deflecting answers to tough questions. If he thinks the primary was tough, he ain't seen nothin' yet.
I think Senator Obama has a very good chance of becoming president. If we get Senator McCain he will be like G.Bush and are economey will go further in the tank. We will continue to loss our fine young Americans.
I do not believe he or Senator Clinton will listen to any one else once they are in the white house just like good old George.
Connie from Indiana
The chances are excellant that Obama will be the next president. Clinton claims he can't win the big states, but her support comes from entrenched dems. who will vote dem. no matter what. Obama attracts the new and independant votes. just look at the results of many of the primaries, Obama pulls more votes than the total rep vote! And some of these were in "Red" states! He has a history of mediation and unification going back to his days on the law review. That is what is needed to defeat the bipartisan attitudes in gov't.
Looking at what is happening at this moment of time, yes, there is good chance of him becoming president. The problem is that people so often change their mind and we never know what will happen from now until November. Anything could happen. Look what is happening to Hilary who would have thought 2 year back that this primary would be a cake walk.
Nuwan from Houston, TX
I think the chances are better than 50-50 Jack. The debacle that was the bush/cheney administration is gonna make things very tough on Senator McCain. Additionally the long list of republicans caught up in Abromohoff influence peddling scandel will be hard to overcome when that topic is revisited. Obama's "pastor Disaster" will keep things close however. I think anger over the war will be greater than anger over the Reverand Wright and Obama will win a close victory.
His COMMON GOOD BEFORE INDIVIDUAL GOOD belief and that HOPE line he uses could get him all the way to the White House Jack.
I HOPE NOT, history may not repeat itself, but as Twain said it rythms sometimes.
As I see it the Dems have got a choice between a Lennenist and a Fascist. Both maybe???
Then we all have a choice don't we.
Where I come from there is this old saying that goes something like this, it takes about 50 years to get bad law off the book, my son will be an old man by then. Through the ages lots of men, women and children of all creeds and colours have died in the name of freedom. Please you the poeple stand for your right and just vote.
The current probablilty is 0.71396492 that Obama will continue as the leader in delegates, get the nomination, and win the presidential election.
Editor, The American Academy of Made Up Facts (ACMUF)
He has a 100% Chance. And if he isn't elected, Americans are 100% stupid.
DARN GOOD, JACK. HE IS OUR ONLY HOPE; IF HE ISN'T ELECTED, I AM MOVING TO CANADA.
its alot better than Hillary and greater than Mccain Bush,he will ride this country to a great turn around. Fl all the way to the white house
Jack, this man here will be the next president. Anyone who can withstand all the media and the Clinton's stories and still maintain a large lead, is definitely the next President. He may not have all the experience that is required, but with his judgement, Personality, and his dedication to this country he will make history. I am confident that he will select the right cabinent with all the experience he needs and he will be someone that listens to their advise and makes sound judgement. He will bring this world back together and give the USA a great name throughout the world again.
If the way he has conducted his campaign is any indication, be should win hands down. Unfortunately, it will probably be decided by some idiotic question about who you would like to bowl & have a beer with.
Did someone say America was being dumbed down?
BJ in Seminole, FL
Jack: I would bet all the money that I'm going to make from now until I die, that Obama is going to be the next President of the United States. He has inner satisfaction of knowing that he has done his best and that he has gotten the most out of what he has to give to the American people and the nation.
I think excellent....that is if Clinton can play by the rules and not continue to fracture the party past the ending of the primaries.
The American People are desperate for change in government, John McCain and Hillary Clinton will go to business exactly how the present administration does now. All indications point to Barack Obama surrounding himself with a team that will help him institute the changes that are needed to govern this country.
If I had any money to bet with, I'd put it on Obama winning in November. He's an inspiration to the nation and the world and would make a great president. It's a shame he'll have to run the Swift Boat gauntlet to get there, but we're ready for them this time.
Never underestimate the underhanded, nasty, and immoral tactics of the party of family values and their trusty Swift Boat policies. But it is not that which is the problem; it is the brain dead morons that refuse to hear the truth and insist on believing the lies of these equally brain dead, unpatriotic jerks.
To answer this question, lets look back to a time before the Iowa caucauses. He was the least recognized candidate with far less financial and political backing than Sen. Clinton. He is winining against one of the biggest political machines of our history. By November, Sen. Mcain would have detereorated and already confused issues more than shia, sunni, alquiada, and shia exteremists. Obama, can only get better with time and he will.
