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March 7, 2008
Posted: 02:04 PM ET
 Click the play button to see what Jack and our viewers had to say.

Click the play button to see what Jack and our viewers had to say.

FROM CNN’s Jack Cafferty:

It’s looking like Barack Obama will almost certainly finish up the primary season with more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton, although it won’t be enough to clinch the nomination.

In a Newsweek piece called “Hillary’s New Math Problem,” Jonathan Alter writes how despite Clinton’s three wins this week, the delegate math is working against her. He suggests Clinton needs very large margins in the 12 remaining primaries, an average of about 23 points, which is more than double the margin of her Ohio win.

If Clinton is not leading in pledged delegates come June, a lead in the popular vote might help her convince superdelegates that she is the stronger candidate. But right now, Clinton trails Obama there as well, by about 600,000 votes.

It all boils down to a pretty messy scenario for the Democrats where the nearly 800 superdelegates could be left to decide on the nominee. Clinton still leads Obama when it comes to the votes of these party insiders by 238-to-199. But, keep in mind, if Obama maintains a pledged delegate lead, he’ll ultimately need fewer of these superdelegates to commit to him in order to become the nominee.

Alter adds that several prominent uncommitted superdelegates tell him there’s no way they would reverse the will of Democratic voters… that it would shatter young people and destroy the party.

Here’s my question to you: How confident are you that the winner of the most pledged delegates in the primary season will become the Democratic nominee?

Interested to know which ones made it on air?

Chris from Fort Myers, Florida writes:
I have no confidence that the nomination will go to the candidate with the most pledged delegates. In fact, after watching this debacle, I have no confidence that the Democrats even know how to run their own party. Guess how much confidence I have that a Democratic president and a mostly Democratic Congress can effectively run this country?

Charlotte writes:
Jack, Superdelegates may very well decide this race. Their job is to figure out what states were won by which candidate. Will these states most likely vote Democratic or are they states that go to Republicans in November? Since Obama has failed to carry important states in the primary, they have no choice but to consider that in making their decision.

Janice from Whitwell, Tennessee writes:
I don’t feel very confident. This is the first time a black man has had a snowball’s chance of winning the highest office. I don’t think many people are ready for that including the superdelegates and the media. Example: when HRC cried media bias, the media tucked their tails and jumped on the Clinton wagon. The superdelegates will do the same if the situation arises.

Marie from California writes:
I am not confident at all. The truth is: while Obama’s supporters are talking math, the Clinton’s are claiming momentum. The old Washington machine is going to support Clinton whatever the numbers are, so watch out. The Democratic Party may be heading for self-destruction rather than an invigorated spurt of growth and a working majority in the Congress.

Mary writes:
I am so confident that the candidate with the most pledged delegates will be the nominee that I am willing to bet money that Hillary Clinton will switch parties mid-primary and join McCain’s ticket as V.P. The Democratic voters will be satisfied and Hillary will not have to go stark raving mad from having to actually concede.

Filed under: 2008 Election


Aditi   March 7th, 2008 2:06 pm ET

Yes, I am sure they will consider electability.
What is your thought on reverse racism?

Bev H.   March 7th, 2008 2:09 pm ET

If this is NOT the way the democratic candidate is decided, I think you’re going to see pure mayhem. I also think the same is true if votes are counted from Michigan and Florida where the rules were not adhered to and where one of the candidates did not campaign. I understand that Florida is planning to seek legal action. How SHOCKING! Florida to be involved in a law suit concerning an election? Can’t we just vote them off of the island and be done with it?

John from Carlsbad, CA   March 7th, 2008 2:13 pm ET

Jack

I am not very confident at all. I put nothing out of reach of Hillary’s desire for power. She will do anything to get what she wants including telling the voters that they don’t count, she and her quest for power is the only thing that matters.

She has shown her true colors with all of this negative campaigning and “fighting” as she calls it. The sad fact is she is not fighting for the American people, she is fighting for her own desire for power. Nothing is below her to get what she wants.

Celia Ann   March 7th, 2008 2:17 pm ET

That is how it is supposed to work. I can see alot of voters being really angry at the democratic party if it doesn’t go that way. I hope you guys aren’t asking this questions becasue there is something fishy going on. I guess the Super delegates, they can go the way they want to go, but they might have to go looking for another job too when its time for reelection. I thought the Dems were about playing fair and changing washington this time round.

Hey you guys, The Archivists have blocked the release of the Clinton Papers!!! There is an this executive order that Pres Bush and Pres Clinton can agree to in order to get them released. Bill Bradley just did a story on JIm Leher’s show saying that he doubted that they wanted anyone to see those pardons and who they were for.

kb from Iowa   March 7th, 2008 2:17 pm ET

It only becomes a messy scenerio if the DNC shreds the rule book and scatters all those new participants in the democratic process they keep bragging about, into worthless scraps of paper across the country.

Brian From Fort Mill, S.C.   March 7th, 2008 2:17 pm ET

If it’s a do-over, then Obama has the chance to catch up, assuming he’s behind.

If he keeps it close in both Florida and Michigan, then it won’t make much of a difference - he’ll still be ahead by, say, 50 or 60 delegates.

Another wrinkle is that, if the superdelegates conclude that neither state is likely to be a blowout, then they may start committing more of their support to Obama.

If I were him, I would stay mostly positive, with a few negative jabs, just to show that he’s not a wuss.

James D (Cary, NC)   March 7th, 2008 2:19 pm ET

I think the worst thing Democrats can do is eat their young. If all the young activists feel like their efforts were squashed by super-delegates this voter tornout will evaporate.

Patricia   March 7th, 2008 2:19 pm ET

Jack, I thought the rules said 2024 delegates were needed, not a simple majority. And I don’t see why we have superdelegates if their only purpose is either to ratify their home districts’ votes or ceritfy the one who has the majority of delegates. i thought they were supposed to evaluate the various factors to determine their preferences. I am tired of hearing about the Obama vote abandoning the party if they don;t get their way. If he were ‘destined’ to win, he’d end up with the 2024; otherwise, the superdelegates make a reasoned judgment. Myself, I think it’s about time someone noticed that women are just as significant to the party’s success in November as the young and the wealthy and the black votes; and they know how to feel’shattered’ in their quest for history, too..If one candidate receives a majority in delegates and the other in popular votes, superdelegates had better do it right.

Patricia
Manchester, Massachusetts

Deb in San Antonio, TX   March 7th, 2008 2:20 pm ET

Ths issue goes back to Gore in 2000, where he lost the populous vote over the delegat, which is an idiotic system. We want our next Commander in Chief to be “experienced” not full of mesmerized dreams that are just that, Hillary is the one winning the big states that will be able to defeat McCain in November, and the totals of voters having voted for her are a landslide in comparision to what McCain received in these same states. Obama needs to wait another few years to get better prepared, he’s just not ready yet!
Sadly, the pressures are on for the Superdelegates to endorse him, but this is “wrong”, we need a strong candidate not a great speech maker”. It’s a shameful system. Let the voice of the people be heard.

charlie   March 7th, 2008 2:20 pm ET

Hillary call the vice president Darth Vader who also voted for the war that is still killing innocent people including many American lives (including my nephew last April).

So what is Hilary calling herself……..

So I guess BO aid was correct.

What should Hillary call herself?

And, why are the delagates picking her to be President?

I have one word for hillary (…..).

Marilyn   March 7th, 2008 2:21 pm ET

The only thing I’m convinced of is that the DNC is part of the Clinton machine. Democrats are going to have a tough time getting a real liberal as the nominee. The party is conditioned to give the American people mealy-mouthed centrists like Clinton and it’s tough to break old habits. And if the Democrats give us Clinton, I’m voting for Nader.

Ray Kinserlow   March 7th, 2008 2:22 pm ET

The best solution I’ve heard for the problem is from Representative John Conyers to split the Michigan and Florida delegations evenly between Clinton and Obama. I doubt Clinton will go for it but it seems the only fair thing to do short of holding new elections for which no wants to pay.

