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How much faith do you put in polls?

How much faith do you put in polls?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

With more than five months to go before election day, there's one thing you can count on: the polls.

There will be polls. Lots and lots of polls.

Some of us in the media tend to hyperventilate about the latest polls, their significance, and what we can read into them. but it's worth remembering that sometimes, they're just numbers.

The Los Angeles Times has a smart piece that lays out some rules on how to be smart about the polls.

For starters, don't forget the limits of national polls.

While presidential elections are fought out state-by-state in the electoral college, most polls are nationwide. It's too expensive to keep polling all the battleground states individually.

So while national polls can be helpful, they may hide important changes at the state level.

Next up: don't obsess about small shifts in the horse-race numbers.

Small bounces in the polls for Pres. obama or Mitt Romney from week-to-week are likely a result of natural changes in the statistical sample. Instead - pay attention to what issues are moving voters.

Another hint: be skeptical of apparent big swings. They usually don't happen in the general election.

Also: don't mix apples and oranges.

Every polling organization does things a little bit differently, which could explain significant "shifts" in surveys done by different pollsters in the same state.

Lastly, this Los Angeles piece suggests it's wise not to set out looking for a poll that supports what you already think, "as the saying goes, some people use data the way a drunk uses a lamppost - for support rather than illumination."

Here’s my question to you: How much faith do you put in polls?

Tune in to the Situation Room at 5pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.

And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.

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Filed under: 2012 Election • Polls
Was it a mistake for Democrats to pick North Carolina for their convention?

Was it a mistake for Democrats to pick North Carolina for their convention?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

Right about now, Democrats are probably wishing they hadn't picked North Carolina as the site for this summer's convention.

When President Obama selected Charlotte, North Carolina, more than a year ago, it seemed like a smart way to double down on a state that propelled him to victory in 2008.

North Carolina hadn't gone to the Democrats since Jimmy Carter.

But things have gone downhill – fast – in the Tar Heel State for Democrats, and the list of problems seems endless.

For starters, North Carolina voters overwhelmingly approved a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage at the same time President Obama was saying he thinks it's a good idea.

Now gay rights activists want the convention moved out of North Carolina, practically impossible at this point.

Unemployment in North Carolina is 9.4%, far above the national average.

Plus, who dreamed this up? President Obama will give his convention speech in Bank of America Stadium. Perfect – not.

Then there are the unions, one of the Democrats' key voting blocs. They're angry and aren't in the mood to help fundraise.

That's because there are no unionized hotels in Charlotte. Also, North Carolina has the smallest proportion of union members and union membership in the country.

To top it all off, there are two sex scandals engulfing prominent North Carolina Democrats: the trial of former Sen. John Edwards and the ongoing investigation of the state party chair, David Parker.

The Obama political operation used to be better than this.

Here’s my question to you: Was it a mistake for Democrats to pick North Carolina for their convention?

Tune in to the Situation Room at 4pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.

And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.

Joe Biden: asset or liability for President Obama?

Joe Biden: asset or liability for President Obama?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

Joe Biden's recent gay marriage gaffe is only the latest example of the vice president stepping in it.

And some are starting to openly wonder if Biden is the best running mate for President Obama in what is shaping up to be a close contest against Mitt Romney.

Republicans are making a strategy of targeting Biden, following him closely on the campaign trail in the hopes that he slips up.

A source close to Romney tells Politico that Biden is "a ticking time bomb. Who the hell knows what he's going to say?"

And another Republican describes the veep as "the chink in the armor" - someone likely to commit unforced errors.

Biden's off-script moments are legendary, from describing then-candidate Obama as "clean" and "articulate" in an interview to calling Obama’s health care reform a "big f***ing deal" on mic.

But Democrats insist Biden is the best surrogate for the president. He connects with working class voters in a way that the sometimes aloof president can't.

Also, Biden is a great attack dog who goes after Romney in a way Obama might not want to. Just yesterday Biden said Romney's time in private equity didn't qualify him for the White House any more than being a plumber would. Gotta love it.

Meanwhile if you listen carefully, the calls for a Vice President Hillary Clinton keep getting louder.

Clinton's approval numbers are through the roof, and some suggest that with Romney closing the gender gap and gaining among women, Obama should dump Biden for Clinton on the ticket.

It seems like a remote possibility, but stranger things have happened in politics.

Here’s my question to you: Joe Biden: asset or liability for President Obama?

Tune in to the Situation Room at 4pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.

And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.

How damaging is the Catholic Church's Obamacare lawsuit for the president?
FILE PHOTO: The Sistine Chapel in Vatican City

How damaging is the Catholic Church's Obamacare lawsuit for the president?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

The Catholic Church is suing President Obama for violating the freedom of religion that is guaranteed under the U.S. Constitution.

In what's being called the largest legal action of its kind, 43 separate Catholic institutions filed lawsuits in a dozen different federal courts this week.

They are challenging the federal mandate in President Obama's health care law that requires employers to cover contraception in their employees' health plans.