I think that he will be our next President.
i was in Pittsburgh last weekend and everyone I talked to have changed
there minds that were going to vote for Hilary. i ask them why they changed there minds and 95% of them said it was because of all the
lies that the Clinton campaign is circulating.
Another surprise was that they felt Hilary was not able to be commander and chief because every day she is someone different, both in personality and campaign strategy.
I am voting for Barack Obama because he has had a consistant message from day one about his campaign strategies.
Another reason why is i am a blue collar worker and i wont vote for
anyone who supports NAFTA....sHE CAN DENY IT ALL SHE WANTS BUT THE TRUTH IS THE TRUTH- and she will never tell the truth
After watching his questioning in the Senate yesterday, I seriously doubt it.
Senator Obama has a good chance of becoming President as we see it from a distance (Canada). His chances would be much better if the Clintons would back off and come alongside to support his candidacy. The Republicans :shot themselves in the foot" in choosing Senator McCain or as he is sometimes called, Senator McSame. It should be very clear that the voters are tired fo the war and the economic slowdown needs the attention of a leader who can bring people together for change. Good change in the USA affects the entire world and is much needed.
Barack will win if they do not try to cheat him like they cheated Al Gore in 2000
i think that if barack becomes president alot of things will cange for the better. and i want to have you ask someone about something. i work in a public job and i wear an obama pin, everyone that sees it always makes comments be they good or bad. but quite a few have told me that if obama is elcted president that he "wouldn't sleep a night in the white house" they seem to think that someone will make an attempt on his life if he is elected president. my question is why do they think this
obama will surely win jack, when the democratic nomination process is over and obama can train his sights and get Americans to take a hard look at mccain, i doubt he (mccain) will have anywhere to run, his party is responsible for most of the woes Americans are facing and he will pay a huge political price come november, aint pulling no wool over our eyes this time!!!
VERY SLIM JACK,Obama will be distroyed by McCain we are life time democrats and not racists but we will not vote for a good talker with no real record behind him for president their is five democrat votes in this family that will go to McCain, vickie
I would say 100%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I just keep picturing a debate between Obama and McCain.
He has my vote. I am a white well over 50 male that has voted all over the place politically my entire voteing life. I want to see if a new face can break the glass ceiling of the White House. I am tired of the clones that I have seen come and go in Washington.
There are some people who don't think Obama can go all the way. I won't say their names, but their initials are Hillary Clinton.
John McCain is out of step with the American people on Iraq, the economy, healthcare and foreign policy. And Obama very clearly has it (mostly) right.
However, John McCain is a patriot and a solid gold, honest to God American hero and Barack Obama shares his middle name with a prominent American enemy and he has Muslim heritage. Let me be clear, John McCain isn't a bad guy but if his biography is the only reason he wins in November, we don't deserve a President like Barack Obama.
Jack, you can bet the house on it – if you haven't already lost the house to foreclosure.
Well, Jack, there's a long road from here to there. You know the Clintons have a trick up their sleeves for right before Pennsylvania. It will be something just as bogus as the NAFTA rumors, but will hurt him temporarily. If she's still around when we get to the convention, she'll be working over everyone Bill ever did a favor for. Then you have the Republican swift-boaters who will have their thinly-veiled racist, anti-patriotic attacks.
Our biggest hope is Obama's faithful will not be moved. We are hard core, solid and optimistic. Just look at the Wright impact–hardly a ripple.
They're good, real good. For or against the guy he is generating excitement and interest not seen or generated by a Clinton or a Bush.
The real start of record breaking democratic registration started after Iowa. You got to love the fact that people are starting to remember the government is for the people, by the people again.
Are you kidding? He is a rock star. If he can beat Hillary by getting the Youth out to Vote he will roll right over John McCain. IF he beats Hillary he will be poised to truly expose the lies, deceptions, and cover ups of the current adminstration. It is most unfortunate that we cannot start with the new adminstration today.
I fully expect Obama to be the next president, though I fear Clinton dirty tricks that attempt to steal the nomination. That is a scenario that will cause a lot of newly registered voters to drop out of the process. I am hopeful that the leaders of the party will have the strength to keep the nominating process fair. With Obama as the nominee, we win.
It appears very likely. Hillary appears to be more competition than John McCain would be. The republicans are more like going to make the general election about race. I think thats an issue Barack is ready to meet head on. And I also think the American people have matured with regard to race relations over the past forty years. I hope so. If not, we could see the ugly side come out on both sides.
Obama will kick McCain's butt royally, Jack!