Ray Kinserlow
Lubbock, Texas

j mooree   March 7th, 2008 2:24 pm ET

it seems very likely the delegates will be the deciding factor in the election. but, if the negative campaining continues the delegate could have an easier decision; if obama is another ken starr would that make hillary carl rove jr.?

Rosemary fr. Syracuse, NY   March 7th, 2008 2:24 pm ET

I’m cinfused. If the delagates are all sewn up now, we do we even bother to vote in November? And I repeat from my comment yesterday, Hillary should not give up until the scheduled Democratic convention. What is the hurry, George Bush isn’t going anywhere until NEXT January.

chuck cornett   March 7th, 2008 2:24 pm ET

Jack,Iam pretty confident that the pledged delegates will make the difference that is unless the Clintons try some under handed tactics like they did with Florida and Michigan where did they learn this from the republican party and what they did to Al Gore?????

Bert, Iowa City, IA   March 7th, 2008 2:25 pm ET

I’m not very confident at all. I have a feeling it will be politics as usual. The American Heritage Dictionary defines politics in the third definition as Crafty; unscrupulous; cunning. For some reason those words bring to mind—- Clintons.

Debbie   March 7th, 2008 2:26 pm ET

Since all this talk is going on about playing “by the rules” with regard to Michigan and Florida, then we should “play by the rules” with regard to superdelegates, and the rules state “there are a total of 794 unpledged delegates (known as superdelegates) who are free to vote for any Democratic presidential candidate at the convention.” Those who scream that superdelegates should vote for the candidate with the most pledged delegates aren’t playing by the rules. And, everyone knows, we all about the rules, right? Or are we all about the rules only when the rules favor our particular candidate? With that said, I don’t think anyone can be confident about anything regarding the selection of the democratic nominee.

gideon   March 7th, 2008 2:26 pm ET

Jack ,
FYI, you don’t have the Obama superdelegate count right.

Its 215 for Obama

Ellie silvis   March 7th, 2008 2:26 pm ET

I think Hillary will scratch, claw, berate, beg, borrow and steal to get the nomination even if Obama has won the most states, the popular vote and the most earned delegates.

Raphael Houston Texas   March 7th, 2008 2:26 pm ET

I am not confident that the leader of the pledged delegates will be the nominee. The rules of the game are the first candidate to 2025 wins, not who is leading the race. If Michigan and Florida have a redo vote we will have a clear winner. Let the voters decide who is the best candidate and not who has a lead in the third quarter.
Its clear the Obama campaign wants to call the race now without letting the voters of every state have a voice. Thats why its called the United States of America and not the United States of America except for Florida and Michigan.

Eric Platt   March 7th, 2008 2:27 pm ET

I am getting really tired of the discussion about Super Delegates.

Nobody answers the basic question: If Clinton wins California, and a majority of the votes cast over all the primaries go to Obama, why should the California super delegates have to vote for Obama? Shouldn’t they vote they way their state voted?

The Super Delegates were invented to provide a chance for second thought in case a charismatic candidate appeared that attracted attention, but was unelectable. The Democratic party set up a mechanism to counter a mania, and in order to get an electable nominee.

This year is what the system was invented for. The Super Delegates can vote anyway they want.

This goes to the convention, and maybe when the deadlock arises, everyone can turn to Al Gore, and get a nominee that is unbeatable.

Eric
Toronto, Ontario

melvin   March 7th, 2008 2:27 pm ET

Mr. Dean says play by the rules, okay fine, what does the rules say about the Super Delegates, they vote too.
Everybody is so afraid to say Obama might not get the nomination.
Remember the Super Bowl were Leon Lett got the ball and was fixing to score a touchdown, except here comes a Buffalo player and he knocks the ball out of Leon’s hand just before he scores.
If Obama does not have the required votes, he has not crossed the finish line.
Let Jessie and Al scream all they want. Rules are Rules.
I said it, you will not.
Melvin
La Junta,Co

Michele   March 7th, 2008 2:27 pm ET

Not very confident at all. Hillary has already said, “To hell with the pledged delegates. I won the big states.” We already know that something is getting ready to take place in that back room. As an African-American Obama supporter, if Hillary doesn’t win this thing fairly, I’m not voting at all in November.

-Michele
Houston, TX

JoAnn in Iowa   March 7th, 2008 2:28 pm ET

There are not options. If the super delegates don’t follow the will of the people, the party divides and the show is over. The voters have to come away feeling that the process is fair.
The numbers do not support Hillary winning this. She now is a spoiler. The longer she stays in, the more divided the party becomes and the less the chances are that the democrats win in the fall. The honorable thing is to throw her support to Obama and gracefully step away now.

Mary   March 7th, 2008 2:28 pm ET

I am not confident that the most pledged delegates will become the Democratic nominee.

See, IMO, Hillary needs to win because she is the best person for the job at this time when our country faces many difficult issues. Besides, the women, and seniors will be teed off if she doesn’t win, and they are the ones who will stick in there with Hillary when it comes time to vote in November against McCain.

Alter, and you just don’t get it at all. Barack will be the cause of the shattering of the party because instead of working as a Senator for awhile longer he had to try to jump ahead of Hillary, and that does not sit well with a lot of women who were all ready primed to see that glass ceiling break!

Mary from Florida

tco in Virginia   March 7th, 2008 2:28 pm ET

I am hopeful, at best, that the delegates will follow the will of the people. I don’t really understand this “super delegate” stuff except it reeks of the electoral college. Both should be eliminated and our country should become a true democracy. Americans no longer need these “paternal” institutions which do nothing to enhance voter participation but instead work to silence it.

R.Smith   March 7th, 2008 2:29 pm ET

Not very at all. Looks like the superdelegates will decide who is the nominee.That is the way the democrats have it set up and it just might come back to bite them come NOV.

Sandra from Texas   March 7th, 2008 2:30 pm ET

I would say that I am not confident, because I put absolutely nothing past the Clintons. At this point, I don’t think anyone else does either. If you do the math, there is no way she can get more pledged delegates going into the convention. Yet, she continues to stay in this race to smear Obama and elevate the Republican. The Clintons are only concerned about the Clintons. End of story.

Harry   March 7th, 2008 2:31 pm ET

I would like to say very confident, however we democrats have shown a remarkable propensity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

If Hillary wins, she presumes that she will lead the ticket and Obama will obediently fall in line as V.P. That would discourage a lot of people that are current Obama supporters. If he has future political aspirations, it would be strongly recommended that he NOT be a V.P. contender.

Likewise, if Obama wins the nomination and has Clinton as V.P. (highly unlikely), he will most likely lose the election. Part of his appeal is that he is NOT a Clinton. Whether it is sexism or not is debatable, but a fairly large minority in this country absolutely do not like Hillary Clinton.

The same feeling is for Bill Clinton as well. People want the good times of the 90’s back, but not the scandals, that the Clintons are so richly blessed with experience.

Harry
Carlisle, Ky.

Marie   March 7th, 2008 2:31 pm ET

It appears it will come down to the supergelegates…and the Democratic party will be more divided than it is now….if that is possible. When you listen to any of the Superdelegates speak about their choice, it is clear they do not all plan to cast their vote to any kind of standard. Some say if they are from a certain state, which has voted a certain way, they must vote with their state. Others say that they will vote the popular vote, others say they will choose the most likely to win in November….and some, like Bill Richardson, say that it was so close in his state, it is ok for him to choose either candidate. They will each play by their own rules. So it will come down to backroom politics. I think it is a losing situation for the Dems. While reading all of the blogs etc., it is so apparent that people are in extreme mode when it comes to their own candidate of choice….they love their own, and see only bad in the other. The supporters of whoever is slighted may very wll throw in the towel, as it is a clearly divided party…and no end in sight.

roger dowdle   March 7th, 2008 2:32 pm ET

Given the penchant of the Clintons to go negative and dirty up the campaign, I am sure they will do the best they can to bribe superdelegates with promises of higher office, ambassadorships, etc. in order to win. The worst thing about this would be the number of young voters they would turn off (including those who already voted in primaries), and who may not bother to vote in the general election. Another problem for democrats if Clinton wins is the number of independants who would switch over to McCain! When you include the number of blacks who would justifiably feel “robbed”, and who may not participate, it may become impossible for the dems. to defeat McCain! When you win the battle but lose the war, it becomes a phyrric victory and worthless.