These Catholic groups include the University of Notre Dame, the Catholic University of America, the archdioceses of New York and Washington - along with those serving Dallas, Pittsburgh and St. Louis.

The lawsuits say that the health care law violates the First Amendment guarantee of religious liberty.

The Obama Administration tried to smooth things over with the church when the issue first bubbled over.

As a compromise, they said insurance companies would have to provide contraception for employees who wanted it - so Catholic employers could avoid directly providing birth control.

But that wasn't good enough for the church.

So far, the White House isn't commenting on these lawsuits, although one official told The Wall Street Journal that they're still trying to work things out with Catholic leaders: "Lawsuits or no lawsuits, our doors remain open."

Experts are split over whether these lawsuits will succeed, but either way it can't be helpful for the president in an election year.

For those keeping track, President Obama has managed to anger both the black churches - over his support of gay marriage - and the Catholic Church over birth control.

Here’s my question to you: How damaging is the Catholic Church's Obamacare lawsuit for the president?

Tune in to the Situation Room at 5pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.

And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.

Are you better off now than you were three and a half years ago?

Are you better off now than you were three and a half years ago?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

It's the economy again, stupid; and this time around it just might sink President Barack Obama's re-election chances.

A new poll shows the president and Mitt Romney locked in a dead heat over who could better fix the economy, the top issue on voters' minds.

The Washington Post/ABC News Poll shows Obama with a three-point lead over Romney if the election were held today – 49% to 46%. But on handling the economy, the two are tied at 47%.

Despite the recent hoopla over other issues ranging from birth control to gay marriage, more than half of Americans say the economy will decide their vote. Issues such as health care, taxes and the federal deficit only rank in the single digits.

Late in the campaign in 1980, Ronald Reagan famously asked Americans: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?"

Turns out they weren't. There was a sudden 10-point swing in the closing days of the campaign, and Reagan defeated the incumbent Jimmy Carter in a landslide.

So how about in 2012? Some 30% of those surveyed say they are worse off financially today than when Obama took office in January 2009, only 16% say they are better off. This might make Obama-land nervous.

Obama's numbers on this question resemble those of George H.W. Bush. He lost his 1992 re-election bid in a rough economy.

However it's not all bad news for Obama. The poll shows voters are evenly split on who could better create jobs, and the president tops Romney on the question of who better understands people's economic problems.

Yet at the end of the day, many Americans might look in the mirror and ask themselves this question.

Here’s my question to you: Are you better off now than you were three and a half years ago?

Tune in to the Situation Room at 4pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.

And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.

Why don't most Americans take all their vacation time?

Why don't most Americans take all their vacation time?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

With Memorial Day weekend - and the unofficial start to summer - just around the corner, many Americans have no vacation time in sight.

A recent study shows 57% of working Americans had unused vacation time at the end of last year.

And most of them had about 11 days left over, or nearly 70% of their allotted time off. Who takes only 30% of their vacation?

Well, one of the biggest reasons people skip their vacation is because they feel like they have too much work. Others say they can't afford to travel - no surprise in this economy. And still others say they are afraid to take time off from work in an unstable job market, also not surprising with unemployment stuck above 8%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. plays by different rules than most other developed countries when it comes to vacation. The law here doesn't require companies to offer any paid vacation to employees.

Nevertheless the average American worker gets 13 paid days off. Compare that with Italy, where the average worker gets 42 days off. In France, it’s 37 days off.

And guess what? Nearly 90% of the French use all of their vacation time. Insert your own joke here.

Experts say a lot of this is cultural. Many of these countries also have strong labor unions. Some European cities, such as Paris, practically shut down for part of the summer when everyone goes on vacation.

As for Americans, the trend is for people to take long weekends instead of one- or two-week vacations.

It's understandable that people are worried to leave the office for too long in our shaky economy; but it does make it harder to recharge your batteries and get a mental break from work.

Here’s my question to you: Why don't most Americans take all their vacation time?

Tune in to the Situation Room at 5pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.

And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.

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Filed under: On Jack's radar • United States • Vacation
Obama W.H. change official biography pages of past presidents?

Obama W.H. change official biography pages of past presidents?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

President Barack Obama is under fire for adding his own policy plugs to the official biographies of past presidents on the White House website.

Here's how it works: The White House added blurbs to the end of these biographies. These "Hey, did you know?" factoids appear on nearly every president's bio page going back to Calvin Coolidge.

For example:

"In a June 28, 1985, speech, Reagan called for a fairer tax code, one where a multimillionaire did not have a lower tax rate than his secretary. Today, President Obama is calling for the same with the Buffett Rule."

These added links plug everything from Obama’s health care overhaul to Social Security, Medicare and the repeal of don't ask, don't tell.

Republicans are having a field day with this.

The RNC created a hysterical "Obama in History" website. It shows the president as part of other historical events like the moon landing and the Declaration of Independence and with historical figures such as Albert Einstein, Richard Nixon and Elvis.