Voting for McCain will be voting for a third term for George Bush only worse. Look where we as a nation are right now, Jack. Gasoline prices out of sight, mortgage foreclosures, you name it. Are you better off today than when Bush took over? Do you feel safer today than when Bush took over? Are you proud of American with all the human and civil rights violations by the Bush administration? Are you proud of the Office of the Presidency since Bush took over?
McCain is the same as Bush and Hillary is not much better. She is the epitomy of the "good old boy" "old time dirty politics" of the past. We want America to be better and we want our elected leaders to change things up big time.
That is why I believe that Obama will win and because he has the best chance to do it nad change it!
I'll vote for Sen. Obama Jack, simply because I can't stand another Republican for President for another 4 years. It's just too sickening to watch John McCain yesterday rubber stamping the War in Iraq & Afghanistan without 1 thought to what he will continue to do to our sons & daughters.
Florida and Michigan voters disenfranchised combined with media bias, and one in four fickled-voters unable to decide; favors a Obama victory.
Not even 50/50. There are a Lot of Hard Boiled Republicans out there who will never vote for a Democrat. Tens of Millions of them. They are out there, Jack. Just because you don't hear them, doesn't mean they aren't there.
Oh, yeah, one more thing, he has to win the Nomination first, and That is far from a Done deal At this point. Let's see him win the Nomination first and ask that question again after that. This question is a wee bit premature, brother. Try again In October, if he's still there.
Mike, From Staten Island, New York
I n a word, NONE. I think that the longer this goes on, the more and more will be uncovered about Mr. Obama. I just learned today about a 3rd "Spiritual Advisor" and Illinois state senator, bashing and thrashing in an anti-gay rant. Once again another "Advisor" blaming Jewish America for all our ills. If the Republican party would ever take their gloves off ('cause they don't want to be called a bunch of racists) and start picking apart his background. I'm pretty sure that even more disgusting influential associates will come to light.
I'm a big believer that everyone one has A friend that they think is a little wacko, but now we have at least 3 anti-American, anti-Semitic "Spiritual Advisors" and of course Mr. Rezko. None of our canidates are perfect, but I honestly feel that who a person takes into their confidence speaks volumes as to who they really are.
I can't wait to hear the lame excuse about this guy!
Mary – Lincoln, NE
Sure thing. Who wants McBush? I don't want Obama either, but it seems inevitable. But I do think it will be a one term fiasco for the country, much like Carter. The media darling Obama has a few skeletons, as does his wife, the media just doesn't seem to be interested.
I think the race is already over, Jack. Obama is the choice of the people and any of the superdelegates voting against that will are committing political suicide. If you followed the Primaries close enough you could also see that in many cases the total number of democratic voters, outnumbered the total amount of Republican voters nearly two to one. Is that a sign or what?
Senator Obama is by far the best candidate to appear in a very long time. it would be fooish to not give him the opportunity to, at the very least, attempt to affect real change in how things are done in Washington. Other wise all you end up with is more of the same.
I don't like to give odds for something as complex and uncertain as a Presidential race, but I will say I believe he has excellent chances of being President.
I believe Barack Obama has an excellent chance of becoming our nation's 44th President. Unlike Hillary Clinton, he is not a polarizing entity and the change he expounds is exactly the change this country needs. John McCain is a true American hero and a fine man, but we as a nation must look to our future in regards to the economy, foreign policy and the multitude of other problems we face. Does Sen. Obama have all the answers – of course not! What President ever has. But at this time of "national emergency", the United States needs a leader who will not only inspire us but can move us forward in the world community with vision and purpose.
Obama has the same chance of becoming President as his white counter-part David Duke... ZERO -0-
I hope you are living in a dream world, Jack-all you had to do was watch him question a 5-star general and realize he does not have a clue how to be a President. He desperately needed a teleprompter, which I assume he did not have! I don't expect this to be posted, as usual.
Very little. The RNC will "swiftboat " him to death. There is not much they can dredge up about Hillary except the same old lies they have been sending out already. I don't think they will wash.
Pretty good, if – Michelle does noty talk about not being proud of the US, the Rev Wright hate talks are forgotten, and Obama's lobbyists stay out of Canada.
If Obama's running mate is Clinton he would have a 100% chance of winning the presidency.
If Obama chooses a less popular partisan running mate and McCain chooses a popular Republican, I would give Obama less than a 50%chance of winning.
Then again as this election season shows us again and again, all bets could be way off.
Sir Jack, I think Senator Obama's chances are about 65 percent on becoming the 44th POTUS. The majority of our citizens have said change is what they truly want. Obama's drive and enthusiasm will propel him to victory, but those looking at Obama for all the wrong reasons will make his road there a rocky one. Why anyone would want to become heir to Bush's war and our current economic problems beats me.