Shaun Francis   March 7th, 2008 2:32 pm ET

Jack,
The superdelegate issue should be moot. In a normal year, there are 4,049 delegates to be had. A majority of those (half plus one) would be 2,025. When the DNC stripped FL and MI of their delegates no one reduced the number from 2,025 as the target these candidates were shooting for. If the 313 delegates from FL and MI are removed, that leaves 3,736 and makes 1,869 the number needed to reach a majority of available delegates. That is a number that both candidates can reach from this point forward, and what the DNC should announce as the target. If they do that the party can avoid a brokered convention, avoid having superdelegates decide this thing, and be a fair, reasonable soultion to this problem. If the party wants to seat FL and MI delegations after that, they can do so with the stipulation that they delegates cast their votes for whoever won the majority of the 3,736.

melvin   March 7th, 2008 2:32 pm ET

Ever heard of the electoral college.
Super delegates are there as a safe guard against
total disaster.
Melvin
La Junta,co

Nuwan Samaranayake   March 7th, 2008 2:32 pm ET

The notion that pledge deligates have to decide the candidate is wrong itself. The reason you have superdelegates is to observe the conditions and make the right choice for the party. If only pledge delegates representing the voice of the people matters, then Democrats would have deviced the same method Republicans use. There is a purpose why there are superdelegates. Sometimes people don’t see the big picture. 2000 and 2004 elections are good examples. If people voted right in 2000 and 2004 this country would not have been in this mess now.

Nuwan from Houston, Texas

Angela   March 7th, 2008 2:32 pm ET

All I hear is how Senator Clinton is changing the rules, moving the goal posts etc. But when it works in Obama’s favor, lets change ‘em!!!

Jackie - You can’t have it both ways.

Florida and Michigan broke the rules - end of story.
Well, pledged delegates matter - thats the rule. End of story.

The rule of pledged delegates is they have to exercise their best judgement. Rules are rules. So if they want to go against their state voters’ preference, then they can do so.

If you really want to argue that point, then ALL pledged delegates have to follow the will of the voters of their state. So everyone who is pledged to Obama will have to switch to their states’ candidate of choice. EG - Sens Kerry and Kennedy will have to go to Sen. Clinton.
I would be curious to the see the breakdown - since Senator Clinton won the most ‘big’ states.

Those pesky DNC rules!!!

kevin in peoria   March 7th, 2008 2:32 pm ET

Jack come on! Politicians are not exactly known as risk takers. Isn’t this the exact arguement Hillary Clinton attempts to advance each time there is a challenge to her voting record.I did what everyone else did,I voted the way everyone else voted. It is different when you have the pressure of being responsible to the people who elected you. Yet we are here because she is asking her polictical counterparts to do something she has as much as said she would not do. Be brave overturn the will of the people. I have no doubt that when the time comes the superdelegates will confirm Obama as the party nominee. Even if the party leadership does not have the balls to do what they should have.

Kevin in Clearwater   March 7th, 2008 2:33 pm ET

It is my belief that the count in pledged delegates as well as projections that we are looking at a brokered convention emphasizes the need for the DNC to provide some method of seating delegates from Florida and Michigan.

Both candidates make valid points. Obama has won more states, while Clinton has won more states viewed as swing states and must-win states needed to carry a Democratic candidate in November. The super-delegates are going to be hearing these arguments and must decide who is the best candidate to challenge McCain in November; therefore, I am not certain at this time that the winner of the most pledged delegates will be the nominee. I do, however, feel that the DNC will choose the best candidate and not fragment the party, as has been discussed widely in the media.

SC voter   March 7th, 2008 2:33 pm ET

Since we cannot end the campaign short of a winner… it looks like something will have to happen to get a nominee .
1. Either the delegates will have to decide it, or
2. There’d be a revote, or
3. Hillary and Obama could make a deal agreeing to split the ticket!

Hillary would take the Presidency since she won Florida fairly and squarely … and Obama would have VP.
By 2012, he could run for Pres having experience in his currently meager resume.

Mark - Asheville, NC   March 7th, 2008 2:33 pm ET

Jack;
With the Supreme Court balance at stake, I hope the pledged AND the super delegates will realize that we MUST beat McCain. With Clinton and especially Obama having little hope of doing this, I really hope that at Denver enough delegates will come to their senses, and nominate either John Edwards, or Joe Biden - two excellent candidates who could fairly easily beat McCain.

Republicans nominate to WIN, why can’t we do that, for a change???

Janet - Houston, TX   March 7th, 2008 2:34 pm ET

A week ago I would have said that the winner of the pledged delegates would be the nominee. Now, I’m not sure. Hllary will hold her breath and throw a tantrum until the Michigan and Florida delegates are given to her. She will force a good and honest man to compromise his ideals in order to defend himself against lies and attacks. She will hand over the election to the other party in order to keep it away from someone she sees as an upstart. How can you compete against someone who has so little regard for our democratic values? For the first time in my 57 years, I finally had hope that our government was getting nobler but now I find it may all be too late. Just how monsterous is that?

By the way, why isn’t more being said on the news about the report from Canada that says it was the Clinton campaign and not the Obama campaign that gave the old “wink-wink” regarding NAFTA?

W B in Las Vegas   March 7th, 2008 2:34 pm ET

I am not confident about these so called “super delegates” at all. from what I have seen so far they are all political hacks that will vote for whoever will benefit them personally.

IF they overrule the “pledged delegates”, then there will be a backlash that probably will give the election to John McCain.

once again the Democrates will have “snatched defeat from the jaws of victory” just like in 2000 and 2004.

Dylan from Davenport, IA.   March 7th, 2008 2:35 pm ET

Extraordinarily confident. The Democratic Party isn’t exactly the best at handling touchy situations, but they aren’t stupid enough to commit political suicide. The math is alot simpler than they pretend it is: More Votes = The Majority, The Majority = Democracy.

Susannah, Arlington, TX   March 7th, 2008 2:36 pm ET

Unfortunately, not that confident. Although the Democratic Party would be smart to have that be the case - when was the Democratic Party known for being smart? Instead, they will allow Clinton to use Rovian tactics to secure the nomination, the press will continue to take all its notes from the Clinton campaign conference calls and press releases, and young people will feel alienated from a party which has already done nothing to secure their loyalty.

Randy Porter Mo.   March 7th, 2008 2:36 pm ET

I`m not confident at all. The whole system needs an overhaul. What the Democratic Party is telling people is that they don`t think the American voter is smart enough to pick a nominee. They put the super delegate system in place to insure that the big wigs in the party could still override the people if we don`t pick who they want. The current system leaves the door wide open for corruption at it`s best. It`s an isult to the voters, and will only turn more people away from the party. I personally don`t want Obama to get the nomination, but if he wins the popular vote, and has the most pledged delegates, then he should get the nomination. The whole super delegate thing is a way to inflate egoes, and keep anyone outside of the upper crust circle in their insignificte place. We as a country should be asamed of this non-democratic process.