The White House insists that the biographies themselves weren't changed. They tell Fox News they "simply added links at the bottom of each page." They say this is a commonly used Internet practice to encourage people to explore further.

Maybe so.

However, one expert tells ABC News that while these additions didn't "cross the line" by changing the presidential biographies, the White House could have made it clearer that they weren't part of the official White House presidential biographies.

Here’s my question to you: Is it appropriate for President Obama to change the official biography pages of past presidents on the White House website?

Tune in to the Situation Room at 4pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.

And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.

Florida lowers passing test grade after students' scores drop?

Florida lowers passing test grade after students' scores drop?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

Yet another sign that our education system is failing:

Florida is lowering the passing grade on the writing portion of a standardized test.

Students' 2012 scores plunged on the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test writing exam.

Only 27% of fourth graders scored a passing grade of 4 - out of a possible 6.

Last year 81% of fourth graders passed. Eighth and 10th graders had similar declines in their scores.

So the state Board of Education decided to change the test's passing score to a 3 - from a 4. Presto. Suddenly the number of kids who passed was about the same as last year.

Critics say by manipulating test results, Florida is covering up problems in the system. It has also reignited an ongoing debate over using standardized test scores to make important education decisions.

The state education commissioner defends the decision, saying it "helps to correct the process, not the results."

Schools and parents were told this was coming. Florida announced last summer there would be tougher grading for the writing exam - with more focus on spelling, grammar and punctuation. In the past, those issues had been graded with "leniency."

State officials say they may not have communicated those changes well to school districts and teachers.

It kind of makes you wonder how Florida graded these writing exams before the increased focus on little things like spelling and grammar.

Here’s my question to you: What does it say about U.S. education if Florida lowered the passing grade on a standardized test after students' scores dropped?

Tune in to the Situation Room at 5pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.

And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.</strong5

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Filed under: Education • Florida • On Jack's radar
Is former President Carter an effective weapon in Mitt Romney's campaign against President Obama?

Is former President Carter an effective weapon in Mitt Romney's campaign against President Obama?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

Mitt Romney is hoping Jimmy Carter can help him win the White House.

The likely Republican nominee has been comparing President Barack Obama to the former Democratic president on the campaign trail.

For example, when Romney was asked if he would have approved the bin Laden raid, he answered "even Jimmy Carter would have given that order."

And when talking about the economy, Romney described the Obama White House as "the most anti-small business administration... probably since Carter."

For many, the name alone evokes an incompetent, liberal commander-in-chief and a time of recession, inflation, unemployment, high taxes and gas prices, more government and a sort of national malaise..

And, as Politico points out, by framing yourself as Carter's enemy, you can try to make yourself Ronald Reagan. Brilliant. If it works.

Meanwhile Michael Barone suggests in a column on "Real Clear Politics" that the 2012 election could mirror what happened in the 1980 race between Carter and Reagan. There was a late break away from the incumbent that year.

Jimmy Carter actually led Ronald Reagan in the polls for much of the race. His job rating was kept higher by attempts to free the Iran hostages even though voters were unhappy with the economy and other issues.

But during a debate just days before the election, Reagan famously asked: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" Suddenly the polls took a 10 point shift in Reagan's favor. He won in a landslide.

Barone suggests that despite economic concerns and opposition to Mr. Obama's policies, voters might be keeping his ratings artificially high for fear of rejecting the first black president. They might change their support to Romney at the last minute.

Here’s my question to you: Is former President Carter an effective weapon in Mitt Romney's campaign against President Obama?

Tune in to the Situation Room at 4pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.

And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.

Should drones be used to spy on Americans?

Should drones be used to spy on Americans?

FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

Drones aren't just for fighting the war on terror in the Middle East anymore - they might be watching you.

As more and more of these unmanned aircraft pop up over U.S. soil, they may be used to spy on Americans.

There is an Air Force document that says if unmanned drones accidentally capture surveillance footage of Americans, they can keep the information for up to 90 days and analyze it. Where is that in the Constitution?

The U.S. military and the government aren't supposed to conduct surveillance of Americans on U.S. soil without their consent, but if they accidentally capture you on video, that's OK.

They can apparently hang on to that material to determine if you are a terrorist.

There's no question that spying on Americans without a warrant could, and should, raise some serious red flags. But when you allow something like the Patriot Act, the law of unintended consequences is likely to follow.

Make no mistake, drone use is expanding on the home front.

Regulators have approved the use of drones for dozens of law enforcement agencies and universities, including the Department of Homeland Security and local police departments.

These drones can be used for law enforcement, firefighting, news coverage and monitoring wildlife. Or to spy on American citizens.

Lawmakers from both parties have asked the FAA to answer questions about privacy, to make sure the public knows these things are being used and why.

Experts predict the use of drones domestically will increase as more of the technology is brought back from places like Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen.

Here’s my question to you: Should drones be used to spy on Americans?

Tune in to the Situation Room at 5pm to see if Jack reads your answer on air.

And, we love to know where you’re writing from, so please include your city and state with your comment.

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Filed under: Government • On Jack's radar • United States
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