The chances are overwhelming. Obama is on a roll and he only holds the wedge to stop that roll. The only chance of Obama not being the president is if he does the Spitzer or worse. He has been able to resuscitate the political climate dampened by Bill's infidelity and Bush's 'don't get it', and charged it to such a crescendo that all he needs is to guard his loins and he will be president. Perhaps the most divisive issue in America is race and he appears to have weathered the race storm, so also the experience storm. I still long to see what can stop him except himself. And off the records, you will make a better Vee Pee for him than Hillary because you will neutralize the age factor.
I'm so afraid he 'will' win, it's makes me sick. People better wake up and smell the coffee. He's a wolf in sheep's clothing.
100% I think. It is very clear that Obama will win the nomination. After that I think people will see that McSame is not really going to represent their best interests with the economy as our number 1 issue right now, and McSame has openly said he doesn't even understand the economy. Obama will win very easily I bet.
Obama Richardson 08!!!!
The chances of an Obama presidency are even greater than the amount of money we've wasted in Iraq, fighting those Shiia...or is is Sunni...I can't remember. Joe, a little help here?
Slim to none...
It depends on if the media turns on him like they have on Clinton during the primary… he has not proven that he can carry the Democratic base… he has won a lot of states during the primary that will never vote democratic… it is a big reach to think that he will carry the independent vote and he may struggle with the hispanic vote as well… Iraq is going to be an issue depending on how the war is going 6 months from now… he has very little foreign policy experiencel… he still has some recent baggage with Wright and Rezko is still going on in Chicago…
Now add in his lack of experience, questionable judgement and foreign policy… it would be really hard to say that 50/50 really looks very good!!!
I think the Obamamites live for this board and the Political Ticker to psychologically click their heels to get back to Kansas. NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF WOMEN. I am extremely confident that Obama will not only never see the White House but will be thrown out from any political future as president and he will do it through his own arrogant ways. As for Pittsburg, that will be Obama's only strong stake with a good showing in central Philly given the nature of its voting group who are on a guilt trip. Popularity only lasts as long as a popsicle on a hot day! Obama gave the same type of speech at the Jefferson-Jack dinner in Richmond in '07 and everyone thought it to be boaring. This year it was "inspirational" with few changes and heavy pressure on Virginia delegates to move away from Hillary. Go figure?
Obama's chances are better than anyone else's chance.
HRC has already sunk herself.
McCain is stuck in the Bush quagmire.
Bozo the clown would win if he/she were a Democrat.
Obama has zero chance of winning in November! All of those states he has won, except Illinois, will vote Republican in the general election!! That's why the Democrats need to nominate Hillary Clinton, a candidate who has carried all of the crucial swing states necessary for victory in November.
In your dreams he will win the nomination. If he does get the nomination, he will likely lose to McCain. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. Look at the states she won and the states he won. Your bias against Hillary is making Hillary fans more and more angry and more likely to vote against Obama. I'm one of them. I'm looking forward to you covering the protest against the media bias in NYC this Friday. Hey, you might even see yourself on someone's sign.
The Bottom line is Americans are ready for a Change, ready for a government that works for the common man/woman, and ready for this war to end.
If all was fair and the voting system not able to be altered I would beat on Obama. But history has shown us that in America anything is possible. I don't trust the republican machine, so do count them out until the last vote is Counted or Not Counted.
Three words. Signed, sealed, and delivered to the White House by the everyday people of America. You can take that to the bank. President Barack Obama!
well i think he can but he shouldnt........
Ask every canidate why they want to be president??? please
I am so relieved that our leader is being chosen by traders in Ireland rather than traitors in Florida, like Katherine Harris or Jeb Bush. There's a one hundred percent chance that their choice will be a huge improvement. cy gardner, arlington VA
Alas, some things may be too good to be true. I would love for Obama to be our next president. However, I don't think it will happen. The neocons have worked to hard for what they have and they will not give up their power so easily. I anticipate rampant election fraud and ugly swift boating tactics during the election if it even looks like McCain might lose. The neocons will do everything they can to assure victory, even if they have to break the law to do it.
I hate to say this being a Obama supporter but I think his chances are good in the hearts of many but I will be few in the hands of the voters. I have spoken to many and I don't think America is ready for change. Which is seen by how fickle and easily swayed the voters are. ie Reverand Wright. People seem to like the fact that Old Man River (John McCain) is firm on tradition and non-change. And in the end, NO one really likes change!