Anne, Detroit   March 7th, 2008 2:36 pm ET

I have little confidence, nor do I want confidence. I thought the purpose of the super delegates is to consider many, many facets of the situation, of which number of pledged delegates and popular vote are only two, and vote accordingly. If the super delegates consider only the number of pledged delegates, nothing changes and what would be the purpose in having super delegates? Hillary won handily in Mass., but can you see Kennedy and Kerry voting for Hillary? The same can be said for other states in which Obama won. Let the super delegates do their jobs without interference from the media and political hacks.

rbrannan   March 7th, 2008 2:37 pm ET

Superdelegates needn’t decide the nomination. Florida’s Primary should be recognized, as is, and those votes/delegates should be awarded as is because both candidates were on the ballot and neither campaigned there. Both were on the playing field/both were in the game. Howard Dean (an Obama supporter) says this wouldn’t be fair/ a disadvantage to Obama because Clinton had name recognition there. Floridians aren’t that inept to not know what’s going on in the rest of the U.S. At the time of Florida’s Primary, there had already been many democratic debates and Obama had already won prior states. To appease Dean’s mind set, Michigan should redo their Primary as a caucus so that Clinton has the disadvantage there–as proven by the Texas 2-step because Clintons working class and senior base are limited by a 2hour caucus framework. All would be fair, taxpayers wouldn’t be paying millions to redo a Florida Primary that both candidates were equally in, and by the time Puerto Rico votes, Superdelegates wouldn’t be necessary! 50 state Democracy! RB in PA

Linda in Florida   March 7th, 2008 2:38 pm ET

Jack, that’s easy — not at all. Nowadays, the popular vote doesn’t mean a thing. We saw it in 2000 and we are going to see it again!

Tammie   March 7th, 2008 2:40 pm ET

They won’t matter.
Here in Michigan the wealthy republicans are donating to the Clintons & offering to help pay for a re do. The Republicans will be the ones who decide who our Democratic canidiate is.

Tammie, MI

Michael   March 7th, 2008 2:40 pm ET

Jack,

I am about as confident in the pledged delegates selecting our nominee as I am in Hillary’s post February 5th Super Tuesday campaign strategy. Which is to say we might as well hang a “Mission Accomplished” sign above her head and brace for another four years of McBush.

Michael, New York

Dave from Mission Viejo,California   March 7th, 2008 2:41 pm ET

I have no confidence that the Democrats will respect the views of the voters. They didn’t after the 2006 Congressional elections, when they were returned to power in the House and Senate to end the war in Iraq. You have to understand Jack that the leaders of the two parties are much, much smarter than the rest of us. Plus, we all have very short attention spans and memories. By the time November rolls around we’ll just be proud and happy to cast our votes for whoever the party leaders decide is best for us.

L. Curry   March 7th, 2008 2:42 pm ET

WHY SENATOR CLINTON SHOULD BOW OUT NOW:
It’s a fact that Senator Clinton does not have enough popular votes to catch up to or lead against Senator Obama. Polls show that when Senator Clinton is matched against John McCain, she loses but in those same polls, Obama wins. But as she has said, she’s a fighter.

Unfortunately Senator Clinton has her sights focused on the wrong foe, a democratic candidate instead of the real one, John McCain. By continuing to fight Obama, she will allow John McCain to campaign freely and unhindered until well into the fall. During this time he plans to solidfy his party’s base and travel abroad. This will help him to appear presidential and further bolster his “foreign policy experience” image. To allow this to occur is to underestimate the Republican party machine which may turn out to be a fatal mistake.

Senator Clinton is also pushing for the votes (or another primary) in Florida and Michigan. The governors of those two states unfortunately chose to flout the rules and there are consequences to those kinds of actions. There is also a lot of concern about the disenfranchised voters in those states however the majority of voters in those primaries were republican because the democrats knew the vote wouldn’t count. The vote in those states leaned toward Clinton but those republican voters also knew that people will choose McCain over Clinton, coincidence? I think not! How do you think all those supposedly disenfranchised voters will feel when John McCain gets in the White house with Hillary’s help?

Senator Clinton is also leaning on the superdelegates to abandon the will of the people and the popular vote and defect to her camp. We all know that having a president who is willing to push their agenda at the expense of all others is a dangerous thing. We are living with the results of having a president who is willing to lie, cheat, and steal an election and that result is the war in Iraq!

Democratic party leaders need to wake up before it’s too late. They need to pull Senator Clinto aside, thank her for her valiant effort and ask her to graciously step down for the greater good. We all know that Senator Obama can unite the democrats and this nation and should be afforded the opportunity and necessary time to do it. 4 months after the seemingly endless primaries is not long enough. If this circus isn’t stopped, we are all at risk of having another 4-8 years of the same old leadership and failing policies in Washington.

Les Young Oklahoma   March 7th, 2008 2:42 pm ET

I am not confident at all if the Clintons can steal the Democratic nomination they will and will go to any ,means to do so. I saw a story last night that stated that the Clintons were the one who contacted Canadia on NAFTA. I have been a faith full Clinton supporter but will no longer believe anything they say. If they can”t win on the issues they need to get the H out.

THERESA   March 7th, 2008 2:42 pm ET

I don’t get it. If Obama think that what Clinton is throwing at him is the kitchen sink what chance does he have against McCain. The Rezko and NAFTA issues are things the media should have been bring up on their own and just proves Clinton theory that the media are soft on Obama. The only other story is the 3a.m. commercial and if Obama thinks that is the kitchen sink he’s in big trouble come Nov. Since the Texas primary Obama’s playing nice has consisted of calling Clinton a monster and accusing her of calling the people of Mississippi second class citizens. Way to play nice Obama.

Rosemarie Stone   March 7th, 2008 2:43 pm ET

I am confident that the Democratic National Committee will listen to the will of the people and nominate the candidate who has the most pledged delegates. That is how democracy was formed by our forefathers. To delineate from this criteria would put the party in grave jeopardy. This would cause turmoil and strife among the democratic population and would weaken the party if they go against the will of the people. If this does not happen, I would picket the Convention until my voice is heard.

Rosemarie Stone
Vero Beach, FL

Chris, Olean, NY   March 7th, 2008 2:43 pm ET

Jack, I’m not at all confident that super delegates will choose the nominee based on who has the most pledged delegates. I realize several supers have said that’s how it should be, but the Clintons, and I say that deliberately, are involved and they will do whatever they can to get Hillary the nomination. Unfortunately, they are so self-absorbed that I don’t believe either has considered the potential effect on the Democratic Party. I think they are willing to lose the election to win the nomination.

Terrance   March 7th, 2008 2:43 pm ET

If the candidate with the most pledged delegates does not win the democratic nomination the Democratic Party will have a revolt on it hands from the party’s base. Unless Hillary runs the table with landslide victories in every remaining state she can not catch Obama in pledged delegates. If you think Florida and Michigan are upset image how African Americans will feel if they are disenfranchised by the so called super delegates who cast their vote for Hillary in spite of the votes cast by the districts they represent. Those super delegates will have hell to pay when election time come around. By the way despite what your experts say if Hillary wins this nomination by throwing temper tantrums and using disingenuous innuendo the base of the Democratic Party by and large will not vote for her.

Sharon, Langley, British Columbia   March 7th, 2008 2:44 pm ET

I’m reasonably confident that’s the way it’ll work.

Hillary Clinton is so annoyed that she wasn’t annointed like she thought she would be. If she can’t get along with a fellow Democrat, what are the chances of her getting along with Republicans enough to get the damned job done? That is what’s going to be required and this, I’m not reasonably confident about.

I hope every delegate considers this when the time comes to make a choice.

Yolande R. Banres   March 7th, 2008 2:44 pm ET

At the risk of destroying the american faith in the democratic process, the right to vote, that voice of the people… the pledge delegates should decided the Democratic nominee…keeping the process fair not to suggest that it is simple and be careful with Michigan and Florida, anything other than holding their feet to the fire would suggest that it is o.k. to make and break rules to get what we want

Damian   March 7th, 2008 2:44 pm ET

Jack, you forgot to mention Florida and Michigan. It is inevitable that both those states will be put in play before the convention. The Superdelegates will have to play a role, but it will greatly be diminished when the DNC finally gets over it and give Florida and Michigan what they deserve.

The fact is both candidates will be strong against a third Bush term. They will be strongest together though.

Frederick of Killeen Texas   March 7th, 2008 2:45 pm ET

Pledged delegates should decide the nominee. Super delegates should stay out of it since they play by the loyalty rule instead of the will of the people. If Clinton or Obama cheat to win, or win by super delegates instead of pledged delegates my vote will go to McCain or Nader. Since Hillary wants the delegates seated for Michigan and Florida she should feel comfortable with splitting Michigan and Florida’s delegates evenly between her and Obama. I hope she dosen’t want them seated so that her pledged delegates are increased, I have that suspicion since she is claiming victory for Michigan and Florida,….oh how unfair that is. I hate cheaters. My vote equates to many family member votes…..Play the game fair if the democrats want my votes..

Kevin- Webster, MA   March 7th, 2008 2:46 pm ET

Where the Clintons are involved nothing would surprize me. If the pledeged delegates can nominate Hillary then yes, otherwise She will use super delegates,, the point spread of the Giants, or whatever formula will let her win.

Martin Law   March 7th, 2008 2:46 pm ET

Jack

We all know the Democratic nominee is going to be picked by in a dark back room and a cheque book full of high level positions for the supporters. Who ever writes the biggest cheque will win.

Toronto, Canada

Josh   March 7th, 2008 2:47 pm ET

I rather it be the people that decide than the delegates. I am pretty confident that we will have a nominee for the party. Because Jack, we haven’t finished all the primaries yet. By summer, we will be an better idea of who is the nominee. So we Democrats can focus on beating the tar out of the Republicans this election year.

John from Chicago   March 7th, 2008 2:48 pm ET

I dont care wins the democratic nomination because I will vote for whomever is chosen. I will NEVER vote for John McCain because he is pure evil.

Jed from Chico, CA   March 7th, 2008 2:49 pm ET

I’m fairly confident that whomever is ahead in both pledged delegates and popular vote, as long as it is by a comfortable margin (let’s say 5%, for the sake of argument). But then there is that glaring footnote: Florida and Michigan.

Let’s say Hillary’s dreams come true and Howard Dean throws the rulebook out and FL & MI get their delegates seated in full and as they voted in January.

Nothing Much Changes!

The ‘Magic Number’ then grows from 2024 to 2207. If Obama and Clinton split the remaining delegates 50/50 and Florida & Michigan are seated as they voted Obama is STILL AHEAD in pledged delegates 1750 to 1710. Keep in mind that Michigan will send 55 ‘uncommitted’ delegates that could very well go to Obama. Even given this very Clinton-friendly scenario, all either one of them needs is 50% of the Superdelegates to get to the new ‘magic number’ of 2207.

No matter how you slice it unless one of them drops out it all comes down to Colorado in August.

Al Hilton Palmdale, California   March 7th, 2008 2:50 pm ET

When they quit fighting over who has the bigger cookie, they should simplify their system (after the election is over by the way) so that they can focus more on their issues. The rest of the delegates will somehow ’surprise’ us again, and complicate the matter. Then we will revote, and recount, and when the smoke clears, one of them will make it, the other won’t. I doubt we will hear anymore about the ‘dream team’.

Sylvester   March 7th, 2008 2:50 pm ET

Jack:
Only Democrats know how to mess an election cycle that could have put them in the White House with little effort. Why in the world do you need almost 800 corrupt superdelegates? It should be all about pledged delegates (that is, those decided by the voters) and if a tie breaker was ever required, then 3 superdelegates can break the tie: say the DNC Chair, Democratic House Leader and Democratic Senate Leader (at present, Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid). What is the purpose of all these 800 do-nothing loud mouths?

Joy-Morrisville, NC   March 7th, 2008 2:50 pm ET

Not at all! Hillary and Bill will pull out all the stops, that we know for sure! There’s not a chance she will bow out without a fight. She and Bill want their term in the whitehouse, they aren’t concerned about the party, that’s for sure. Jack’s book, It’s getting ugly out there” is a fairy tale compared what Hillary and Bill will try to pull off!!

A.Brawley/Roanoke, VA   March 7th, 2008 2:50 pm ET

If it is Obama who has the most pledged delegates Clinton will yell foul and call on her old Washington establishment to hand her the nomination. Why is it taking so long to count the votes for the caucus held in Texas? My guess is that it a political strategy to give Clinton the edge. It would not look good for Obama to win and have an even bigger jump. It looks like it smells - Rotten to the core! Clinton and the old establishment are crooked. I would not put anything past the Clintons. Their campagain seens to get away with all the negative attacks. Guess it pays to be a Clinton. The media does not call for Clintons to apologize or to even release your tax returns. How about that!

Joe in DE   March 7th, 2008 2:50 pm ET

It does not appear that anyone will get enough pledged degelates to claim the nomination. There seems to be some rationale that unpledge and superdelegate don’t get a viote. Remember, the rules are the rules - what good for MI & FL is good for counting delegates.

Dan Dallas, TX   March 7th, 2008 2:51 pm ET

The Democratic Party has a lot of things going for it. It has strong support among young voters (signifying a strong future). It has two strong, popular candidates in a very tight and interesting race for the nominantion. It has the advantage of possible voter backlash against the party of an extremely unpopular President. I can’t see them risking all of that by going against the will of the vote.

Chuck in Eugene Oregon   March 7th, 2008 2:51 pm ET

Hopefully the DNC superdelegates will follow the will of the pledged delegates and if they are equal then the popular vote. Either way the DNC has a problem. Some how the Florida and Michigan thing needs to be settled. There are only three ways it can go.. a complete New Vote, or Cacus or an even across the board split of the pledged delegates. They can not go on the actual votes because Obama was not on the Michigan ballot. Secondly contrary to Florida’s Govenor calling for the votes to stand as is, this is insane. Reports from both states are that hundreds of thousands did not bother to vote because they were told their vote would not count. It stand that there are only three solutions there, and no matter the cost, if the candidates want a fair election then they should split the cost with the DNC and the states, or the DNC should suck it up and foot the bill. It seems to me that with the candidates and the DNC’s ability to raise money they should be able to replace these funds quick enough.

John from Tennessee   March 7th, 2008 2:52 pm ET

It will probably have to be decided at the convention. No one will have
enough delegates to put them over the top. Since Obama continues to
stay and smear Hillary and the good deeds she has peformed for the country she has ALWAYS loved, and been PROUD of, It will be a tight finish, but I am confident the delegates will choose the best one
HILLARY 08.

William   March 7th, 2008 2:52 pm ET

Minutia seems to acceptable in this political contest. With that allowance, I ask: “With respect to the competition for delegates in Wyoming and Mississippi, and considering the importance of momentum, do you think that the delay in counting the Texas caucas vote is helping Clinton, or Obama.”

Larry from Georgetown, Tx   March 7th, 2008 2:52 pm ET

Unfortuantely the pledged delegates, that’s us, will not decide the nomination. The devil with the red dress and her finger pointing husband had this all planned in the 90’s and appointed many of these people that owe them. I really don’t know how they sleep without taking drugs, good idea have a drug test for politicians, just like athletes. “Just think about it.”

Haddrosaurus Fulki , Haddonfield, NJ   March 7th, 2008 2:53 pm ET

The Pledged Delegates will not be the factor in selecting the Democratic Nominee… that honor is for the SUPER DELEGATES… see ELECTION 2000 FOR DETAILS…

Haddrosaurus Fukli , Haddonfield , NJ

Mary   March 7th, 2008 2:53 pm ET

Hi jack,
I remeber the Kerry, Bush, and I think we are coming up to that again. Remeber th Clinton will do everything in there power to gain the set that think is rightfully their but Obama is change and pople don’t like change, There is something about change that puts fear in every one. Ido hope that the people stop leting these candidate {the Clinton} put fear in there hearts.

JoAnne   March 7th, 2008 2:53 pm ET

About as confident as I am that pigs fly.