Obama has a good chance, if he gets the support of leading democrats to get through the nasty attacks that are going to come from the republicans we'll be home and dry.I think he is prepared for them to fight dirty. He is the president I would like to have, for the sake of my children.
Joan North Carolina
It won't be a slam dunk, by any measure, but unless Hillary opts for the Tonya Harding routine or McCain (sucessfully) goes all "9-11, 9-11" on us, I think it'll be President Obama!!!!
(Don't you dare delete this. I have written many times and you guys keep pressing the delete button.)
Obama is the only one who can fix what George broke. If Iraq is Humpty Dumpty, and all the king's horses and men (i.e. this administration and the military) couldn't put (it) back together again, then Obama will because he has a real plan in the works. His starts with a SURGE in diplomacy, and a refusal to keep funding the Iraqi reconstruction and anti-insurgency that they have billions in oil revenues to pay for themselves AND oh yes, Obama WILL take care of the Al Qaeda problem, because once he shows the Iraqi's the way to a negotiated peace, the military will be 100% behind him to drive Al Qaeda out for good! Finally, we have a P-L-A-N!
I heard Hillary speak yesterday.....and she looked and sounded like she was asleep at the switch....same ol' same ol' line for political gain: "I'll draw down in 60 days"....then what? If I were the media, I would start throwing around this phrase SURGE....in diplomacy, you guys are also asleep at the switch. Oh, and Hillary, please don't copycat this too!
Obama's chances of winning the presidency depend heavily on how negative the Clinton camp is willing to go. If they continue to lie about him and things he says or does every chance they get it's only going to deepen the chasm that is already forming in the middle of the party. I read here on CNN earlier today that the Clinton campaign is still trying to keep the Rev. Wright controversy in the news by publishing a letter to the editor in the Wall Street Journal. The fact that her campaign is so desperate that it is sinking to the levels it has worries me, because for some reason there are a lot of people that still believe everything Hillary says, despite the fact that she has been proven to be a liar. If they believe her enough they probably will defect and vote for McSame in November, just out of spite.
We were all eating our Hillary porridge and saying nothing will change. Hillary didn't want anything to change, especially since she was trying to dupe us. Then Barack came along, and said "why not change". Suddenly we've been eating a smorgasbord of ideas, and exchanges of what America can be. We suddenly want our country back.
I would not want to be on the wrong side of this history page. I'm so glad I'm in the right camp.
America stands with Barack Obama, for change, new ideas, and a better world. Are you ready?
Jack, if the American people get it right, Barack Obama will be the next United States President. As a Canadian and someone looking from the outside in, I think voting for Obama will boost Americas reputation favorably around the world. He has something special and unique. He embodies great qualities that a President should possess.
Furthermore, the fact that he can get young and old, men and women, and people all around the world to stop and take an interest in American politics, this should not be ignored.
Nill...Something big and bad will happen that will be the direct result of the current administrations choices, martial law will be declared, the Nov. elections will be postponed(for security reasons no doubt), and you will be stuck with Bush the Bad indefinately.....scary huh?
I put his chances at 50-50. John Kerry was not nearly as popular, and he came close. Also, Obama is becoming somewhat immune to the swift-boating from Hillary, so he'll be tougher against McCain.
Observing from London UK, the feelers here is that Obama is already the president.
But since I am not in the country now, I leave it for you guys to figure out.
Slim to none. McCain will destroy him in the general election. Especially with the way the democrats are doing the people of Florida and Michigan. Obama is fraud and I am more than sure the Republicans will expose him if he is the nominee, but Hillary Clinton isn't dead yet and I pray she can get the nomination, she is our only "hope for change."
Jack the chances are excellent. Here is why – Let's pretend that you were interviewing 2 people for a job. One has a steady and consistent theme while the other one has unsteady, inconsistent schemes. One of them manages his affairs well while the other one reacts to affairs. One is a great speaker who motivates while the other is someone who aggravates . Who would you hire?
Roy from New Jersey
Absolutely none.No-one in their right mind will dare to present any public argument against Obama because that will be automatically jumped on as being racist,look at how the Clintons were treated.but in the privacy of the voting booth,his inexperience,the many gaffs during the campaign,and his thinning message of hope and change,will motivate many to vote McCain.
I have talked to a lot of people. If Barack Obama is the nominee, which for now looks very certain, it will be an interesting election. Some white & hispanic democrats would vote for a Republican in the general election. Conversely, some republicans will vote for Senator Obama. I know of a few white life long democrats who will vote republican for the first time if he is nominated. Call it racism or becaues of his inexperience, but they have decided.