If Clinton and Obama continue to eat away at each other, it’s a moot question. McCain will fill the void and be our next president

Claudia Rose Aguilar   March 7th, 2008 2:54 pm ET

I hope the super delegates will determine the candidate. State caucases are not representative of the citizen “voters” of a state, especially the one I attended here in Texas. Instead of the free option to vote ones belief, many people are subject to manipulation and intimidation. In addition, many people cannot make it to “caucases”
so it is only a few who determine state delegates. This is not the democratic way we should be electing the most inportant leader of our country and, in some cases, the world.

Amy in Woodstock, NY   March 7th, 2008 2:55 pm ET

Let’s just say this if Barack Obama, who has the most pledged delegates, does not make it as the democratic nominee then get ready for a Republican president. And no elected politician superdelegate should consider any backroom deals that are counter to the leader of pledged delegates. If so, they seriously need to remember their constituents are voters too come re-election time.

Barack Obama has the most popular votes and the most delegates. The people have spoken higher than the special interests with their donations, involvement and votes for change. But if Obama is not the nominee for President, I will not vote to put Hillary Clinton, the most secretive politician in America today, back in the White House. All of my friends and family have sworn the same. American’s are demanding transparency and change.

Walter Harris Gavin   March 7th, 2008 2:55 pm ET

Hopefully after this year’s primary debacle the Dems will scrap this whole “super” delegate idea. In a democracy it should be the voters who decide elections. Let these so called super delegates vote in their own districts or caucus like other citizens. Remember they get to vote TWICE if they chose to vote in their respective primaries. Why should their vote count any more than any other citizen?

It’s just another example of how un-democratic Washington politicians can be. They don’t really trust the voter’s judgment so they try to game the system. Enough already. It’s like that dumb Electoral College. The founders for all their platitudes didn’t really trust the citizenry that’s why we ended up with Bush in 2000 and you see how great a decision that was, DUH.

Since you are not obliged to follow the will of the people, the pledged delegates, why wait until the end of the process. Declare. Show some “leadership” and backbone. Don’t wimp out. Tell the voters who YOU think will make the best president NOW. The voters can then have the benefit of your “wise” council as they make up their own minds.

Message to all uncommitted SUPER DELGATES show us your S. Declare Now!

Joyce   March 7th, 2008 2:55 pm ET

I hope Hillary is happy….the republican conservatist are happy throwing her their vote to Hillary…McCain doesn’t need it and they would rather go up against Hillary then Barack. They don’t like McCain but Republican is their main goal. Joyce, VT

Mark - Gilbert, AZ   March 7th, 2008 2:55 pm ET

No - Hillary is going to throw a temper tantrum and the Clinton’s will buyout any supers they can starting now and on to the convention until she’s the nominee.

Dave in NH   March 7th, 2008 2:56 pm ET

As confident as the waiter will bring me my food or not get paid.

Jennifer WA   March 7th, 2008 2:57 pm ET

I think the super-delegates will end up loosely mirroring the popular vote anyway. As for FL and MI, why not just count the FL delegates as half the value like what the republicans did there? MI needs to either re-do their vote or else accept the party’s rules. I think that even if Clinton included the delegates from MI and FL, she’d still be behind Obama.

Obama will come out of this as the democratic nominee but Hillary will have bloodied him up quite a bit. The more I think about it though, the more I think that the old saying, “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” will fit well with Obama.

Jennifer, Washington

Bob   March 7th, 2008 2:57 pm ET

Jack, Hillary will get the nomination, period. In the end the Clinton machine will get its way regardless of how many pledged delegates she has at the time. She and her surrogates will whine and cajole and play dirty tricks…and the press will continue to be afraid to call them on it. As a result, young people will become discouraged by the election process and America will continue to be seen as no better than a third world country when it comes to the so-called democratic process.

Kirk (Apple Valley, MN)   March 7th, 2008 2:57 pm ET

It doesn’t matter. Obama doesn’t stand a snow balls chance in hell of beating John McCain and getting elected if he is the Democratic nominee for POTUS. Obama’s inexperience will be the key item that McCain and the Republican machine will hammer on and it will sink into the voters. Hillary is the one that can actually beat McCain. She has taken all of the “big” states with the most electoral votes while Obama has taken most of the smaller states with the fewest electoral votes. If Obama is nominated, the people that voted for him in the primary season will be sorely disappointed come the morning of November 4th.

L.M.,Arizona   March 7th, 2008 2:57 pm ET

There are two great candidates if the super delegates have to decide I think they should pick the candidate they think will win in November. There will be no disenchantment except in the news media.

Richard Sternagel   March 7th, 2008 2:58 pm ET

Jack, if Obama continues his primary wins,there would no way for Clinton to catch him! Obama will continue to increase his pledged delegates! The Super delegates would become a non issue under this scenario! The Will of the People will be the deciding factor! Go Obama!

Kevin L   March 7th, 2008 2:58 pm ET

It appears that Hillary will do whatever she needs to to get the pledged delegates to help her win the election. Obama is to week to win. Whatever happens, this county is going down. We only have ourselves to blame. How in the world do you elect someone to office who is riddled with scandle.
I am not saying tha Obama is any better, but we keep doing this to ourselves. America needs to grow up. If I applied for a job and my personal history shows I had problems then I probably would not get that job.

So, why are so many people voting for hillary? This is just plain stupid. If she wins and the country goes futher down the black hole, who do you think Americans are going to blame? Hint: Look in the mirror.

Adele Lewis   March 7th, 2008 3:00 pm ET

I would like to be confident in the pledged delegate process to carry Obama to his rightful position as the Democratic Party nominee, but, being almost as cynical as Jack Cafferty, I am also confident that the Clintons will pull every dirty trick in the book to undermine this process. I have had utter disgust for the politics of the last 12 years, especially the Clintons’ last four years in the white House. What has happened to the collective memory of our people? This 55 years old, white female plans to vote for Obama because his words have inspired me to have hope again in the political process. He is a man who epitomizes truth and integrity. He, unlike the ever-changing Mrs. Clinton, does not always tell what we want to hear, but what we need to hear. If the Clintons undermine this process, then the Democrats will lose.

Ruby Coria, CA.   March 7th, 2008 3:01 pm ET

Jack, why not just ask “do we think Obama will be the Democratic nominee?” If the Obama wins by 100 more pledged the remaining 200 super need to count, 100 for The Hill (tide) 100 for Obama (winner) or the other way around. Like any game till everyone plays their last card.

Chanel from Boston   March 7th, 2008 3:01 pm ET

Jack,
I am concerned for the Democratic Party. If our votes were gonna determine who our nominee would be, the Clinton Campaign would have acknowledged that it is mathematically impossible for them to catch up and suspended the campaign. Obviously there will be some back room politics as usual going on and that is why she feels she still has a chance to win this thing…its very discouraging to a young voter..very discouraging.

James in Cape Coral, FL   March 7th, 2008 3:01 pm ET

Jack,
If your asking how much I trust the people in Washington to listen to the will of the majority the answer is none. Show me how this government has earned my trust. But I do think as long as the media and the people remain focused on this issue into Denver, there will be little chance these super delegates would spit in our faces to advance their own agenda.

Frederick   March 7th, 2008 3:01 pm ET

Jack, This is going to the convention. Obama will have to prove his claim of better judgement to make a deal with the Clinton camp. They must unite the party to succeed. If FL and MI re-vote or are counted in any way, then the delegates needed to nominate becomes 2162 not 2025. Right. 50-50 delegate splits comming down the home stretch and neither candidate reaches the mark. Do they? Superdelegates will make or break the strength of the party. Common sense and compromise. Who will show real leadership?

All the states should vote first!   March 7th, 2008 3:01 pm ET

Will pledged delegates decide the Democratic nominee?

Yes, if the citizens in ALL the states are denied the right to cast their vote with fear messages to stop the voting process now!