I think people who bet that he will be a shoo in, are just hoping. And hope is what Barack Obama's got.
I am a Democrat and will vote for any of the two candidates who gets nominated. Those who claim they will jump ship or not vote if either one of the Democrat does not get nominated are just foolish. They are just cutting their nose to spite their face?
I still want him to watch his back when he's in the White House. The Clintons have a lot of friends and some of them are shady. Barack watch your back, she has her claws out.
oh yeah, withouth a shadow of a doubt Obama will be our next president, he is so connected to the American people, he know we are suffering right now in this economy, while Mcbush plans to wage another war with Iran, people are going to wake up and smell the coffee and vote for Obama, hey Jack i wil l see you at the ingauration.
Jayne in NH
I'll take that bet the reality are when he loses the white female working class vote, and the other pockets of core Hiliary voters like me
who happens to be one of those black women MSNBC reported on yesterday, he doesn not have the electoral to win. Let us be serious Obama won sourth Carolina but in november the majority of the state white middle class will vote for MCcain,,,, so will Utah.... That is what I hate about reporting from the media, the real story of a closed door both is not being counted
Jack I think the American people are ready for black president specially a guy like Obama is a once in life time leader. Every body white, black, hispanic,asian would not want to Miss this opportunity, most people think he will united the nation and heal old wonds, America is ready for a change we can not afford another Bush or Clinton or MCSame(Mccain). We need different kind of leadership, tired of the old washington politics. This will fulfill Martin Luther King's dream. May God Bless this great nation United States Of America.
Senator Barack Obama will win the nomination and become the next president of the United States. Why? He generates excitement and he is inspiring. He reminds many of the time JFK ran for the presidency. Obama is a great speaker but one who has values and his values are in step with many people of all nationalities. He is the right person at the right time. He's intelligent and he has surrounded himself with many power brokers who will give him their opinion. However, he has the intellect to think for himself and do what is right for our nation. His election as president will be looked on throughout the world as a message of hope not only to Americans but to other citizens of many nations. This is what America should be all about!!!
And if he is elected, the world will respect our nation and our democratic principles even more!!!!
John Kerry was supposed to sweep to victory in 2004/ all the college hype was there but when it came down to the general election, the American people voted with their morals and i bet they will do the same and vote for McCain. My husband fights in iraq as i am typing this and i pray our sacrifices as well as others are not in vein.
I am sad to say that I think they are zero.
Once he is endoorsed the Republican attack machine will kick into high gear concering both the Rev. Wright and the Rezko afair.
Over and over again. God D... America! and Obama givng that church monies. The U.S. of KKK and Obama continuing to be a member.
And then we will finally see the real estate listing for the house with a large side yard that Obama claims was two parcels, that never was two parcels until after his and Rezko's joint purchase.
Not a chance. Americans will wake up in the next few months and realize he's a lightweight.
I all depends on one thing ,Will all the people who want him to be elected actualy go and vote come November
I think obama is America's best bet. McCain is crazy and Clinton is not far behind.
No one will ever be able to explain to me why he didn't become the next president of the United States, if he doesn't. He is this once in a lifetime opportunity. I'm begging the people of my favorite country in the world: don't miss it.
PS For those who hesitate: read "It's getting ugly out there" and then "The audacity of hope". In this order please :-)
Ofcourse he will win ... media giving him most attention between all the three candidates .. media will make him win
Adwait , NJ
If Obama wins the nomination my whole family (life-long democrats) will be voting for McCain. We can't afford 4 more years of experimentation and maybe's after 8yrs of GWB. I am really worried about the party losing again but I think McCain is a much better candidate than Obama.
I'm sure Obama's intelligence and leadership abilities will over-ride the petty attacks that most Americans, regardless of race, gender or economic status, can't afford to pander to. He will be our next President.
My bookie, Bill Bennet, assures me that McCain will be the next president.
Obama's problems with reverend Wright are far from over. Just imagine an ad running in October that shows Obama refusing to place his hand over his heart during the pledge of allegiance, the cuts to his wife saying that this is the first time she's ever been proud to be American and finally closes with reverend Wright screaming GOD DAMN AMERICA.
To say that all of these things create an image problem is an understatement.
he's just another Spook in the boogeyman syndrome
You guys are all asking for what you deserve by putting a racist and a hypocrite into office. My self and people that live here in florida, are all going to vote for MCCain if he is the nomination. We have by die hard democrates, but the way Obama drug his feet for us down here, he can take his nomination and well, i wont get to nasty.. Lets just say, alot of people here in florida despise this racist and hypocrite.
Do you think the Republicans are going to spare any details when it comes to his name Hussein? Once they spend all their campaign money on making every American awear the guy's name is Hussein then i guess the question will be, Is America ready for a president named Hussein?
He may win the battle (Democrats nomination), but he will certaily loose the war (the Whitehouse); this is an adult game and he is way too immature to understand it, and the his Party is way to chicken to show some leadership!
He has a better shot than I would have predicted, before the primaries started. And if Hillary keeps lying, my mistake mis-speaking his chances will only get better. Lets go with about a 70% chance.
"John Kerry was supposed to sweep to victory in 2004/ all the college hype was there but when it came down to the general election, the American people voted with their morals and i bet they will do the same and vote for McCain"
No offense but what made you think John Kerry was gonna win??? Even I knew President Bush was gonna repeat..........
It depends on what deal the Clintons can broker with the devil. They will stop at nothing even after he gets the nomination. They will try to bring him down. The sniper fire might be real this time.
I've already placed my wager & my returns are sure. It's simple math Jack ... how about beers afterwards.
Even though I'm a strong Clinton supporter I really think Obama will get the nomination and most likely win the general election. I will support whom ever gets the Democratic nomination as I can't even imagine another four years like the last eight. I just hope Obama isn't all talk and no know how. He is so obviously a very intelligent man but I wonder how much he really knows about the world and how to deal with the mess Bush will be leaving .
I feel that the Obama campaign has proven itself to be extremely well run with regards to organization, fundraising, grassroots organizing, and staying on message and not being too negative. Since McCain is not looking to end the war anytime soon and has no idea about what to do with the economy... Obama's ability to rally the American people and their representatives in Washington should drive him straight to the White House.
West Chester, PA
100% if he's the Democratic nominee. "It's the economy, stupid."
The chances are very high Obama will be the next President. He is the only candidate with the judgement and transparency that this country really really needs to lead us away from the disastrous Bush Presidency.
Next to none. If he wins the nomination most of Hillary's votes are going to go to McCain....including ours. We sure don't need an inexperienced Muslim in the White House. Maybe he should have his minister run for vice president.
Barack Obama has what it takes to reach out to the rest of the world. If you spend some time reading the comments/opinions of newspapers around the world, you will find that most everyone is for Barack. Why? Because they all believe that he is not an antagonist. And there is a very good chance he will heal the damage done to the worlds perceptions of America and who we are.
he got more chance because he is getting the youth and the youth can easily convinced their parents, and he is bringing something new wich is change; at the same time he is honest and care about the issues americans have. since mccain is the republicans nominee, too old, I think people will have problem with his age.
Jack, When the country finds out all about Hussein Obama, he will run away with his tail between his legs!! Glass jaws CANNOT win an election. Wait and see! Dan Nashville
I think he has a GREAT Chance...The reason? If they (clinton, bush and the republicans slime machine) couldn't bring him down the last couple of weeks with the REV Wright, Rezco, Inexperience, Unpatriotic stories,and no other dirt comes out about him, he will sail in the white house. All this talk about McCain being a threat to him is laughable. McCain is a 71 almost 72 year old Senior Citizen who has temper problem, wants to keep our troops in the Iraq for a 100 years, and has memory loses with regards to Sunni and Shiite . Also he will get eaten alive at the debates when Obama gets through with him. As soon as the first debate happens, his poll numbers will start to plummet.
It is so scary to think people would be so blind as to put another Mini Me Bush,McCain in office.But after giving 2 elections to republicans, 8 years these people gave Bush,I really can not honestly say they are smart enough to change.No one has even mentioned the military draft coming soon to your town. I like Obama and it really does not matter that he is 1/2 black ,he could be all white, the truth is the green money machines run the U.S.
Pretty fair, as there are a lot of VERY stupid voters out there.
Absolutely!!! Sen. Obama has energized this country to new heights. We see the huge numbers of people that are attending his rallies and registering to vote. We cannot wait until we have our chance to show the country how feel our next President! I spoke with my Grandmother who 88 years old and African American. She told me tearfully, that she did not expect to see this during her lifetime. That alone shares the importance of what he brings to people!
Get on the Obama train!!!
It's a very good possibility. The American people are tired of the same old politics and that they are ready for something new and fresh.
Obama will most certainly win the nomination....and the presidency because of the mentality of 2 destinct groups:
1. those that are inspired by him.
2. those that mistrust Hillary.