Everyone should be allowed to vote first. After that the “super delegates” should do what they are supposed to do: make their selection as well.

Cathy C.   March 7th, 2008 3:02 pm ET

To SC Voter - Wow you really did make an interesting comment. You wrote that Clinton should be on top of a split ticket because she won Florida?

Don’t you realize that Obama has won 27 states and Hillary has only won 14?

Don’t you realize that Obama has almost 100 MORE pledged delegate votes than Hillary.

I would mean on a split ticket OBAMA is on top

MIchael "C" in Lorton   March 7th, 2008 3:03 pm ET

Very confident. Obama has the lead in pledge delegates and the with remaining states holding their primaries, it apparent that he will hold on to that advantage. The super delegates will not support or vote the candidate that is contrary to the will of the voters……that would be political suicide for all of them. I believe that the political bosses will make an offer to Hillary that she cannot refuse…their jobs are also on the line. The American voters may forgive the super delegates if they vote to support Hillary, but believe me, they will not forget their names.

Carlos Torrado   March 7th, 2008 3:03 pm ET

To be completely honest, I’m as confident that the superdelagetes will vote in favor of the candidate with the most pledged delegate as I am confident in the Clinton’s lack of ambition for power. The Clinton’s will stop at nothing short of explaining what “is” is, in order to ’school” Barack Obama in how the real world works in DC. However, something tells me Obama is destined to lead our great nation into a new era of decency, transperancy in government and the restoration of our collective pride as a nation.

Elease   March 7th, 2008 3:03 pm ET

Jack,
It is apparent that Hillary Clinton will do anything and I mean anything to try and win the Democratic nomination. As a voter in a state who’s nominee has been made I am willing to be patient and wait for the rest of the States to let their voices be heard.
I am quite sure that the “Super Delegates” will follow the will of the people. Remember most of them are elected officials themselves and Democrats are notorious for taking names on those who betray them. So as long as their votes are publicized we should be okay. If they do not have to publicize their votes than it will be back-room politics as usual and Bill will call in every favor he ever made so Hillary wins this way.
The name of the game for the Clinton’s is not what is best for America but win at all costs.

Keith   March 7th, 2008 3:05 pm ET

How confident are you that the winner of the most pledged delegates in the primary season will become the Democratic nominee?

I’m not confident at all, Jack.

After seeing the “real” Hillary Clinton for the past few weeks now, I wouldn’t put anything past her, Bill, and their cronies to win the nomination.

And to think… At one time, I liked this lady and supported… I’ll say it:

She IS a monster.

Hillary is a a nauseating jerk. I’ve grown tired of her. Now make me resign!

Beth, Alabama   March 7th, 2008 3:05 pm ET

Jack,
I am confident that if Clinton leads in pledged delegates at the end of primary season, she will easily become the nominee with the help of superdelegates and the blessing of Obama. The problem is that Obama will likely have the lead in pledged delegates. With this scenerio Clinton conjures fuzzy logic to make us all think that big states and swing states are more important than simple democratic majority. If she gets the nomination with this or somehow seating FL/MI current delegates…or any other underhanded tactic, I don’t see Obama as VP on that ticket and you can bet Obama supporters will stay home, give McCain 4 years and hope Obama runs again in 2012.
Beth
Alabama

Greg in Leavenworth Kansas   March 7th, 2008 3:05 pm ET

It’s simple math: super delegates will determine the democratic nomination. It’s unlikely that either candidate will win enough delegates needed for the nomination prior to the Convention.

Just compare the current numbers and percentages of delegates awarded against the future number of delegates available in upcoming state primaries/caucauses. The delegate percentages for Barack and Hillary will remain relatively the same (Obama with 52%; Clinton with 48%) now that 75% of the states have completed their primaries/caucauses.

Barack would have to win approximately 70% of the future delegates to win the nomination or Hillary would have to win approximately 80% of the future delegates to win the nomination. Neither is likely at all.

The real question is: will the super delegates vote according to the popular vote?

Greg in Leavenworth Kansas

lee Marietta   March 7th, 2008 3:05 pm ET

Well i am not very confident. We are talking about politics here nothing is definate. Just like the weather changes so do politicians.

Bill Vorbec   March 7th, 2008 3:06 pm ET

Jack: March 7, 2008

Rules are rules. Neither candidate will reach the required number of delegates, “both” fall short. True, one may have more delegates then the other — but that is of little consequence.

Super delegates are free to exercise their politically savvy judgment and cast their support for whomever they choose, THAT’S THE RULES. State delegates are bound, Super delegates aren’t, and THAT’S THE RULL. The U.S. is not a DEMOCARY, IT’S A REPUBLIC. That’s in the pledge of allegiance to the flag. Frankly I’m suppressed people have forgotten that.

Bill

Michael   March 7th, 2008 3:07 pm ET

I’m entirely confident that the delegate leader will become the nominee. Superdelegates aren’t dummies. This election has revealed faces in a rather unknown part of the process. There are a lot of political futures at stake - they won’t go against the leader in the process, but they might go against the popular vote, if those two aren’t the same.

April in texas   March 7th, 2008 3:08 pm ET

I hope the Superdelegates do their homework and make the right decision on their selection. I would say go with the people / the majority rather than who may fund their pockets.

The FL MI goof should be just that and don’t let them get their way in the final decision which is what they were after to begin with.

Austin Texas

Jamie, Ohio   March 7th, 2008 3:09 pm ET

I wouldn’t necessarily say I am confident the pledged delegates will select the nominee, but I certaintly hope the nominee will represent the consituents votes. Barack Obama has won more states, and has more delegates, if the superdelegates decide on a nominee and go against the constituents, I think that will hurt the democratic party.

Rachel - Lexington, KY   March 7th, 2008 3:10 pm ET

There is NO way the delegates can be seated as is. Obama’s name wasn’t even on the ballot in MI. How on earth would that be “fair”. Its not. The funny thing is even without his name on the ballot, Hillary only got 55%….The other largest vote: UNCOMMITTED…meaning they are not for her. She only got 50% in FLA with Edwards getting 2nd. If Obama had campaigned in either state, she would have much fewer votes. So I say, let’s have a do-over - bring it on because I believe Obama will walk away with at least 50% of the delegates…lots of money down the drain for both states to make a point.

Betty   March 7th, 2008 3:10 pm ET

The Republicans are the ones who messed up the voting in Florida and Mich. It should be done again at their expense. Hillary will beat the sox off Obama. Give har a break, Jack. You media have given Obama a free ride. Gooooooooo Hillary!!!

Brian, Tamla, Fl   March 7th, 2008 3:10 pm ET

Jack,
Please, confident !!, this is politics, with Bill & Hilary Clinton in this election. We all know the HILLARYTRICKERY that will play on WE THE PEOPLE.

Your question is for the wishfull thinkers, you know the “puff the magic dragon”, kind.

Greg from Minneapolis   March 7th, 2008 3:11 pm ET

Alter’s column is a great piece for Obama backers, Jack! The only way Hillary can win is to scare up votes that overturn the will of the people and cause a civil war in the democratic party. Perhaps her campaign song should be Monster Math, er Mash!

Sabrina, Las Vegas, NV   March 7th, 2008 3:11 pm ET

Yes, the superdelegates will decide the who the next democratic nominee will be….