I would also suggest that the CNN article mention of Bill Clinton raking in $800,000 from Bogata's Gold Service International, a company supporting the Colombia free trade deal should raise a bright red flag for anyone considering Hillary. Her blithe dismissal of Bill's support on NAFTA suggests she doesn't consider their differences to be a big deal. It wouldn't be big deal for Mr. and Mrs. normal citizen but it becomes a very big deal if we have a president and past president in the white house at odds with each other on serious issues...both holding huge influence in the world.
Sorry, but Obama's black(though only by half) and this is still America.
No. Obama will lose to John McCain in November. There are some little secrets still to be revealed about our little Mr. Barry Obama
i think obama is the most honest of the three candidates, he has not been exposed to the corruption of washington. morally, i can not vote republican
Hold this truth to be self evident, Barack Obama will be our next president. Hillary better start working on her voice so she can part of the signing choir she popped off about when he takes the oath of office.
In January 2009 join me and others in moving this country forward with our newly sworn in President of the United States... Barack Obama.
I think he will become the next president and for the good of all Americans. I have been in public service for over twenty-five years and I have seen how the youth have changed from family oriented with values to what ever they call these attitudes these days. My point is if he is inspiring the youth in this capacity, then by God let him do just that. If we love our children and our children's children, then let there be this inspiration for the good of us all.
Obama has the change that we have been loking for in America. The youth is our future and they are definitly voting for this change in the White House. Why should we put another Clinton in office. We have had a Clinton before like we have had a Bush, and what a mess.
I am 61, white, female and by all accounts should be voting for Hillary, but her campaign has been a huge let down, and my respect for her has evaporated. Her crediblity is zero.
Obama was impressive from day one, my admiration for him increases. Our image overseas would improve dramatically with him as our President, his willingness to take a less partisan approach in tackling problems at home could help bring resolution.
No doubt the Clintons will try more Karl Rove style tactics to steal the nomination, but in my mind now he is by far the superior and more qualified candidate.
In spite of all the MSM good will toward Mr Obama, his chances are still slim and none.
First off, Hillary is a proven Liar! Don't we already have one of those in the White House? Just keep Weapons of Mass Destruction and Dodging sniper fire in the back of your head while you cast your vote! As for McCain... does everyone realize that our little decorated war hero blew up his own aircraft carrier while fighting in Viet nam. just google USS Foresstal and McCain, you'll see what I mean!
With the media in his pocket and no scrutiny allowed I think he has a cakewalk. However, there is always the possibility of a backlash or buyers remorse.
I believe that Obama will win the nomination because a "duarchy" is not right for America and that is what we will get if Clinton is elected.
In regards to the race against McCain, Obama will need a strong candidate for vice president in order to win.
Obama has the best shot at being the next president, without a doubt. Between McCain's forgetful moments and Hillary's campaign train wreck how could anyone have any doubt? Hillary will keep digging herself deeper, McCain will keep mixing up Shia's and the Suni's while Obama just lays back and waits to lay his hand on the Bible.
Barack Obama will go all the way to become the next POTUS!
If the Democratic Party is truly democratic, Obama will be the next president. If the Party allows superdelegates to overrule the popular vote then John McCain will win.
Please don’t leave me in moderation! Maybe the third time is a charm?
Well Jack I think his chances are pretty good. Looking at the Math
By CNN website
Obama has 1414 Pledge Delegates
Clinton has 1243 Pledge Delegates
Thats a difference of 171 Delegates. Now even if Mrs Clinton wins PA 55% to 45%(which is looking less likely) that will give her a net gain of 16 Delegates(not even 10% of her deficit). PA is the biggest delegate well left in the last ten elections by far, the next closest is NC after that there is a pretty steep drop in delegates available. So even if she wins out the primary season she will not be able to catch up. She is down by 5.6% with less than 18% of total the vote left. Ok so now that we've delt with that lets talk about McCain and the general. McCain has been polling pretty well when he isn't challenged. But he is banking his whole campaign on a war that 80% of the country is done with. He himself said economics wasn't his strong suit and as he gets more scrutiny people will see that the Economy is the Key issue in the election. I like McCain but he isn't a overly strong Candidate for Pres. So if I were to lay odds on Obama being the next Pres. I'd say he has a 60% chance.
If I have any say, Barack will be the President. He brings something we haven't had for a long time....HOPE for a better tomorrow!
Jack Cafferty sounds off hourly on the Situation Room on the stories crossing his radar. Now, you can check in with Jack online to see what he's thinking and weigh in with your own comments online and on TV.
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