And, all I can state is, “let the back room dealings begin.” After all the pledge delegates, don’t matter, right?

sandy in Ohio   March 7th, 2008 3:12 pm ET

Jack, I would hope that the pledged delgates and the will of the people will prevail and we have Barack Obama as our Democratic nominee. However, since a lot of the people in the party think the rules should not apply, especially the Clintons, the maybe the super delgates will put Hillary in the drivers seat. If that happens,then I think a lot of democrats will vote for John McCain, because he calls himself a Republican while Hillary just acts like one.Enough is enough! Why do we insist of letting the Clintons make fools of us to the rest of the world? If super delegates snatch away this election along with lies and dirty tricks, then I am done with all the parties

Chidi   March 7th, 2008 3:12 pm ET

One would expect the candidate with the most delegates to clinch the nomination unless a few people at the helm decides to subvert the wish of the people thereby redefining the word democracy.
Atlanta, GA

Grant   March 7th, 2008 3:12 pm ET

Well I am very confident that the one with the most delegates will win this election. Hilary Clinton is a republican turn democrat through matrimonial alliance …. of course her last name is Bill Clinton and this is why she is still in this race. Super delegates should understand that a vote for HRC is a vote to stall the country as a whole. She compare her experience to John McCain experience. Clearly the same old same old ball gamer. Like Obama put it you cannot take the same old crew and expect a different result. We need change and the super delegates should consider the future of the party. If they want a 65+ majority they should gravitate toward Obama but if they want the same old fight of the nineties, well they better go with the same old characters but the reality is that we are watching.

F Johnson   March 7th, 2008 3:13 pm ET

Jack- Florida and Mich. are key to this issue. With a shorter field per say (2025 delegates required) Obama will need smaller percentage of remaining uncommitted Super Delegates as he runs out the clock nursing his lead as he and Hillary trade wins in these remaining primaries. I suspect Hillary would need a 250 - 150 split of remaining unpledged Supers. Unlikley since the political fallout from this obvious a robbery would resinate.
Now include Florida and Mich. you need over 2200 delegates to win. Assuming Hillary wins both and closes gap and the required split of remaining unpledged Supers is much more managable.
Under this scenerio the Supers could swing her way without taking tremendous heat.
Conclusion- The credentials commitee at Democratic Convention could end up as the REAL SUPER DELEGATES

Mike S., New Orleans, Louisiana   March 7th, 2008 3:13 pm ET

The pledged delegates will determine the nominee, but only after delegates from Michigan and Florida are recognized as the result of either new primaries or caucuses.

A nominee chosen chiefly by superdelegates will viewed as illegitimate will be dead on arrival in the November election.

Amy in Woodstock, NY   March 7th, 2008 3:13 pm ET

Hillary Clinton in her endorsement of John McCain over Barack Obama has shown how much she cares for democratic party unity in comparison to her own political ambitions. She is not “entitled” to be the nominee. She has not earned it.

The DNC needs to put a stop to this now and go ahead and stand behind the candidate with the most delegates. The voters are getting turned off by this. End it now so we can unite, Clinton and Obama supporters together as democrats, behind our true democratic Presidential nominee, Senator Barack Obama.

Paul, Michigan   March 7th, 2008 3:13 pm ET

If the superdelegates override the votes of the people the Democratic Party better start building some bunkers to hide in. There will be an outrage and it won’t be pretty.

Rex in Portland, Ore.   March 7th, 2008 3:13 pm ET

I’m thinking that Clinton will stop at nothing to get the nomination. She does have a lot of power, what with being a Washingnton insider lo these many many years, and she will not hesitate to call in all favors. Nor will she hesitate to spend additional millions on time consuming law suits, recounts, and whatever delaying tactics her well trained, well heeled lawyers can produce. That could very well cause a nominee candidate with fewer elective delegates to be named the Democrati party nominee - al long as it is Hillary.

The shame is the blindness of all of us. Shame on us for even thinking Clinton = change! People believe that, too. If she is annointed by the party the only thing that will changed will be the name on the letterheads.

mattT   March 7th, 2008 3:13 pm ET

If we look at all the states each candidate has won so far based on electorial votes, Hillary won all the big states and she is way ahead of electorial votes of 220+ to Obama’s 160+. This primary is all about who is more electable and the numbers clearly show Hillary is the one. If either candidates reaches the goal line and it’s a close race, Superdelegates should vote for the candidate who is more electable, and that’s Hillary.

Jerry   March 7th, 2008 3:13 pm ET

Jack

It doesn’t matter who has the most delegates the next President
will be chosen by 538 people we’ve never heard of, known as the l
Electoral College.
Just remember in the 2000 race Gore got 50,992,335 Votes
Bush got 50,445,156 Votes

Please America do the right thing this time.

Jerry (aka Jon Stewart of the Cafferty File)
Roselle, Illinois

Barb Canada   March 7th, 2008 3:14 pm ET

With all the embarrassing headlines for Obama on CNN.Com today I think it is possible for Mrs Clinton to gain the needed delegates depending on if Florida and Michigan is allowed! And to all those people who say it’s unfair to let those 2 States vote, is it anymore unfair than allowing Superdelegates to decide?

Susan from Twentynine Palms, CA   March 7th, 2008 3:14 pm ET

The Democratic Party has to base its Presidential nomination on the pledged delegates as determined by the legal primaries held across the country. After all, if our votes don’t count within our own party, how can the party expect us to cast them in the general election? (We learned in 2000 that they don’t necessarily count there.)

C. Farrell, Houston, Tx   March 7th, 2008 3:14 pm ET

A question of whether pledged delegates or superdelegates to determine the nominee leaves me with one opinion only, Hillary is running the show. It’s politics as usual and leaves me with zero confidence in either one.

Dan, NY   March 7th, 2008 3:14 pm ET

I am very confident. It would have to be a very large differential in the super delegate count to really make a difference and I don’t think that will happen. The count in that special group will remain as tight as it is the larger segment of the party and will likely be reflective of it. Even if the popular vote is close enough to make it possible for the supers to tilt the balance, that would only mean neither candidate would have had enough support for the election to be called anything close to a mandate. Should such a senario occur, how could anyone claim the Supers, by an equally close voting among their numbers, stole the election? Haven’t these leaders earned the right to be heard?

Carl Aabye   March 7th, 2008 3:15 pm ET

I will say yes only because it is a good possibility that it could well happen.

Grant   March 7th, 2008 3:15 pm ET

Jack,
We are watching those super delegates. If they overturn the voice of the people then the sour feeling that it will have around the world and America will backlash pretty hard. I am a hardcore democrat and a supporter of Barack Obama. If he end up with the most delegates and somehow those leaders overturn the voice of the people, i will start campaigning for John McCain.

David in Raleigh, NC   March 7th, 2008 3:15 pm ET

Hillary’s ego and ambitions are bigger than the Democrat Party. She will destroy the Democrat Party and the United States to get the Democrat Party nomination and ultimately the Presidency.

Tawana -IL   March 7th, 2008 3:16 pm ET

Jack,
This democratic party needs a major overhaul. Our process this time around seem really messed up. Here is how I see it…. The person with the most pledged delegates in June wins! The superdelegate cramp should be eliminated as they could alter what the people want. I think we should unite the party now, before we self destruct!!!!!! Hillary going negative… Obama playing too nice…
Only other option will be to have a joint ticket as silly as this sound but the President will have to be the one with the most pledged delegates.
Also, please update Obama’s superdelegate totals.
Thank you.

Deb in San Antonio, TX   March 7th, 2008 3:16 pm ET

Melvin, you said it right on the money. I am disgusted to see all the rheotic about the Clintons, as if the Clinton years were bad for us. Either those condemming are children or adolescents who have never had to pay taxes or dealt with the working people issues. This election is not about electing a cool guy who can mesmerize people with great speeches, but about what is best for our country. Hllary is in the ticket NOT Bill, so STOP, associating both and for Gods sake let the MOST electable and experience candidate be the one the Superdelegates should be looking at. Obama, is great, but he’s just not ready right now, maybe later, but NOT right now. If anybody would be like Bush it would be him, “a newcomer”, inexperienced, and having to be taught all the ropes of running a country. Theese are credentials Hillary is already familiarized with and she has proven that she has the know how and toughness we need to face all the issues including foreign country issues. Stop the childish Rheotics, and see the facts, once and for all. God help us!

Alfreda S. Wallace   March 7th, 2008 3:16 pm ET

I am not convinced at all that the winner of the most delegates will win the nomination. I have seen recently that the Clintons will do anything to win. I am sic